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Robert Jenrick warns the UK to brace for 'difficult economic year'
Cabinet minister Robert Jenrick warns the UK to brace for ‘the most difficult economic year of your lifetime’ with price of cutting off Russian oil set to add ANOTHER £1,200 to household bills
- Robert Jenrick has warned the country could be looking at ‘an energy crisis unrivalled since the 1970s’
- He said the government had to ‘level with the public’ that standing up to Putin could ’cause difficult year’
- Also said inflation predicted could peak at 10 per cent and see increasing pressure on energy bills
- Average cost of a litre of unleaded 155.62p. Price of diesel at record 161.28p. Highest weekly rise since 2003
- Filling up a family car is up from £68.60 to £85.59 in the past 12 months. Most larger cars now more than £100
- Fuel analysts believe the rate of increase is 5p per day hitting 175p by Monday and could even reach £2
- Global oil prices at highest level for 14 years this week – spiking to $140 per barrel – settling at around $127
- Click here for MailOnline’s liveblog with the latest updates on the Ukraine crisis
Robert Jenrick has warned that the UK could face ‘the most difficult economic year that we’ve seen in our lifetime’ amid the heavy sanctions imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.
The cabinet minister described how the country could be looking at ‘an energy crisis unrivalled since the 1970s’ and said the government had to ‘level with the public that standing up to Putin could cause the most difficult year for household incomes’.
He went on to say that the inflation that has been predicted could peak at 10 per cent and see increasing pressure on energy bills, not just for households but also for energy intensive industries and businesses.
It comes as experts from the Centre for Economics and Business Research predicted that the war in Ukraine could see another £1,259 added to household bills in the UK this year.
Speaking to Kirsty Wark on Newsnight Mr Jenrick said: ‘We could be looking at an energy crisis unrivalled since the 1970s and the forecast that we saw today suggests that household incomes could fall by a larger percentage this year that any time since records began in 1955.’
People fill up their their tanks at a Shell station in London on March 8 a petrol prices reach a new high in the UK
Robert Jenrick has warned that the UK could face ‘the most difficult economic year that we’ve seen in our lifetime’ amid the heavy sanctions imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine
Asked about whether Chancellor Rishi Sunak needed to take action he continued: ‘I think he may need to do something, it depends on the scale of the challenge. But it looks as if this is going to be the most difficult economic year that we’ve seen in my lifetime.’
Mr Jenrick went on to say that rising inflation would mean the government would need to take a ‘more pragmatic energy policy’.
He added: ‘If you see the kind of inflation that’s been predicted, potentially peaking at 10 per cent and you’re seeing this pressure on energy bills, not just for households but also for energy intensive industries and businesses, it’s going to be very difficult.
‘It also I think means that we need a more pragmatic energy policy where we balance all of our concerns.
‘Obviously net zero, which I’m personally very committed to, but also people’s household incomes and energy security in a far more nuanced way than we’ve seen in recent years.’
Asked if the economic difficulties could see some companies requiring a bailout he said: ‘Some might need that yes.’
The MP added: ‘You’ve now clearly got to wake up and balance net zero with other competing demands. Energy security and the pounds in the pockets of people in this country.
‘And that to me means, of course, continuing to go hell for leather for renewables which is ultimately the way out of this and guaranteeing our security.
‘But also, maximising the recovery of gas and oil in the North Sea. Potentially reopening – I personally was always a supporter of fracking. I don’t think it’s a quick fix, but I think we should be revisiting that question.’
His comments come as CEBR deputy chairman Doug McWilliams called on Mr Sunak to cut fuel duty or temporarily reduce VAT amid the war in Ukraine.
He told The Sun: ‘There has never been anything like it. It’s semi-wartime effect. I don’t think the Chancellor can get away with doing nothing.’
It also comes as Boris Johnson reportedly told ministers he wanted to see a return of fracking in the UK after the country followed the US and banned Russian oil imports, The Telegraph understands.
Yesterday Britain banned Russian oil imports as drivers started queuing for fuel after being hit by the steepest weekly hike in fuel prices in more than 18 years due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – with prices expected to keep rising.
Oil prices are rising at an alarming rate sparking warnings that petrol could soon hit £2 a litre – taking the cost of an average tank to more than £100 – an increase of around £17.
Unleaded hit an average record of £1.55 a litre yesterday, with industry sources saying it was likely to rise to £1.75 by next week as 5p is being added to the price every 24 hours in some areas. But prices at some forecourts are already pushing £1.80.
Motorists queued outside a Sainsbury’s petrol station in Cambridge yesterday as they rushed to fill up cars and jerry cans before petrol prices increase even further. There were also long lines at the pumps at a Tesco in neighbouring Suffolk. On social media there were also reports of queues at supermarket pumps in Lancashire.
US President Joe Biden has decided to ban Russian oil imports, toughening the toll on Russia’s economy in retaliation for its invasion of Ukraine, according to a person familiar with the matter, and the European Union this week will commit to phasing out its reliance on Russia for energy needs as soon as possible.
He went on to say that the inflation that has been predicted could peak at 10 per cent and see increasing pressure on energy bills, not just for households but also for energy intensive industries and businesses
One man was filling of fuel bottles and jerry cans in his boot in Cambridgeshire yesterday amid the rising fuel prices
Prices for petrol and diesel at the SOLO filling station on Clifton Street in Belfast, as oil prices continue to soar
Half of all people who drive to work say that fuel prices will stop them using their cars because they can’t afford to fill up
New data from leading office space provider Offices.co.uk reveals the huge impact rising fuel costs will have on the UK’s return to the office and the nations post pandemic recovery plans as the cost of living crisis worsens for UK consumers.
Offices.co.uk conducted a snap survey of over 1500 UK office workers who commute by car to their workplace.
Latest data from the AA shows Petrol has now reached an average of 155.62p a litre. Diesel is averaging 161.28p. A year ago, they averaged 124.32p and 127.25p a litre respectively.
This means that the cost of filling up an average 55 litre tank is now almost £18 more expensive, at almost £86 per tank compared to last year.
If the average prices reach over £2 per litre, it will bump the price of the average 55 litre tank to £110, some £24 more than at present but a whopping £42 a tank more expensive than last year.
This represents an enormous 60% increase in fuel costs in the 12 month period.
Johnny Ratcliffe of Offices.co.uk said ‘The cost of living crisis that UK workers are experiencing is reaching breaking point. Millions of households already facing the prospect of enormous price hikes in their home energy bills and rising food prices are now facing being unable to commute to their workplaces if the pump prices hit £2 per litre.
‘Our data shows just how serious an implication this is for the UK economy if almost half of workers surveyed say they won’t be able to afford to get to work anymore. The Government needs to step in urgently otherwise working from home will become the only option for millions of workers. The ones that are able to work from home that is. Everyone else? I dread to think’.
Filling the void without crippling EU economies will likely take some time – natural gas from Russia accounts for one-third of Europe’s consumption of the fossil fuel.
The White House said Biden would announce on Tuesday ‘actions to continue to hold Russia accountable for its unprovoked and unjustified war on Ukraine.’
The US does not import Russian natural gas.
