Saturday, 4 Apr 2020

The 100 seats where tactical votes could win it for Boris and Brexit

Revealed: The 100 seats where tactical votes could win it for Boris and Brexit

On Thursday, the country goes to the polls in the most important election for a generation.

At stake is not just who occupies 10 Downing Street for the next five years but the fate of Brexit.

With many polls showing a narrowing of the gap between the two major parties, Tory strategists warn a few thousand votes could make the difference between Boris Johnson or Jeremy Corbyn running the UK.

And with so many marginal seats in play, a few tens of thousands of votes could mean the difference between victory for the Tories and defeat.

Across the country, up to 100,000 Labour and Momentum activists are flooding these critical marginals to try to swing it for Mr Corbyn.

Meanwhile, senior Tory strategists fear support for the Brexit Party could split the Leave vote in tight races and let in Labour MPs through the back door. There are two ways you can make a difference.

Today the Mail publishes its tactical voting guide to pinpoint the 100 Labour seats where Brexit Party supporters could vote Tory to ensure a Leave-backing MP enters Parliament, and the seats where Labour Brexiteers should back Mr Johnson’s candidate. 

The second way to make a difference is by taking up the Conservatives’ offer to help voters who may struggle to get to the polling station on Thursday – especially if the weather is bad.

Mr Johnson has launched a website called Your Plan to Vote which will put voters in touch with Tory activists in their area. 

By filling in a few personal details, you can make sure you don’t miss out on your chance to influence the UK’s future in this critical election.

As well as offering help with getting to the polling booth, the site will send reminder emails to make sure you don’t forget in five days’ time. 

You will also be asked approximately what time you plan to go to the polling booth – whether in the morning, at lunchtime, during the afternoon or evening – to help organisers arrange transport, and whether you are voting with friends, family, neighbours or on your own.

There is a box to tick to confirm that you need help getting to the polling station – or if you simply want an email reminder on the day. 

Voters can also share their plan for election day with friends on Facebook or Twitter.

The site says: ‘The best way to get a friend to vote Conservative is if they know you’ve planned to vote yourself.’ 

100 Labour seats where Brexit Party supporters could vote Tory to stop Labour

Nigel Farage’s Brexit party began the election campaign promising to stand candidates in every constituency. 

Farage, however, backtracked after complaints from many of his supporters that he could deprive the Conservatives of a majority, thereby putting Brexit at risk. 

The Brexit Party withdrew all its candidates from Conservative-held seats, but will be fighting Labour-held seats, some of which Boris Johnson needs to snatch if he is to win a majority. 

On Thursday, a number of Brexit Party MEPs resigned, and encouraged all Brexit Party supporters to vote Tory.

The seats below are the ones the Conservatives have the best chance of winning from Labour — and where people who want to vote for the Brexit party should reconsider, and vote Conservative to make sure Brexit happens on January 31.

It should be noted that according to a major YouGov poll last week, Nigel Farage’s party has no chance of winning in any of these constituencies. 

So these are crunch Labour-held seats where a Brexit Party vote, however well intentioned, is effectively a vote for Jeremy Corbyn . . . whose Brexit policy is nothing less than a shambles that will see Britain plunged into an acrimonious and costly second referendum.

1. Ashfield

2017: Lab majority 441

YouGov projection for 2019:

Lab 32%

Con 43%

Brexit 11%

Vote Lee Anderson to defeat Natalie Fleet

2. Ashton-under-Lyne

2017: Lab maj 11,295

2019 poll: Lab 43%

Con 33%

Brexit 15%

Vote Dan Costello to unseat Angela Rayner

3. Barnsley East

2017: Lab maj 13,283

2019 poll: Lab 39%

Con 27%

Brexit 24%

Vote Adam Gregg to unseat Stephanie Peacock

4. Batley and Spen

2017: Lab maj 8,961

2019 poll: Lab 44%

Con 36%

Brexit 8%

Vote Mark Brooks to defeat Tracy Brabin

5. Barrow and Furness

2017: Lab maj 209

2019 poll: Lab 35%

Con 50%

Brexit 7%

Vote Simon Fell to defeat Chris Altree

6. Bedford

2017: Lab maj 789

2019 poll: Lab 39%

Con 40%

Brexit 6%

Vote Ryan Henson to unseat Mohammad Yasin

7. Birmingham Erdington

2017: Lab maj 7,285

2019 poll: Lab 47%

Con 36%

Brexit 8%

Vote Robert Alden to unseat Jack Dromey (pictured)

