Ukraine: West urged to draw 'red lines' in spite of nuclear threat

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Russia is thought to have the largest supply of nuclear weapons in the world, with around 6,257 nuclear warheads comprising 1,458 active weapons, 3,039 available to be deployed and 1,760 retired, according to Statistica. During the first week of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, he placed the country’s nuclear weapons forces on high alert.

He said: “Western countries aren’t only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major NATO countries are making aggressive statements about our country.

“So I order to move Russia’s deterrence forces to a special regime of duty.”

This prompted fears around the world of the potential of a nuclear attack and after a month experts say it is unclear if Putin would go ahead with a nuclear attack.

Fears Russia could order a nuclear strike have been increasing with Putin seen with his “nuclear football” briefcase while touring Belarus earlier this week.

The black briefcase can launch a nuclear attack remotely and was seen being carried by one of Putin’s team as they arrived to meet Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko.

The same briefcase was seen being carried when Putin attended the funeral of a far-right politician in a Moscow Cathedral last week.

Putin warned that Russia will never depend on the West again and he had no doubts about his decision to invade Ukraine. 

He said: “Its goals are absolutely clear and noble. It’s clear that we didn’t have a choice. It was the right decision.”

Russia has a “Dead Hand” system, also known as the “Perimeter” system from the Cold War, and is thought to be the most destructive nuclear system on Earth.

It is an automatic control system which means if Russia is attacked by nuclear weapons it retaliates with a nuclear strike.

The system can carry around 30 of the world’s most dangerous nuclear warheads, firing them all at once, according to some reports.

In 2011, Russian commander Sergei Karakaev, admitted that the Perimeter system was still functioning and on duty.

He told KP.RU: “Yes, the Perimeter system exists today – she is on combat duty.

“And when the need arises for a retaliatory strike, when there is no way to bring a signal to some part of the launchers, this command can come from these missiles from the Perimeter.”

The Federation of American Scientists reports that the bulk of Russia’s nuclear warheads are located to the country’s west.

Russia has almost 20 known missile bases including Darazhnya and Pervomaysk located on the coast.

Russia’s nuclear stockpile was increased following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

The US has a nuclear arsenal of 5,600 warheads and together Russia and the US have around 93 percent of all nuclear weapons on earth.

The UK currently has 225 nuclear weapons – of which 120 are available for deployment – operating under Trident.

Six other countries known to have nuclear arsenals: China, France, Pakistan, India, Israel and North Korea.

Experts are unsure if Putin would go ahead with a first nuclear strike.

Patricia Lewis, director of the international security programme at the think-tank Chatham House, told the PA news agency: “Now he’s moved to a situation of combat, he can [launch a nuclear attack]. But will he? We don’t know. This is the problem.

“Of course, he wants to frighten us. And I think Russia has long worked out that the West is far more frightened of Russian nuclear weapons than Russia is frightened of Western nuclear weapons, and I think that’s true.”

She added: “There is a possibility to retaliate against conventional force with nuclear weapons under Western doctrines, but it is generally believed that would be a last resort.

“I think there’s been a sense over the last decade that Putin, along with [North Korean leader] Kim Jong-un and [former US president] Donald Trump, are people who could have just launched a nuclear weapon. So there’s always been this unpredictability… I don’t want to overplay it, but I don’t want to downplay it either.”

Deputy director-general of RUSI (Royal United Services Institute), Professor Malcolm Chalmers, told PA that he thought an attack was “unlikely”.

He reasoned: “Because any use of nuclear weapons would open up such a Pandora’s box, and the possibility of escalation to the use of more nuclear weapons once one country has used them, the pressure on other nuclear weapon states to use them in response would be very considerable…the Russians understand that and so do the west. So it’s a paradox.”

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