Boris Johnson has said the move to ban Russian oil and gas will punish Vladimir Putin’s regime but will be introduced in a way that ‘won’t affect’ UK businesses.
Speaking to broadcasters, the Prime Minister said: ‘The UK is less exposed (than European allies) but clearly we do have diesel that comes from Russia and we can’t move overnight.
‘But we can certainly do it and we can do it in a way that doesn’t disrupt supply, that ensures we have substitute supplies on stream in an orderly way and in a timetable that won’t affect UK business, won’t affect UK manufacturing, road haulage or other parts of our industry but will punish the regime of Vladimir Putin.’
Business & Energy Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng yesterday revealed that the UK would ‘phase out the import of Russian oil and oil products by the end of 2022’.
He added: ‘This transition will give the market, businesses and supply chains more than enough time to replace Russian imports – which make up 8% of UK demand.
‘Businesses should use this year to ensure a smooth transition so that consumers will not be affected. The government will also work with companies through a new Taskforce on Oil to support them to make use of this period in finding alternative supplies.
‘The UK is a significant producer of oil and oil products, plus we hold significant reserves.’
He added that the market has ‘already begun to ostracise Russian oil, with nearly 70% of it currently unable to find a buyer’.
‘Finally, while the UK is not dependent on Russian natural gas – 4% of our supply – I am exploring options to end this altogether,’ he wrote.
The UK is planning to buy more oil from the US, Saudi Arabia and the Middle East instead, but wants nine months to sort out the deals.
The move is expected to be announced later and will lay out the ban and its phase-in period, which is expected to last about a year to try to stop people panic-buying fuel at a time when energy prices are rocketing.
There will not be a ban on Russian gas – but this is still under discussion within the Government. US President Joe Biden has decided he will ban Russian oil and gas immediately.
It came as Rishi Sunak was urged to put the City of London on a ‘semi-wartime setting’ amid fears the Ukraine conflict could spill further into Europe. The Centre for Economics and Business Research has predicted that GDP growth this year will be slashed from 4.2% to 1.9% in 2022 and down to zero in 2023.
Amid fears energy bills could soon hit £4,000-a-month, the average price of a litre of petrol at UK forecourts rose from 149.2p on February 28 to 153.0p on Monday, according to the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS).
Average diesel prices rose from 153.4p to 158.6p over the same period. The weekly increases of 3.8p for petrol and 5.2p for diesel are the largest in records dating back to June 2003.
They mean the cost of filling up a typical 55-litre family car has increased by more than £2 over the past week. Figures from data firm Experian Catalist based on a different methodology to the one used by BEIS suggest the average cost per litre of petrol on Monday was 156.4p, while diesel was 162.3p.
Oil prices have spiked due to concerns over the reliability of supplies amid the war in Ukraine.
The price per barrel of Brent crude – which is the most commonly used way of measuring the UK’s oil price – reached 139 US dollars on Monday, which was its highest level in 14 years
There were long queues outside the Sainsbury’s petrol station as prices hit a record high due to the Ukraine crisis affecting oil prices.
Some drivers even took along extra containers to fill with petrol, with the price at pumps expected to go up again. UK petrol prices have hit an average of 155p a litre, according to the AA motoring group.
There were also queues at the Tesco in Ely, Cambridgeshire (pictured), and also in Suffolk and Lancashire
£179.9 for unleaded and £181.9 for diesel at the London Gateway services on the M1 in North London today
The price of a barrel of oil is spiking upwards and is expected to get worse as the US pushes for a global ban on buying Russian oil
Petrol prices are going up to record levels and will continue to rise in the coming week amid turmoil in Ukraine
The eyewatering rise in petrol prices, which will peak even higher in 2022
Sources of UK crude oil imports to Britain in 2020 (thousands tonnes) according to the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy
Ministers are also discussing possible financial help for businesses hit by soaring energy bills. Energy traders took fright yesterday over US-led efforts to promote a Western boycott of Russian oil and gas to further squeeze the ability of Moscow to fund Putin’s war machine.
Oil prices also continued to rise, sparking warnings that petrol could push toward £2 a litre – taking the cost of an average tank to more than £100. Unleaded hit a record £1.55 a litre yesterday, with industry sources saying it was likely to rise to £1.75.
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Black cab drivers are not driving around to pick up passengers to save money because 5p is being added to the cost of a litre of fuel every day in Britain.
The price at the pumps could hit a wallet-hammering 175p next week as average petrol prices on UK forecourts exceeded 155p for the first time.
Global oil prices are at the highest level for 14 years today – spiking to $140 per barrel on some markets – as the West considers banning imports of Russian oil that gives the pariah state $100billion-a-month to help fund his military.
The AA said today that for a family car with a typical 55-litre tank, filling up now costs nearly £17 extra than a year ago, going up from £68.60 to £85.59.
Steve McNamara, general secretary of the Licensed Taxi Drivers Association, said ‘extortionate’ fuel prices are having a major impact on the drivers of the 10,000 diesel-powered black cabs on the capital’s roads.
He said: ‘If you’re running costs are up 20-25% it starts to bite. What we’re seeing is more cabs looking to park on ranks. They’re trying to avoid cruising around.’
Hauliers are warning they will be forced to increase charges to meet rising fuel bills, which will lead to a knock-on effect for consumers.
Rod McKenzie, managing director at trade body the Road Haulage Association, described the spike in the cost of diesel as ‘dramatic’.
He said: ‘If hauliers have to pay more for their fuel, they inevitably have to charge customers more. I suspect this will mean prices going up on everything that is delivered by a truck, which is frankly 97% of everything that we get in Britain.’
Typical profit margins in the industry are around just 3% so recent rises in fuel costs ‘have the potential to wipe out that profit’, Mr McKenzie said.
James Spencer, MD of Portland Fuel, said: ‘This has been a layer cake of bad news for oil prices. On February 25, prices went up by 5p a litre. That was the single biggest rise on any day in history. And last week we had 5p every day’.
Asked where the price will be next Monday, he said: ‘There is no cap on this – even if we can get extra supplies on to the market, nothing will happen quickly. I’m afraid we are going to see prices in excess of £1.70 to £1.75 a litre’.
Figures from data firm Experian Catalist show the average cost of a litre of petrol at UK forecourts on Sunday was 155.62p. The price of diesel is also at a record high of 161.28p.
Campaigners including the AA are calling on Chancellor Rishi Sunak to cut VAT on fuel for households already being hammered by the cost of living crisis. Experts said without help, it will be a ‘disaster’ for the most disadvantaged families.
A year ago the price per litre of petrol and diesel was 124.32p and 127.25p respectively.
The cost of filling up a typical 55-litre family car with either fuel has become more than £17 more expensive over that period.
Oil prices have spiked due to concerns over the reliability of supplies amid the war in Ukraine.
The price per barrel of Brent crude – which is the most commonly used way of measuring the UK’s oil price – reached 139 US dollars on Monday, which is its highest level in 14 years.