8. Birmingham Northfield

2017: Lab maj 4,667

2019 poll: Lab 43%

Con 40%

Brexit 7%

Vote Gary Sambrook to unseat Richard Burden

9. Bishop Auckland

2017: Lab maj 502

2019 poll: Lab 39%

Con 47%

Brexit 8%

Vote Dehenna Davison to unseat Helen Goodman

10. Blackpool South

2017: Lab maj 2,523

2019 poll: Lab 37%

Con 43%

Brexit 11%

Vote Scott Benton to unseat Gordon Marsden

11. Blyth Valley

2017: Lab maj 7,915

2019 poll: Lab 43%

Con 37%

Brexit: 9%

Vote Ian Levy to defeat Susan Dungworth

12. Bolsover

2017: Lab maj 5,288

2019 poll: Lab 38%

Con 42%

Brexit 12%

Vote Mark Fletcher to unseat Dennis Skinner

13. Bolton North East

2017: Lab maj 3,797

2019 poll: Lab 42%

Con 41%

Brexit 9%

Vote Mark Logan to defeat David Crausby

14. Bradford South

2017: Lab maj 6,700

2019 poll: Lab 42%

Con 37%

Brexit 12%

Vote Narinder Sekhon to unseat Judith Cummins

15. Burnley

2017: Lab maj 6,353

2019 poll: Lab 39%

Con 31%

Brexit 16%

Vote Antony Higginbotham to unseat Julie Cooper

16. Bury North

2017: Lab maj 4,375

2019 poll: Lab 43%

Con 43%

Brexit 6%

Vote James Daly to unseat James Frith

17. Bury South

2017: Lab maj 5,965

2019 poll: Lab 40%

Con 43%

Brexit 5%

Vote Christian Wakeford to defeat Lucy Burke

18. Carshalton & WALLINGTON

2017: LibDem maj 1,369

2019 poll: LD 41%

Con 40%

Brexit 5%

Vote Elliot Colburn to unseat Tom Brake

19. Chesterfield

2017: Lab maj 9,605

2019 poll: Lab 42%

Con 36%

Brexit 9% 

Vote Leigh Higgins to unseat Toby Perkins

20. City of Durham

2017: Lab maj 12,364

2019 poll: Lab 43%

Con 32%

Brexit 9%

Vote William Morgan to defeat Mary Foy

21. Clwyd South

2017: Lab maj 4,356

2019 poll: Lab 41%

Con 43%

Brexit 6%

Vote Simon Baynes to unseat Susan Elan Jones

22. Colne Valley

2017: Lab maj 915

2019 poll: Lab 39%

Con 44%

Brexit 6%

Vote Jason McCartney to unseat Thelma Walker

23. Coventry North West

2017: Lab maj 8,580

2019 poll: Lab 42%

Con 40%

Brexit 7%

n Vote Clare Golby to defeat Taiwo Owatemi

24. Coventry South

2017: Lab maj 7,947

2019 poll: Lab 43%

Con 40%

Brexit 5%

n Vote Mattie Heaven to defeat Zarah Sultana

25. Crewe and Nantwich

2017: Lab maj 48

2019 poll: Lab 39%

Con 43%

Brexit 7%

n Vote Kieran Mullan to unseat Laura Smith

26. Croydon Central

2017: Lab maj 5,652

2019 poll: Lab 45%

Con 39%

Brexit 4%

n Vote Mario Creatura to unseat Sarah Jones

27. Dagenham and Rainham

2017: Lab maj 4,652

2019 poll: Lab 38%

Con 40%

Brexit 11%

n Vote Damian White to unseat Jon Cruddas (above)

