Ukraine: Russians must 'dig in and wait for winter' says Clarke

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Security and defence analyst Professor Michael Clarke has said that Russia will be forced to “dig in and wait for winter” as dwindling troops make it near impossible to consolidate positions in the eastern regions of Ukraine in the face of renewed counter-offensives. Professor Clarke suggested that Russia faces “a problem” over whether or not to defend Severodonetsk, a city they claimed several months ago, and could be pushed back “further to the east” as their retreat looks set to continue. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has appeared evermore optimistic of success following the last few weeks, appearing in the recently liberated town of Izium on Wednesday, but western leaders have urged caution. 

Professor Clarke said: “The Ukrainians now control the key road between Savatova and Kremenna and they look as if they might be trying to encircle the Russians from the north in Severodonetsk. 

“That gives the Russians a problem. If they cannot, or will not, fight for Severodonetsk, then their next plausible defence line is probably some sort of major dog leg further to the east. 

“Whatever they do, the Russians cannot reinforce their positions very quickly. Somewhere, they are going to have to dig in and wait for winter.”

President Volodymyr Zelensky today promised he would lead Ukraine to victory in its war against Russia as he visited recaptured towns. 

Russian forces suffered a stunning reversal this month after Ukrainian troops made a rapid armoured thrust in the northeastern region of Kharkiv, forcing a rushed and chaotic Russian withdrawal.

Mr Zelensky made a surprise visit to Izium – until four days ago Russia’s main bastion and logistics hub in the region – where he watched as the Ukrainian flag was raised in front of the charred city council building.

In a social media post after the ceremony, he said: “Our blue-yellow flag is already flying in de-occupied Izium. And it will be so in every Ukrainian city and village.”

But on the main thoroughfare, the signs of Russia’s brutal “scorched earth” tactics, in which whole areas were razed to the ground, were still evident. A derelict bath house had a hole blasted in its side; meat shops, pharmacies, a shoe shop and a beauty salon had been sprayed with shrapnel.

“The view is shocking, but it is not shocking for me,” Mr Zelensky said. Comparing the scenes of devastation to those in cities near Kyiv recaptured from Russian forces early in the war, he added: “The same destroyed buildings, killed people.”

Earlier on Wednesday, an emotional-looking Mr Zelensky handed out medals to soldiers who freed the Balakliya area, another town retaken in recent days. 

The Ukrainian President says his army has liberated around 8,000 square km (3,100 square miles) of territory so far this month, a swath of land nearly equivalent to the island of Cyprus. 

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But while Ukraine’s sudden advances over the past week have cheered its supporters in the West, leaders say it is too soon to know whether Kyiv can keep up the pace.

US President Joe Biden said: “It’s clear the Ukrainians have made significant progress. But I think it’s going to be a long haul.” 

German Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht said it was too early to tell whether Ukraine’s “remarkable success” marks a turning point because Moscow has yet to react.

Russian forces still control about a fifth of Ukraine in the south and east, but Kyiv is now on the offensive in both areas.

The White House, which has provided billions of dollars of weapons and support to Ukraine, has said the United States is likely to announce a new military aid package in the “coming days”.

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