Sources of UK petroleum product imports in 2020 (thousands tonnes) according to the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy
Sources of UK crude oil imports in 2020 (thousands tonnes) according to the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy
A Texaco petrol station in north London sells unleaded petrol at 159.9 pence per litre and regular diesel at 169.9 pence per litre
RAC fuel spokesman Simon Williams said: ‘The average price of petrol across the UK has jumped by more than 4p in a week topping £1.55 for the first time ever, which means a gallon costs over £7 – something which many older drivers will be struggling to comprehend.
Biden will ban imports of Russian oil, natural gas after relentless pressure
Joe Biden has decided to ban Russian oil imports, toughening the toll on Russia’s economy in retaliation for its invasion of Ukraine, according to a source.
The move follows pleas by Ukrainian President Volodmyr Zelensky to US and western officials to cut off the imports, which had been a glaring omission from massive sanctions put in place on Russia over the invasion.
Energy exports have kept a steady influx of cash flowing to Moscow despite otherwise severe restrictions on its financial sector.
The US president is set to announce the move as soon as Tuesday, the source said.
The White House said he will speak on Tuesday morning to announce ‘actions to continue to hold Russia accountable for its unprovoked and unjustified war on Ukraine’.
The US will be acting alone but in close consultation with European allies, who are more dependent on Russian energy supplies.
Natural gas from Russia accounts for a third of Europe’s consumption of the fossil fuel. The US does not import Russian natural gas.
Mr Biden had explained his reluctance to impose energy sanctions at the start of the conflict two weeks ago saying he was trying ‘to limit the pain the American people are feeling at the gas pump’.
‘Diesel, however, has increased by 6.5p a litre to £1.61 or £7.30 a gallon.
‘These hikes are unprecedented and will sadly be hitting both homes and businesses hard.
‘It’s therefore vital the Chancellor acts quickly to limit the damage by cutting VAT to at least 15% which would save drivers 6.5p a litre and take the average price of unleaded back under £1.50.
‘Importantly, this could also limit the impact of inevitable fuel price rises in the coming days and weeks.’
VAT is currently charged at a rate of 20% on petrol and diesel.
AA spokesman Luke Bosdet said: ‘A year ago, with pump prices rising steadily after the pandemic slump, 125p a litre was bad news but 155p was unimaginable.’
He described the average petrol price rising above £7 a gallon as a ‘watershed moment’ which means ‘it’s time to ditch petrol and diesel, and switch to electric’ for drivers who can make the transition.
He added: ‘Although electricity is still susceptible to rising costs and market pressures, removing all those well-to-pump actors that can make a driver’s life a misery in a matter of weeks, will ensure a smoother ride with the cost of motoring – and a big saving initially.’
Washington is in ‘active talks’ with European allies about targeting Russia’s energy industry in the next round of sanctions, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced.
An oil import ban would be highly damaging to the Kremlin’s finances.
But it would almost certainly also send oil and gas prices spiralling across the West, pushing up energy bills at a time when millions of British households are already struggling with a cost-of-living crisis.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called for a global boycott of all Russian products – including oil.
‘If the invasion continues and Russia does not abandon its plans against Ukraine, then we need a new sanctions package,’ Mr Zelensky said in a video address on Monday, including ‘a boycott of Russian exports, in particular, the rejection of oil and oil products from Russia’.
He said: ‘The international community must act even more decisively.’
He also said that Russia should not receive goods and services from abroad ‘if (Russia) doesn’t want to abide by civilised rules’.
Mr Zelensky added: ‘It can be called an embargo, or it can be just morality.
‘Let the war feed them.
‘When someone loses his mind, you need to lose fear and forget about commerce.’
How Putin’s war in Ukraine will hit YOU in the pocket: Now cost of food is set to soar as Greggs becomes first to say prices will rise, experts warn of ‘hell on earth’ inflation – and half of drivers say fuel costs may make commute unaffordable
- British bakery chain put up prices in January and admits it may happen again as running costs spike again
- Ukraine is amongst world’s biggest producers of grain and oils, used in many of the most popular foods
- Energy price increases and rising cost of fuel also adding to the cost of products before they hit the shelves
- Michael Gove warns over repeat of energy prices shock from 50 years ago – that saw inflation hit 23%
- Click here for MailOnline’s liveblog with the latest updates on the Ukraine crisis
The cost to the UK Economy of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) has predicted that GDP growth this year will be slashed from 4.2% to 1.9% in 2022 and down to zero in 2023.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will ‘likely to have a large effect on the UK economy’, the CEBR said, adding that this would likely be in the mind of Rishi Sunak when he releases his Spring Forecast Statement on 23 March.
The forecast fall in living standards this year is an estimated £71 billion – which amounts to £2,553 per household.
The part of it due to invasion of Ukraine is about half – £35 billion (£1,259 per household) – but there is a further reduction from this source in 2023 of £29 billion (£1,043 per household).
‘Based on our scenario analysis which assumes a high transmission of sanctions to global commodity prices and UK inflation, we estimate that GDP growth this year will be halved – down from a previously forecast 4.2% in 2022 to 1.9%,’ the CEBR said.
‘And growth in 2023 is reduced from 2.0% to 0.0%. The reduction in real GDP in 2022 is £51.4 billion; that in 2023 is £42.5 billion. Cumulatively this is a reduction in GDP of more than £90 billion.’
The main channels for these impacts are the rising cost of living, a reduction in consumption and reduced exports because of sanctions on Russia, they added.
The effect of higher commodity prices reduces the level of disposable income by 1.9% in 2022 and by 2.1% in 2023, meaning that disposable incomes will fall in 2022 by 4.8% with a further fall of 1.4% in 2023, the CEBR says.
The fall in 2022 is the largest since records started in 1955, they added.
Greggs today warned the price of its pastry staples are likely to go up for the second time this year as experts said Russia’s military aggression is unleashing ‘hell on earth’ food prices that will push up the cost of the weekly shop.
Britain’s favourite bakery was given hell by customers after 5p was added to the price of a sausage roll in January – but chief executive Roger Whiteside, 63, has admitted it might have to happen again in 2022.
The war in Ukraine is already causing runaway cost increases because the country is one of the world’s top producers of wheat, maize, barley and various cooking oils – the building blocks of many supermarket staples. Farmers have abandoned their fields to fight the invaders.
If passed on to consumers, the price of bread and cereal could go up by up to 87 per cent in the coming 12 months while the price of coffee, sugar, rice, cheese, fruit juice and milk have also spiked as energy prices and transport costs rise because of Putin’s grip on the oil and gas markets.
And to make things worse, one of the world’s biggest fertiliser producers has warned that a shortage could badly hit crop yields this year, worsening ‘a global food crisis’ already kickstarted by Covid-19.
The head of the World Food Programme, David Beasley, said: ‘Just when you think hell on earth can’t get any worse, it does. So you’re going from being a breadbasket to now, literally, having to hand out bread to them. It’s just an incredible reverse of reality’.
Ukrainian trade lawyer Ivanna Dorichenko told the BBC that her country’s farmers have been forced to abandon their fields to fight the Russian invasion. She said: ‘The men who need to work on the land, they’re all defending our land right now. Because if they do not defend the land, there’ll be nothing to work on at a later stage, and you don’t have a single person right now who’s not trying to help in any way they can.’