28. Darlington

2017: Lab maj 3,280

2019 poll: Lab 41%

Con 43%

Brexit 7%

n Vote Peter Gibson to unseat Jenny Chapman

29. Delyn

2017: Lab maj 4,240

2019 poll: Lab 43%

Con 43%

Brexit 6%

n Vote Rob Roberts to unseat David Hanson

30. Derby North

2017: Lab maj 2,015

2019 poll: Lab 36%

Con 44%

Brexit 6%

n Vote Amanda Solloway to defeat Tony Tinley

31. Dewsbury

2017: Lab maj 3,321

2019 poll: Lab 41%

Con 42%

Brexit 6%

n Vote Mark Eastwood to unseat Paula Sherriff

32. Don Valley

2017: Lab maj 5,169

2019 poll: Lab 33%

Con 41%

Brexit 14%

n Vote Nick Fletcher to unseat Caroline Flint

33. Doncaster Central

2017: Lab maj 10,131

2019 poll: Lab 40%

Con 33%

Brexit 15%

n Vote Roberto Weeden-Sanz to unseat Rosie Winterton

34. Doncaster North

2017: Lab maj 14,024

2019 poll: Lab 43%

Con 29%

Brexit 19%

n Vote Katrina Sale to unseat Ed Miliband

35. Dudley North

2017: Lab maj 22

2019 poll: Lab 39%

Con 46%

Brexit 6%

n Vote Marco Longhi to defeat Melanie Dudley

36. Eltham

2017: Lab maj 6,296

2019 poll: Lab 45%

Con 38%

Brexit 5%

n Vote Louie French to unseat Clive Efford

37. Enfield North

2017: Lab maj 10,247

2019 poll: Lab 46%

Con 37%

Brexit 5%

n Vote Joanne Laban to defeat Feryal Clark

38. Enfield Southgate

2017: Lab maj 4,355

2019 poll: Lab 45%

Con 40%

Brexit 3%

n Vote David Burrowes to unseat Bambos Charalambous

39. Erith and Thamesmead

2017: Lab maj 10,014

2019 poll: Lab 41%

Con 38%

Brexit 8%

n Vote Joe Robertson to defeat Abena Oppong-Asare

40. Gedling

2017: Lab maj 4,694

2019 poll: Lab 44%

Con 41%

Brexit 6%

n Vote Tom Randall to unseat Vernon Coaker (above)

41. Gower

2017: Lab maj 3,269

2019 poll: Lab 43%

Con 42%

Brexit 5%

n Vote Francesca O’Brien to unseat Tonia Antoniazzi

42. Great Grimsby

2017: Lab maj 2,565

2019 poll: Lab 37%

Con 42%

Brexit 13%

n Vote Lia Nici to unseat Melanie Onn

43. Halifax

2017: Lab maj 5,376

2019 poll: Lab 43%

Con 36%

Brexit 12%

n Vote Kashif Ali to unseat Holly Lynch

44. Hartlepool

2017: Lab maj 7,650

2019 poll: Lab 40%

Con 31%

Brexit 23%

n Vote Stefan Houghton to unseat Mike Hill

45. Hemsworth

2017: Lab maj 10,174

2019 poll: Lab 39%

Con 33%

Brexit 16%

n Vote Louise Calland to unseat Jon Trickett

46. Heywood and Middleton

2017: Lab maj 7,617

2019 poll: Lab 40%

Con 38%

Brexit 14%

n Vote Chris Clarkson to unseat Liz McInnes

47. High Peak

2017: Lab maj 2,322

2019 poll: Lab 42%

Con 42%

Brexit 5%

n Vote Robert Largan to unseat Ruth George

48. Hyndburn

2017: Lab maj 5,815

2019 poll: Lab 39%

Con 43%

Brexit 10%

n Vote Sarah Britcliffe to unseat Graham Jones

49. Ilford North

2017: Lab maj 9,639

2019 poll: Lab 47%

Con 38%

Brexit 4%

n Vote Howard Berlin to unseat Wes Streeting

50. Ipswich

2017: Lab maj 831

2019 poll: Lab 39%

Con 43%

Brexit 7%

n Vote Tom Hunt to unseat Sandy Martin

51. Keighley

2017: Lab maj 249

2019 poll: Lab 42%

Con 43%

Brexit 7%

n Vote Robbie Moore to unseat John Grogan (above)

