London: The coronavirus crisis could unleash destructive riots that may require military intervention to stamp out, according to advice handed to the British government which also warns the chaos would "overwhelm all attempts" to control the pandemic.

The paper, which was considered by the United Kingdom's powerful Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies on July 2 but now made public, predicted "grave challenges to public order" over the coming months unless the government and police handled the "volatile and highly complex" situation with care.

Riot police look on as fire rages through a building in Tottenham, north London, during the 2011 riots.Credit:Lewis Whyld/AP

Local lockdowns – similar to the drastic measures imposed on Melbourne amid a stubborn spike in COVID-19 infections – carry a "series of threats to social cohesion and public order", warned the paper's authors, professor Clifford Stott and Mark Harrison.

"Tensions resulting from the pandemic and lockdown have become inextricably bound with structural inequalities and international events," they wrote.

"While widespread urban disorder is not inevitable, currently, the situation in the UK is precariously balanced and the smallest error in policing…or policy could unleash a dynamic which will make the management of COVID-19 all but impossible.

"Put simply, a serious deterioration of public order could overwhelm all attempts to control contagion, overwhelm hospitals, the criminal justice system and hinder revival of the economy."

The paper said a major outbreak could be comparable or bigger in scale to riots across England sparked by the police shooting of Mark Duggan in London in 2011. Five people died during the riots, which caused hundreds of millions of pounds in damage.

The academics said that "some media narratives" had reinforced claims that Asian and Black people in areas hit by local lockdowns were potentially responsible for disproportionately spreading the virus.

Citing Black Lives Matter demonstrations in the UK and counter-protests by right-wing groups, the paper highlighted increasing inequalities and "perceptions of police legitimacy" in the country.

"Increased polarisation of political discourse makes conflict and protest more likely and this may mutate into new and more violent forms," it said.

"There is already a view among London’s black community that large gatherings on beaches involving predominantly white and older communities, largely see no police intervention of scale.

"In contrast, large gatherings in streets or parks with music and dancing with predominantly Black, Asian and minority ethnic communities or young people result in police intervention. A sense of racial injustice, inequality and discrimination is increasingly strengthened at a time of already tense relations."

The paper was considered by SAGE – the group charged with advising government ministers on how to respond to the pandemic – before Downing Street ordered a raft of new measures to control to a spike of infections in England's north.

The document was made public with a warning that it should be "viewed in context".

"The paper was the best assessment of the evidence at the time of writing," SAGE said. "The picture is developing rapidly and, as new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly."

Stott and Harrison said a serious outbreak of public disorder would have a major impact on public health and help spread the disease. This scenario would make the re-imposition of lockdown measures "next to impossible" and "would be likely to require military support".

"Policing has a vital role to play in preventing disorder but coordinated action is needed across Whitehall and with local authorities. This is not simply a policing issue."

They also said police were in a difficult position because some members of the public wanted a hard-line response to lockdown breaches while others felt that action represents an infringement on rights to freedom of association and assembly.

"In other words, approaches and tactics which enhance perceptions of legitimacy with some communities can ironically undermine them with others, so the balance is difficult to achieve."

The UK's official death toll stands at more than 46,000 but it thought to exceed 65,000 once direct and indirect fatalities from the pandemic are taken into account.

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