Experts believe that British homes now face the worst drop in living standards since the 1970s with inflation and rising costs forcing a typical family of four to take a £1,000 hit to their household budget in 2022. A new survey has found that half of people who commute by car or van fear they will be priced off the road because the cost of petrol and diesel could hit £2-a-litre.
Despite record profits, Greggs has today admitted that while it had already increased some prices of goods by 5p to 10p at the start of the year, further changes are expected. The bad news wiped £1.74 off the share price this morning, leaving it down 7.6% at just over £21.
The cost of doing business is expected to rise between 6% and 7% for the company this year due to higher staffing and ingredient costs.
The cost of commodities used in food production has seen an extraordinary rise in price over the past year. If passed on directly to consumers, these staples could be even more expensive in the coming 12 months based on year on year increases on global commodities markets
It said it will try to protect its reputation for being ‘outstanding value for money’.
‘This has necessitated some price increases, which were made at the start of this year, and further changes are expected to be necessary,’ Greggs said.
‘As ever, we will work to mitigate the impact of this on customers, protecting Greggs’ reputation for exceptional value in the freshly-prepared food-to-go market.
‘Given this dynamic, we do not currently expect material profit progression in the year ahead.’
However, boss Roger Whiteside said the company will have to assess whether it is able to change prices before it does.
It comes down to ensuring that customers will still choose to spend money at Greggs even if prices go up.
US Department of Agriculture stats show that Ukraine is one of the world’s top suppliers of grains and oils, which will be disrupted by war. Shortages and price rises are predicted
A report from the European Commission’s Agriculture and Rural Development unit showed in 2020 Ukraine was the fourth largest origin of agri-food on the planet
Gas prices are in unchartered territory as the markets panicked about possible shortages if Putin decreases or shuts down exports
The price of a barrel of oil settled at $127 today after spiking to $140 yesterday – but Russia is warning that this will hit $300 if the West boycotts them
‘We’ve got no plans to raise prices currently, but obviously that’s going to have to remain under review given the way the markets are moving around the world on commodity food prices in particular,’ he said.
Half of all people who drive to work say that fuel prices will stop them using their cars because they can’t afford to fill up
New data from leading office space provider Offices.co.uk reveals the huge impact rising fuel costs will have on the UK’s return to the office and the nations post pandemic recovery plans as the cost of living crisis worsens for UK consumers.
Offices.co.uk conducted a snap survey of over 1500 UK office workers who commute by car to their workplace.
Latest data from the AA shows Petrol has now reached an average of 155.62p a litre. Diesel is averaging 161.28p. A year ago, they averaged 124.32p and 127.25p a litre respectively.
This means that the cost of filling up an average 55 litre tank is now almost £18 more expensive, at almost £86 per tank compared to last year.
If the average prices reach over £2 per litre, it will bump the price of the average 55 litre tank to £110, some £24 more than at present but a whopping £42 a tank more expensive than last year.
This represents an enormous 60% increase in fuel costs in the 12 month period.
Johnny Ratcliffe of Offices.co.uk said ‘The cost of living crisis that UK workers are experiencing is reaching breaking point. Millions of households already facing the prospect of enormous price hikes in their home energy bills and rising food prices are now facing being unable to commute to their workplaces if the pump prices hit £2 per litre.
‘Our data shows just how serious an implication this is for the UK economy if almost half of workers surveyed say they won’t be able to afford to get to work anymore. The Government needs to step in urgently otherwise working from home will become the only option for millions of workers. The ones that are able to work from home that is. Everyone else? I dread to think’.
‘If the market allows price increases to move onto customers, then we will have to attempt to do that, if it doesn’t then we won’t be able to,’ he added.
‘You’re trying to position price to make sure you maximise sales.’
Britons have been warned that they face a ‘food price shock’ as the result of shortages of essential crops, such as wheat, maize and vegetable oils from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The threat stems from the fact that supplies of grain from Ukraine, which is considered the ‘breadbasket of the world’, are predicted to come to a halt.
At the same time, sanctions against Russia would disrupt supplies of many crops, food oils and fish.
UK manufacturers, supermarkets and farmers are drawing up plans to cope with an interruption to supplies of commodity crops used in bread and manufactured foods, as well as farm animal feed.
Ukrainian farmers have been forced to neglect their fields as millions flee, fight or try to stay alive. Ports are shut down that send wheat and other food staples worldwide to be made into bread, noodles and animal feed.
And there are worries Russia, another agricultural powerhouse, could have its grain exports upended by Western sanctions.
While there have not yet been global disruptions to wheat supplies, prices have surged 55per cent since a week before the invasion amid concerns about what could happen next.
The boss of one of the world’s biggest fertiliser companies, Yara International, said the invasion is driving up costs and creating shortages, leading to higher prices.
Yara’s boss, Svein Tore Holsether, said: ‘Things are changing by the hour.
‘We were already in a difficult situation before the war… and now it’s additional disruption to the supply chains and we’re getting close to the most important part of this season for the Northern hemisphere, where a lot of fertiliser needs to move on and that will quite likely be impacted.’
He told the BBC: ‘For me, it’s not whether we are moving into a global food crisis – it’s how large the crisis will be.’
The National Farmers’ Union ( NFU) said the conflict poses a threat to its members at a time they are ‘already facing record inflationary pressures affecting energy, feed and fertiliser prices’.
Head of International Trade at the Food & Drink Federation, Dominic Goudie, said: ‘We have seen in the past that disruption to Ukraine’s exports can impact on global food supplies and prices on a range of key commodities, such as vegetable oils and maize, which are important to UK production.
‘We are working with our UK manufacturers to determine what these impacts could look like and to minimise any knock on effects for shoppers and consumers.’
- The London Metal Exchange said Tuesday that it has suspended trade in nickel after the base metal rocketed to a record peak above $100,000 on Russian output concerns. ‘Following further unprecedented overnight increases in the three-month nickel price, the LME has made the decision to suspend trading for, at minimum, the remainder of today,’ it said in a statement after nickel spiked to $101,365 per tonne.
Kremlin officials ‘are privately denouncing ‘clusterf**k’ invasion’ as Putin’s forces get bogged down in snow with temperatures set to drop to -20C and Ukrainian soldiers race to evacuate civilians as Kyiv claims to have killed 12,000 troops
- Russian politicians and powerful business figures are privately denouncing the invasion, it has been claimed
- Comes as President Putin’s invasion grinds to a bloody halt, with no significant territory captured in days
- Temperatures are set to plunge in coming days – down to -20C with wind chill – worsening conditions for refugees and Russian forces alike, both of which lack shelter and heating
- Kyiv claims 12,000 Russian soldiers have now been killed in fighting, with more than 300 tanks destroyed
- Russian forces continue to bomb major cities, with strike on Sumy overnight killing 21 including two children
- Click here to read MailOnline’s liveblog with the latest updates on the Ukraine crisis
Kremlin officials are privately denouncing Putin’s ‘clusterf***’ war in Ukraine and ‘in mourning’ for the death of the Russian economy as his invasion grinds to a halt amid mounting casualties with a cold snap over the next few days expected to make fighting even harder, it has been claimed.