52. Kingston-upon-Hull East

2017: Lab maj 10,396

2019 poll: Lab 40%

Con 29%

Brexit 21%

n Vote Rachel Storer to unseat Karl Turner

53. Kingston-upon-Hull West and Hessle

2017: Lab maj 8,025

2019 poll: Lab 43%

Con 31%

Brexit 16%

n Vote Scott Bell to unseat Emma Hardy

54. Lancaster and fleetwood

2017: Lab maj 6,661

2019 poll: Lab 43%

Con 40%

Brexit 6%

n Vote Louise Thistlethwaite to unseat Cat Smith

55. Leigh

2017: Lab maj 9,554

2019 poll: Lab 39%

Con 40%

Brexit 12%

n Vote James Grundy to unseat Joanne Platt (above)

56. Lincoln

2017: Lab maj 1,538

2019 poll: Lab 44%

Con 41%

Brexit 7%

n Vote Karl McCartney to defeat Karen Lee

57. Llanelli

2017: Lab maj 12,024

2019 poll: Lab 43%

Con 27%

Brexit 14%

n Vote Tamara Reay to unseat Nia Griffith

58. Makerfield

2017: Lab maj 13,542

2019 poll: Lab 44%

Con 33%

Brexit 13%

n Vote Nick King to unseat Yvonne Fovargue

59. Newport East

2017: Lab maj 8,003

2019 poll: Lab 45%

Con 35%

Brexit 8%

n Vote Mark Brown to unseat Jessica Morden

60. Newport West

2017: Lab maj 5,658

2019 poll: Lab 43%

Con 39%

Brexit 7%

n Vote Matthew Evans to defeat Ruth Jones

61. Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford

2017: Lab maj 14,499

2019 poll: Lab 40%

Con 32%

Brexit 18%

n Vote Andrew Lee to unseat Yvette Cooper

62. North West Durham

2017: Lab maj 8,792

2019 poll: Lab 43%

Con 34%

Brexit 12%

n Vote Richard Holden to unseat Laura Pidcock

63. Oldham East and Saddleworth

2017: Lab maj 8,182

2019 poll: Lab 42%

Con 35%

Brexit 12%

n Vote Tom Lord to unseat Debbie Abrahams (above)

