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The right budget for tough times
Most state budgets make spending commitments in the tens and maybe hundreds of millions of dollars. On top of that, there may be a few big-ticket items that catch the headlines. This is not one of those budgets. With total spending this year expected to tip $90 billion, previous big-spending budgets will pale in comparison to Treasurer Tim Pallas' efforts this year.
On Tuesday, Mr Pallas added more to his already sizeable list of sectors and projects that will get billion-dollar-plus funding. All up, it is astonishing in its scale: $2 billion for research and technology; $5.3 billion on public and affordable housing; $2.2 billion for the Suburban Rail Loop; $2 billion on the Geelong train line; $1.48 billion for 100 new trams; $1.6 billion towards clean energy; $3 billion for school upgrades; $1.6 billion for road network and infrastructure initiatives.
In total, the government is expected to pour an extra $49 billion above its recurring expenditure into the economy over the next four years. And its "big build" infrastructure projects are are about to get a whole lot bigger, with annual spending going from about $12 billion in recent years to nearly $20 billion over the next four years.
In normal times, such spending would have seen even the most audacious Keynesian economist calling for restraint. But the economic repair job facing the government is immense. Treasury estimates that 200,000 people lost their job during the state's first round of coronavirus restrictions in April and May and another 73,000 in the second wave in August and September. Real gross state product is expected to fall by 4 per cent this financial year.
It is hard to argue with the general thrust of this budget. As it was being rolled out on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank was cautioning governments against reducing support for the economy too soon, warning the effects of the coronavirus recession will linger. At this stage, there is no fear that is going to happen in Victoria.
The government had little choice. The usual driver of growth in Victoria, an increasing population, is expected to stay relatively flat in the forseeable future. And with much of the business sector still trying to get back on its feet, government had to lead.
While it certainly has done that on the spending front, Mr Pallas offered little in the way of actual reform on a scale akin to the NSW government, which last week announced plans to phase out stamp duty in favour of an annual property tax.
Instead, it is relying on spending across the economy. Net debt is predicted to hit $155 billion within three years, more than 28 per cent of Victoria’s total annual economic output. Some of the budget's forecasts seem optimistic, including the prediction that the economy will rally to its pre-COVID levels by the end of next year. Spending on the public service needs to be watched – the state's public service bill has increased 9.5 per cent this year.
So it is essential that this budget kick-starts the economy. Failure would have terrible financial consequences for the state's coffers.
This is a budget for its time. Victorians have suffered more than most Australians through the pandemic, so it required an equivalent response. But as time goes on, and the spending subsides, it will become increasingly vital to ensure that those who were hit hardest by the pandemic are not forgotten, or left behind while the rest of the state recovers.
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