Farida Rustamova, a Russian journalist who was well-connected in government circles before fleeing Russia amid a crackdown on free speech, said sources she spoke to before leaving never believed Putin would go to war and are now making ‘apocalyptic’ forecasts about the weeks and months ahead as fighting grinds on and sanctions bite.
‘They’re carefully enunciating the word clusterf***,’ one source told her when asked how Russian politicians were reacting to the news. ‘No one is rejoicing. Many understand that this is a mistake, but in the course of doing their duty they come up with explanations in order to somehow come to terms with it.’
Ukraine estimates that some 12,000 Russians have now died fighting and while that number cannot be verified, casualties are almost certainly higher than Putin bargained for when he gave the order to attack 13 days ago. Captured soldiers have complained of a lack of food, fuel, and overall battle plan – with conditions set to get worse in the coming days.
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A pronounced cold snap will see temperatures drop to -10C overnight in the middle of the week around Kyiv and Kharkiv – down to -20C when wind chill is taken into account – with many Russian soldiers stuck outdoors in a 40-mile column of stalled vehicles near the Ukrainian capital.
The cold will also make life much harder for thousands of desperate refugees fleeing the fighting, some of whom have been without access to heat or water for days because their cities have been under bombardment. Hundreds of people have been pictured evacuating from the city of Irpin, near Kyiv, today whilst snow fell.
Irpin has been the scene of some intense clashes as Russian forces try to take it on their mission to surround and besiege Kyiv, with one commander reporting hand-to-hand fighting as Putin’s men battle street-to-street.
‘In some places, there is hand-to-hand combat,’ an officer who gave his name only as Stas said. ‘There is a huge column – 200 men, 50 light armoured vehicles, several tanks,’ he said of the Russian threat. ‘We are trying to push them out, but I don’t know if we’ll be fully able to do it.’
Vitaliy Shichko, resident of nearby Bucha, said Russian forces have been attacking the town since last week – initially throwing in men ‘they weren’t afraid of losing’ but increasingly moving in better armed and equipped troops to capture and hold ground. ‘Basically special forces,’ he said.
Others said that Russians had cleared residents out of their homes so they could set up sniper positions, with some alleging that civilians had been fired at as they tried to flee. Ukrainian artillery is now being brought to bare on Russian forces as they set up the next phase of their attack, commanders said.
Ukraine’s commanders say Putin’s invasion has ‘slowed significantly’ in recent days, with American intelligence saying he has now committed all of the forces he built up along the border to the fight.
Ukraine’s military, giving an overview of combat as the war enters its 13th day, said defensive operations continue in the north, east and south of Ukraine, with all major cities other than Kherson – which fell last week – in Ukrainian hands. Russian troops are ‘demoralised and increasingly tend to looting and violations of international humanitarian law,’ commanders added.
It has also emerged that another Russian commander – Major General Vitaly Gerasimov, first deputy commander of Russia’s 41st army – was killed in Kharkiv on Monday, just the latest in an increasingly long line of senior military figures to lose their lives in Ukraine.
Kyiv claimed today that 12,000 Russian troops have now died fighting in Ukraine, while 300 tanks have been destroyed along with more than 1,000 armoured vehicles, 48 planes, 80 helicopters and three boats. Moscow has acknowledged taking losses but has not given a recent update. Ukraine’s losses are unknown.
Strikes on civilian areas also continued overnight, with the city of Sumy – in the east – struck by bombs which the local mayor said killed 21 people including two children and left others wounded. Ukraine’s parliament published a photo of a bloodied infant they said was hurt in the attack.
Russia said it will again open up ‘humanitarian corridors’ today to allow civilians to flee bombarded cities – but the offer has already been dismissed by Kyiv, with President Volodymyr Zelensky accusing Moscow of ‘cynicism’, saying its troops have laid mines across the routes and blown up buses intended to be used as transports.
‘There was an agreement on humanitarian corridors. Did that work? Russian tanks worked in its place, Russian Grads (multiple rocket launchers), Russian mines,’ Zelensky said in a video posted on Telegram. ‘They ensure that a small corridor to the occupied territory is open for a few dozen people. Not so much towards Russia as towards the propagandists, directly towards the television cameras.’
At least one of the corridors – out of Sumy – appeared to be operating early Tuesday, with around a dozen people pictured boarding a bus marked with medical symbols as they tried to leave. Ukraine’s foreign ministry said the route of of Mariupol, which has been without water or electricity for the best part of a week, has been shelled.
In Bucha, to the northwest of Kyiv, the mayor said the city is under such heavy shelling that medics cannot get into the streets to retrieve the bodies of the dead – which are now being ‘pulled apart’ by stray dogs. ‘It’s a nightmare,’ he added.
An elderly woman placed in a shopping trolley is carried over a destroyed bridge as she is evacuated from the city of Irpin, west of Kyiv, as snow falls on Tuesday morning
An elderly Ukrainian woman, placed inside a shopping trolley, is carried over a destroyed bridge on the outskirts of Irpin, near the capital Kyiv, which has been the scene of brutal street-to-street fighting
People carry a wounded woman during the evacuation by civilians of the city of Irpin, northwest of Kyiv
A police officer says goodbye to his son as his family flees from advancing Russian troops as Russia’s attack on Ukraine continues in the town of Irpin
Civilians continue to flee from Irpin due to ongoing Russian attacks as snow falls
A young boy is carried by his father as civilians are evacuated from Irpin with Russian forces trying to take the city
Heavy snow falls as Ukrainian civilians flee across a river in Irpin, on the outskirts of Kyiv, where heavy fighting is going on
Ukrainian soldiers help an elderly woman to cross a destroyed bridge as she evacuates the city of Irpin, northwest of Kyiv
A Ukrainian woman dressed in full furs and carrying a suitcase is helped by soldiers to cross a destroyed bridge while evacuating from Irpin, where Russian troops have been fighting
A person is carried on a stretcher during the evacuation by civilians of the city of Irpin, on the outskirts of Kyiv
A woman carrying a swaddled baby walks down a motorway near the city of Irpin as she evacuates amid heavy snowfall
An elderly woman wrapped in blankets is wheeled down the highway in Irpin, Ukraine, as civilians evacuate
A wheelchair-bound woman is covered in snow as she is evacuated from Irpin while temperatures plunge
A woman evacuates from Irpin in the snow, with Ukraine set to see a cold snap that will send temperatures down to -20C over the coming days – increasing the pressure on refugees
Civilians continue to flee from Irpin due to ongoing Russian attacks as snow falls
A woman carries her dog during the evacuation by civilians of the city of Irpin, northwest of Kyiv
Civilians continue to flee from Irpin due to ongoing Russian attacks as snow falls
Heavy snow almost obscures people fleeing from their homes in the city of Irpin, near Kyiv, on Tuesday
People displaced from their homes carry what belongings they can as they flee from the city of Irpin, near Kyiv
A man and his dogs are helped across a river on the outskirts of Irpin, near Kyiv, as civilians evacuations continue
People file across a makeshift river crossing below a destroyed bridge as they flee from advancing Russian troops whose attack on Ukraine continues in the town of Irpin
A woman carries a dog to cross a destroyed bridge as she evacuates the city of Irpin, northwest of Kyiv
Ukrainians crowd under a destroyed bridge as they try to flee crossing the Irpin river in the outskirts of Kyiv
A Ukrainian soldier helps a woman to cross a destroyed bridge during the evacuation by civilians of the city of Irpin
A woman prays as she watches her relatives cross a destroyed bridge on their way out of Irpin, to the west of Kyiv
Russian troops continue to try and surround Kyiv ahead of what is expected to be an attack on the city, with intense fighting reported in the north west including hand-to-hand combat with Russian forces
In Zhyotymyr, west of Kyiv, a fire at an oil depot was extinguished in the early hours of the morning while in Mykolaiv, in the south, several fires in residential areas had broke out due to Russian attacks – with four civilians killed and five others rescued from the rubble and taken to hospital
In Kharkiv in eastern Ukraine, Russian shelling set nine floors and 27 apartment units of a residential building on fire – a blaze that took rescuers more than four hours to extinguish. At least four people were killed.
UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, speaking to the BBC this morning, said Russian forces are ‘getting more desperate’ and ‘we are seeing the Russians just double down on brutality’ as the attack stalls.
He says ‘Russia has still not been making its advances, it’s day 13. That northern column that we have often talked about is still pretty much stuck, I mean really stuck, so that’s not advancing.’
He said the UK would be increasing the amount of lethal and non-lethal aid to Ukraine, details of which he would announce in Parliament on Wednesday, and is helping organise delivery of aid through Nato and other EU countries. President Zelensky is due to address the House of Commons via video link later today.
Ukraine war: The latest
- Russia refloats plans to open humanitarian corridors. Kyiv calls the proposal a publicity stunt
- Ukrainian servicemen and fleeing residents describe ferocious fighting on Kyiv’s northwestern edge, including hand-to-hand combat
- 18 people, including two children, died in an air strike on the city of Sumy
- Ukraine’s military claims Russian general Vitaly Gerasimov is killed in fighting near Kharkiv
- Russia steps up its shelling of Gostomel near Kyiv, Kharkiv in the east, Sumy in the northeast, Chernihiv in the north and Mykolayiv in the southwest
- Tens of thousands are still trapped without water or power in the southern port of Mariupol after two failed evacuation attempts
- At least 13 people are killed by shelling at an industrial bakery in Makariv, west of Kyiv
- Nearly all of Russia’s 150,000 combat troops arrayed on Ukraine’s border have now entered the country
- The International Atomic Energy Agency receives reports of artillery shells damaging a nuclear research facility in Ukraine’s besieged second city Kharkiv
- White House says there is no agreement with European allies on a blanket ban on oil and gas imports
- The World Bank approves an additional $489million package for Ukraine, made available immediately
- Russia says it will allow Russian companies and individuals to repay debts to creditors in ‘hostile’ nations in rubles
- US-based Morgan Stanley says a Russian default on sovereign debts will come as soon as next month
- Russian President Vladimir Putin says he is not sending conscripts or reservists to fight
- Kyiv’s presidential advisor says talks with Russia brought some ‘positive results’, while Moscow’s lead negotiator said aims were ‘not fulfilled’
- Turkey announces it will host Russia’s and Ukraine’s foreign ministers for talks Thursday.
- Foreign footballers and coaches working in Russia and Ukraine will be allowed to temporarily suspend their contracts and move elsewhere, FIFA announces
- The UN says 1.7 million people have fled Ukraine, making it the fastest-growing refugee crisis since World War II
On the subject of Poland possibly supplying jets for the fight in Ukraine, he said there was a debate going on at the moment about whether Poland would.
‘The UK could not supply jets directly to Ukraine, we don’t have the same type of fighter jets they fly, Mig-29s and others… Our view would be that it is for Poland on a bilateral basis to decide whether to support Ukraine,’ adding the UK would support Poland as an old ally.
Meanwhile Russia has threatened to turn off the main gas pipeline supplying Europe if the West goes ahead with sanctions on its oil sector – a move that Moscow says would push the price up above $300 per barrel.
America is said to be considering penalties for Russia’s energy sector – one of the few lifelines its economy has left – but it has been ruled out by Germany and the UK, who say the European economy needs more time to adjust before the taps are turned off.
The invasion has sparked the biggest war in Europe and the continent’s largest refugee crisis since World War II, while the West has responded with sanctions on Russia that have reverberated around the global economy.
Russia’s defence ministry said it would open the ‘humanitarian corridors’ from 0700 GMT Tuesday, subject to Ukraine’s approval, listing routes from the capital Kyiv as well as the cities of Mariupol, Kharkiv and Sumy – all of which have been under heavy attack. Ukraine did not initially respond to the offer.
French President Emmanuel Macron also condemned the Russian plan. ‘All this is not serious, it is moral and political cynicism, which I find intolerable,’ Macron told French broadcaster LCI.
‘I do not know many Ukrainians who want to go to Russia,’ he added, saying full ceasefires to protect civilians were needed rather than corridors.
Meanwhile the mayor of one besieged Kyiv suburb has described artillery fire as being so relentless residents are unable to gather up their dead.
With the Russian invasion of Ukraine well into its second week, a steady rain of shells and rockets continues to fall on population centres like Bucha. The mayor of the Kyiv suburb, Anatol Fedoruk, said military fire had been heavy and constant.
‘We can’t even gather up the bodies because the shelling from heavy weapons doesn’t stop day or night,’ Mr Fedoruk said.
Corridors intended to let Ukrainian civilians escape the Russian onslaught could open on Tuesday, Kremlin officials said, though Ukrainian leaders greeted the plan with scepticism since prior efforts to establish evacuation routes crumbled over the weekend amid renewed attacks.
In one of the most desperate cities, the encircled southern port of Mariupol, an estimated 200,000 people – nearly half the population of 430,000 – were hoping to flee, and Red Cross officials waited to hear when a corridor would be established.
Russia’s chief negotiator said he expected the corridors to be in use on Tuesday.
The Russian UN ambassador forecast a potential cease-fire for the morning and appeared to suggest that humanitarian paths leading away from Kyiv and other cities could give people choice in where they want to go – a change from previous proposals that offered only destinations in Russia or Belarus.
The office of embattled Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would not comment on the latest Russian proposal, saying only that Moscow’s plans can be believed only if a safe evacuation begins.
Demands for effective passageways have surged amid intensifying shelling by Russian forces. The steady bombardments, including in some of Ukraine’s most populated regions, have yielded a humanitarian crisis of diminishing food, water and medical supplies.
Through it all, Mr Zelensky said Ukrainian forces were showing unprecedented courage.
‘The problem is that for one soldier of Ukraine, we have 10 Russian soldiers, and for one Ukrainian tank, we have 50 Russian tanks,’ Mr Zelensky told ABC News in an interview that aired on Monday night.
But he noted that the gap in strength was diminishing and that even if Russian forces ‘come into all our cities,’ they will be met with an insurgency.
A top US official said multiple countries were discussing whether to provide the warplanes that Mr Zelensky has been pleading for.
At The Hague, Netherlands, Ukraine pleaded with the International Court of Justice to order a halt to Russia’s invasion, saying Moscow is committing widespread war crimes.