64. Penistone and Stocksbridge

2017: Lab maj 1,322

2019 poll: Lab 34%

Con 43%

Brexit 12%

n Vote Miriam Cates to defeat Francyne Johnson

65. Peterborough

2017: Lab maj 607

2019 poll: Lab 39%

Con 43%

Brexit 7%

n Vote Paul Bristow to unseat Lisa Forbes

66. Plymouth Sutton

AND Devonport

2017: Lab maj 6,807

2019 poll: Lab 45%

Con 40%

Brexit 6%

n Vote Rebecca Smith to unseat Luke Pollard

67. Reading East

2017: Lab maj 3,749

2019 poll: Lab 43%

Con 39%

Brexit 2%

n Vote Craig Morley to unseat Matt Rodda

68. Redcar

2017: Lab maj 9,485

2019 poll: Lab 41%

Con 33%

Brexit 13%

n Vote Jacob Young to unseat Anna Turley

69. Rother Valley

2017: Lab maj 3,882

2019 poll: Lab 33%

Con 40%

Brexit 16%

n Vote Alexander Stafford to defeat Sophie Wilson

70. Rotherham

2017: Lab maj 11,387

2019 poll: Lab 43%

Con 29%

Brexit 19%

n Vote Gerri Hickton to unseat Sarah Champion

71. Scunthorpe

2017: Lab maj 3,431

Lab 40%

Con 42%

Brexit 10%

n Vote Holly Mumby-Croft to unseat Nic Dakin

72. Sedgefield

2017: Lab maj 6,059

Lab 41%

Con 40%

Brexit 9%

n Vote Paul Howell to unseat Phil Wilson

73. Sheffield South East

2017: Lab maj 11,798

Lab 45%

Con 33%

Brexit 13%

n Vote Marc Bayliss to unseat Clive Betts

74. Stalybridge and Hyde

2017: Lab maj 8,084

Lab 43%

Con 39%

Brexit 7%

n Vote Tayub Amjad to unseat Jonathan Reynolds

75. Stockton North

2017: Lab maj 8,715

Lab 42%

Con 39%

Brexit 11%

n Vote Steven Jackson to unseat Alex Cunningham

76. Stockton South

2017: Lab maj 888

Lab 41%

Con 47%

Brexit 6%

n Vote Matt Vickers to unseat Paul Williams

77. Stoke-on-Trent Central

2017: Lab maj 3,897

Lab 39%

Con 40%

Brexit 13%

n Vote Jo Gideon to unseat Gareth Snell

78. Stoke-on-Trent North

2017: Lab maj 2,359

Lab 37%

Con 42%

Brexit 11%

n Vote Jonathan Gullis to unseat Ruth Smeeth

79. Stroud

2017: Lab maj 687

Lab 43%

Con 47%

Brexit 3%

n Vote Siobhan Baillie to unseat David Drew

80. Torfaen

2017: Lab maj 10,240

Lab 45%

Con 31%

Brexit 12%

n Vote Graham Smith to defeat Nick Thomas-Symonds

81. Tynemouth

2017: Lab maj 11,666

Lab 46%

Con 39%

Brexit 6%

n Vote Lewis Bartoli to unseat Alan Campbell

82. Vale of Clwyd

2017: Lab maj 2,379

Lab 41%

Con 43%

Brexit 6%

n Vote James Davies to unseat Chris Ruane

83. Wakefield

2017: Lab maj 2,176

Lab 36%

Con 47%

Brexit 9%

n Vote Imran Ahmad-Khan to unseat Mary Creagh

84. Walsall South

2017: Lab maj 8,892

Lab 43%

Con 39%

Brexit 8%

n Vote Gurjit Bains to defeat Valerie Vaz

85. Wansbeck

2017: Lab maj 10,435

Lab 44%

Con 32%

Brexit 9%

n Vote Jack Gebhard to unseat Ian Lavery

86. Warrington North

2017: Lab maj 9,582

Lab 42%

Con 36%

Brexit 10%

n Vote Wendy Maisey to defeat Charlotte Nichols

87. Warrington South

2017: Lab maj 2,549

Lab 41%

Con 45%

Brexit 4%

n Vote Andy Carter to unseat Faisal Rashid

88. Warwick and Leamington

2017: Lab maj 1,206

Lab 39%

Con 42%

Brexit 3%

n Vote Jack Rankin to unseat Matt Western

89. Weaver Vale

2017: Lab maj 3,928

Lab 42%

Con 42%

Brexit 5%

n Vote Adam Wordsworth to unseat Mike Amesbury

90. Wentworth AND Dearne

2017: Lab maj 14,803

Lab 45%

Con 33%

Brexit 14%

n Vote Emily Barley to unseat John Healey (above)

91. West Bromwich East

2017: Lab maj 7,713

Lab 39%

Con 40%

Brexit 9%

n Vote Nicola Richards to defeat Ibrahim Dogus

92. West Bromwich West

2017: Lab maj 4,460

Lab 38%

Con 41%

Brexit 13%

n Vote Shaun Bailey to defeat James Cunningham

93. Wirral South

2017: Lab maj 8,323

Lab 45%

Con 39%

Brexit 5%

n Vote Stewart Gardiner to unseat Alison McGovern

94. Wirral West

2017: Lab maj 5,365

Lab 45%

Con 39%

Brexit 6%

n Vote Laura Evans to unseat Margaret Greenwood

95. Wolverhampton North East

2017: Lab maj 4,587

Lab 39%

Con 43%

Brexit 10%

n Vote Jane Stevenson to unseat Emma Reynolds (above)