Russia ‘is resorting to tactics reminiscent of medieval siege warfare, encircling cities, cutting off escape routes and pounding the civilian population with heavy ordnance,’ said Jonathan Gimblett, a member of Ukraine’s legal team.
Russia snubbed the court proceedings, leaving its seats in the Great Hall of Justice empty.
The UN humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths addressed the Security Council and urged safe passage for people to go ‘in the direction they choose’.
The battle for Mariupol is crucial because its capture could allow Moscow to establish a land corridor to Crimea, which Russia seized from Ukraine in 2014.
The fighting has sent energy prices surging worldwide and stocks plummeting, and threatens the food supply and livelihoods of people around the globe who rely on crops farmed in the fertile Black Sea region.
The UN human rights office reported 406 confirmed civilian deaths but said the real number is much higher. The invasion has also sent 1.7 million people fleeing Ukraine.
On Monday, Moscow again announced a series of demands to stop the invasion, including that Ukraine recognise Crimea as part of Russia and recognise the eastern regions controlled by Moscow-supported separatist fighters as independent. It also insisted that Ukraine change its constitution to guarantee it won’t join international bodies like Nato and the EU. Ukraine has already rejected those demands.
Mr Zelensky has called for more punitive measures against Russia, including a global boycott of its oil exports, which are key to its economy.
‘If (Russia) doesn’t want to abide by civilized rules, then they shouldn’t receive goods and services from civilization,’ he said in a video address.
Addressing the Security Council, the UN’s top humanitarian official Martin Griffiths said civilians must be allowed to leave in the direction they wish.
At least 406 civilians have died since the start of Russia’s assault on its ex-Soviet neighbour, according to the UN, although it believes the real figures to be ‘considerably higher’.
Ukrainian forces said Tuesday they had repulsed a Russian attack on Izium city in the Kharkiv region, and outgunned troops have been trying to hold back a Russian push up from the east and south in an attempt to encircle Kyiv.
Russian forces ‘suffered losses and retreated’ in Izium after they ‘reigned terror in the city by bombing civilian premises and infrastructure,’ the military said.
AFP journalists witnessed thousands of civilians on Monday fleeing fighting via an unofficial escape route from Irpin, a suburb west of Kyiv, towards the capital.
Children and the elderly were carried on carpets used as stretchers on the route, which leads over the makeshift bridge and along a single path secured by the army and volunteers.
Desperate people abandoned pushchairs and heavy suitcases to cram on buses out of the war zone.
‘We had no light at home, no water, we just sat in the basement,’ Inna Scherbanyova, 54, an economist from Irpin, told AFP.
‘Explosions were constantly going off… Near our house there are cars, there were dead people in one of them… very scary.’
Refugees trying to escape the city using agreed escape routes were left stranded as the road they were directed towards was mined, the ICRC said on Monday.
One Ukrainian paratrooper told of ‘hand-to-hand’ combat in Irpin, saying ‘we are trying to push (Russian soldiers) out, but I don’t know if we’ll be fully able to do it’.
An international legion of volunteers has descended on Ukraine to fight the Russians.
President Zelensky winks to the camera as he reveals that he is still in Kyiv, while welcoming in the first day of spring
A Russian military vehicle explodes after being struck by Ukrainian artillery near Kyiv, as commanders say Moscow’s forces continue to suffer heavy losses across the country
Ukrainian soldiers keep their spirits up by singing in a trench near Irpin, on the western outskirts of the capital Kyiv
Ukrainian soldiers stand ready to defend against Russian forces in Irpin, Ukraine
Ukrainian soldiers take cover from incoming artillery fire in Irpin, near the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv
A Ukrainian soldier takes cover from incoming Russian artillery fire in Irpin, which has been under heavy bombardment
Ukrainian volunteers help remove a dead body as Russian forces continue to besiege residential areas of Irpin, near Kyiv
A pedestrian walks amid debris in a street following a shelling in Ukraine’s second-biggest city of Kharkiv
A member of the Ukrainian Territorial Defence Forces looks at destructions following a shelling in Ukraine’s second-biggest city of Kharkiv
Firefighters extinguish a fire of a damaged residential building after Russian troops shelled the area in the second largest Ukrainian city of Kharkiv
A rescuer is seen next to a residential building damaged by shelling, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in Mykolaiv
The booster section of a Russian Smerch rocket is seen embedded in the side of a car in Kharkiv, Ukraine
Members of Ukrainian military together with other people carry an elderly woman in a wheelchair to cross the destroyed bridge as people flee from the frontline town of Irpin, Kyiv region
Rescuers carry a civilian injured during shelling, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in Mykolaiv, Ukraine
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken disembarks his plane as he arrives for his visit to Tallinn, Estonia
A burning Russian tank is seen in the midst of night as fighting takes place outside the Ukrainian city of Sumy
But the Pentagon said Monday that Moscow was on a recruiting mission for its own foreign fighters – Syrians who fought for President Bashar al-Assad.
‘We do believe that the accounts of them – the Russians – seeking Syrian fighters to augment their forces in Ukraine, we believe there’s truth to that,’ Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told reporters.
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday said he will not send conscripts or reservists to fight in the conflict.
Zelensky has recalled all servicemen working abroad to fight the invading forces, according to the Ukrainian parliament.
He again vowed to remain in place as Russian forces near the capital.
‘I am staying in Kyiv. Not hiding. And I’m not afraid of anyone,’ he said in a video late Monday.
He said his government will do ‘as much as it takes to win this war!’
The World Bank on Monday approved an additional $489-million package in support for Ukraine, to be made available immediately and dubbed ‘Financing of Recovery from Economic Emergency in Ukraine,’ or ‘FREE Ukraine.’
It came as Zelensky renewed calls for the West to boycott Russian exports, particularly oil, and to impose a no-fly zone to stop the carnage.
NATO countries have so far rebuffed Kyiv’s demand for a no-fly zone, fearing a widening war against nuclear-armed Russia.
Western allies have instead imposed unprecedented sanctions against businesses, banks and billionaires in a bid to pressure Moscow to halt its assault.
But the leaders of Germany, Britain and the Netherlands warned Monday against a ban on Russian oil, saying it could put Europe’s energy security at risk.
US President Joe Biden’s spokeswoman said no decision had been taken, while Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak warned any oil ban would have ‘catastrophic consequences’ on prices that have already headed towards a 2008 record high.
Putin has equated sanctions with a declaration of war and put nuclear forces on alert, pledging the ‘neutralisation’ of Ukraine ‘either through negotiation or through war’.
Despite harsh punishments for those voicing dissent, protests in Russia against the Ukraine invasion have continued, with more than 10,000 people arrested since it began.
People stand next to a coffin with a body of a member of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valerii, who was killed during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Members of the Honour Guard stand next to a coffin with a body of the member of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valerii, who was killed during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Hanna Bespalko, 54, cries over her deceased son Denys Hrynchuk in Bila Krynytsia, near Kherson, in Ukraine
Hanna Bespalko, 54, holds the hands of her dead son Denys during his funeral service in the village of Bila Krynytsia, Ukraine
Ukrainian soldiers pictured carrying the coffin of 24-year-old Ukrainian soldier Denys Hrynchuk during his funeral in Ukraine
The arrival of war refugees from southern Ukrainian cities at the Zahony railway station on the Hungarian border
Refugees disembark a train at Zahony, Hungary, after fleeing the fighting in Ukraine. 1.7million have fled so-far
Back to the 1970s? Minister warns over repeat of energy prices shock from 50 years ago – that saw inflation hit 23% and interest rates 17% – as think-tank says households face £1,000 hit amid Ukraine crisis
- Michael Gove has warned of ‘direct comparison’ to energy shock in the 1970s
- That crisis saw inflation hit 23 per cent in the UK and interest rates 17 per cent
- Resolution Foundation says households are already facing a £1,000 hit
A minister has warned that Britain is facing a energy shock similar to the 1970s – when inflation hit 23 per cent and interest rates 17 per cent.
Michael Gove highlighted the ‘direct historical comparison’ between the current Ukraine crisis and the standoff that erupted after the Yom Kippur war in 1973.
That saw prices nearly quadruple when Arab oil-producing nations imposed an embargo in protest at the West’s support for Israel.
In the ensuing chaos UK CPI inflation reached just under 23 per cent in 1975, while by 1979 interest rates had spiralled to 17 per cent.
The grim warning came as Boris Johnson signalled a new dash for gas to help stop Vladimir Putin holding the West to ransom. Gas prices have surged to record levels, prompting fears that household energy bills will double to £4,000.
A think-tank has cautioned that non-pensioner households already face a £1,000 hit this year from inflation and tax rises – heaping pressure on Rishi Sunak to take action in his looming Spring statement.
Michael Gove highlighted a ‘direct historical comparison’ between the current Ukraine crisis and the standoff that erupted after the Yom Kippur war in 1973
In the 1970s CPI inflation hit 23 per cent and Bank of England interest rates 17 per cent
The Resolution Foundation said inflation could hit around 8 per cent this spring – which it said would make ‘falling real household incomes the defining economic feature of 2022’
The squeeze was underlined by a chart tracking changes in disposable income
In an interview on LBC’s Andrew Marr last night, Mr Gove said was asked if the British public : ‘I think we can get through this, but I think there is a direct historical comparison with what happened in the 1970s.
‘After the 1973 Yom Kippur war, oil prices spiked and that had an effect.
‘There were lots of other things going on in the global economy at that time that were difficult.’
He said there are ‘real cost of living challenges’ and there was a need to ‘level with the British people’.
‘Yes, real challenges ahead. But also, we can get through this, and I think that what we mustn’t do is for any reason to imagine that these challenges will overwhelm a country like ours,’ Mr Gove said.
Mr Johnson revealed last night that an ‘energy supply strategy’ will give the green light for more drilling in the North Sea to help stabilise global prices and improve UK ‘self-reliance’.
Ministers are also expected to endorse plans for a new generation of ‘mini-nukes’ to quickly increase nuclear power generation.
Energy prices soared yesterday as Russia’s war on Ukraine appeared stalled and Western leaders pushed for tougher sanctions on Moscow.
Six new oil and gas fields were already set to be approved in the coming months and now another six.
The Government was already poised to approve six new oil and gas fields in the comings months and is now expected to fast-track at least six more.
The decision to drill for more oil and gas will embolden Tory MPs pushing for the Government to ditch its costly ‘net zero’ plan – and comes just days after Nigel Farage called for a referendum on the issue.
Mr Johnson said the UK’s short-term plan may now involve ‘more hydrocarbons’.
He said this ‘doesn’t mean we are in any way abandoning our commitment to reducing carbon dioxide’, but added: ‘We have got to reflect the reality that there is a crunch on at the moment. We need to increase our self-reliance.
‘One of the things we are looking at is the possibility of using more of our own hydrocarbons.’ Ministers are also discussing possible financial help for businesses hit by soaring energy bills.
Energy traders took fright yesterday over US-led efforts to promote a Western boycott of Russian oil and gas to further squeeze the ability of Russia’s economy to fund Putin’s war machine.
Energy prices jumped to new highs, as Russia’s war on Ukraine intensified, and Western leaders pushed for tougher sanctions.
Gas prices surged to record levels, prompting predictions that domestic energy bills could double to £4,000 later this year.
Oil prices also continued to rise, sparking warnings that petrol could push towards £2 a litre – taking the cost of an average tank-full to more than £100. Unleaded hit a record £1.55 a litre yesterday, with industry sources saying it was likely to rise to £1.75 unless the pressure on global prices relented.
Former Foreign Office minister Sir Alan Duncan warned that the West had to be careful not to ‘sanction ourselves’ by forcing energy prices so high that gas suppliers collapse.
The PM acknowledged that families would feel ‘impacts’ on their cost of living as a result of the sanctions imposed on Russia by the West, but added: ‘It’s the right thing to do.’
He went on: ‘It is completely right to move away from dependence on Russian hydrocarbons but we have to do it step by step… and do everything we can to have substitute supplies.’ EU leaders yesterday warned that a full boycott of Russian oil and gas would take time because of Europe’s heavy dependency on supplies from Moscow.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said on Sunday that ‘active discussions’ were underway on a Western boycott of Russian oil and gas.
But Mr Scholz rejected the idea, saying: ‘At the moment, Europe’s supply of energy for heat generation, mobility, power supply and industry cannot be secured in any other way. It is therefore of essential importance for the provision of public services and the daily lives of our citizens.’
Dutch PM Mark Rutte said ending the EU’s dependence on Russian gas was now essential, but warned that moving too fast could backfire with ‘enormous consequences’ for European households.
Former energy secretary Andrea Leadsom last night said ministers should think again about whether to allow local communities to licence fracking operations in their area.
The Treasury yesterday played down the prospect of the Chancellor unveiling new support for cash-strapped families at a planned mini-Budget later this month.
Boris Johnson (right) has signalled a new dash for gas to help stop Vladimir Putin holding the West to ransom, but Rishi Sunak (left) is coming under pressure to give more support to households in his Autumn statement
The Resolution Foundation think-tank has highlighted the scale of the squeeze on families in the coming months
The think-tank warned that real earnings are turning negative as inflation soars
The wealthiest households are set for the biggest hit in cash terms, according to the think-tank
A source said the Treasury was ‘already providing support worth around £20billion’ to help with the cost of living.
But Mr Sunak is set to come under intense pressure in the coming days to provide more help, particularly for business which is not covered by the price cap on domestic fuel.
The Resolution Foundation said inflation could hit around 8 per cent this spring – which it said would make ‘falling real household incomes the defining economic feature of 2022’.
And even before the conflict in Ukraine, the outlook for living standards this coming financial year was ‘bleak’, with soaring energy bills in April disproportionately affecting families on low and middle incomes.
‘The UK’s post-Covid economic recovery is well under way, but a deep living standards downturn is just getting going,’ the report argued.
The Resolution Foundation’s principal economist Adam Corlett said: ‘Britain has stepped out of a global pandemic, and straight into a cost of living crisis.’
The foundation urged Chancellor Rishi Sunak to address the issue in his upcoming spring statement and increase benefits by 8.1 per cent this year.
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