96. Wolverhampton South East

2017: Lab maj 8,514

Lab 45%

Con 36%

Brexit 11%

n Vote Ahmed Ejaz to unseat Pat McFadden

97. Wolverhampton South West

2017: Lab maj 2,185

Lab 41%

Con 47%

Brexit 5%

n Vote Stuart Anderson to unseat Eleanor Smith

98. Workington

2017: Lab maj 3,925

Lab 40%

Con 41%

Brexit 9%

n Vote Mark Jenkinson to unseat Sue Hayman

99. Worsley and Eccles South

2017: Lab maj 8,379

Lab 42%

Con 39%

Brexit 8%

n Vote Arnie Saunders to unseat Barbara Keeley

100. Wrexham

2017: Lab maj 1,832

Lab 38%

Con 42%

Brexit 7%

n Vote Sarah Atherton to defeat Mary Wimbury

Where Labor-supporting Brexiteers could vote Tory to get the job done 

According to YouGov, 35 per cent of people who voted Labour at the 2015 General Election went on to vote Leave in the 2016 referendum.

Jeremy Corbyn — a lifelong Brexit campaigner until three years ago — may or may not have changed his position, but many Labour voters still want us to leave the EU.

Some are so appalled by Labour’s flip-flopping on the issue and Corbyn’s inability to say what he now thinks, that they might consider voting Conservative this time to make sure Brexit is delivered.

These are seats which Labour has no real prospect of winning in any case, so habitual Labour supporters can vote Conservative without feeling they are depriving their own party of a seat.

101. Argyll and Bue

SNP majority over Tories: 1,328

Labour voteL 6,044 last time

Vote Gary Mulvaney to unseat Bendan O’Hara

102. Ayrshire Central

SNP majority over Tories: 1,267

Labour vote: 11,762

Vote Derek Stillie to unseat Philippa Whitford

103. Ayrshire North and Arran

SNP majority over Tories: 3,663 

Labour vote: 13,040

Vote David Rocks to unseat Patricia Gibson

104. Bath

Lib Dem majority: 5,694

Labour vote: 7,279

Vote Annabel Tall to unseat Wera Hobhouse  

Where Tory supporters could vote for a minority party to keep Labour out

Vote Lib Dem in:

110. Bermondsey and Old Southwark

The LibDems’ promise to rescind Article 50 is anathema to many Conservatives, but contrary to Jo Swinson’s hubris at the beginning of the election campaign, there is zero chance of her finding herself in a position to do so.

The Tories can’t win here, but there is a chance the LibDems could overhaul Labour’s 12,972 majority in what used to be a LibDem seat.

Vote Humaira Ali to unseat Neil Coyle. (2017: Lab 31,161, LD 18,189, Con 7,581)

111. Cambridge

Cambridge was a Conservative seat in the 1980s, but the party has fallen into third place in recent years. The LibDems have a far better chance of overcoming Labour’s 12,661 majority, especially as the election is outside the university term and Labour-voting students will have gone home.

Vote Rod Cantrill to unseat Daniel Zeichner (2017: Lab 29,032, LD 16,371, Con 9,133)

112. Sheffield Hallam

Nick Clegg’s old seat was lost to Labour in 2017 in one of the biggest upsets of the night. The Conservatives are in a poor third place according to the latest YouGov poll, but they can help the LibDems keep the seat out of Corbyn’s clutches.

Vote Laura Gordon to defeat Olivia Blake (2017: Lab 21,881, LD 19,756, Con 13,561)

Vote Plaid Cymru in:

113. Arfon

Plaid Cymru already holds Arfon, but on a wafer-thin majority of 92. The Tories were in a poor third place last time and the YouGov poll predicts a similar result on Thursday, so the priority of Conservative voters should be to deprive Corbyn of a victory. One thing is for sure: there is no risk of accidentally letting Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price into Number 10.

Vote Hywel Williams to defeat Steffie Williams Roberts (2017: PC 11,519, Lab 11,427, Con 4,614)

 

 

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