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Most people probably know someone who does not want to be vaccinated. It may be a relative, a neighbour or a friend. In June, an Age survey showed about a quarter of adult Australians were unlikely to get vaccinated against COVID-19, but hopefully hesitancy has declined given the threat of the Delta variant is obvious.

The rationale most often given is a fear of possible side effects; many others say they do not trust the government or do not know enough to make a final decision. It is not a one-size-fits-all response. While Australia’s recent outbreaks are sure to have changed some people’s minds, it will be months before we know for certain how big a problem vaccine hesitancy is.

A proof-of-vaccination sign is posted at a bar in San Francisco.Credit:AP

In coming months, more than enough Pfizer doses are expected to land in Australia for all those eligible to get a jab. This will quickly change the debate from one about supply to one about how quickly doses can be injected into arms. When Pfizer’s mRNA vaccine is made available to the wider population, there is sure to be a surge in demand. But that will only last so long.

By Christmas, it should be clear how successful Australia has been in reaching the new targets set by national cabinet of first 70 per cent and then 80 per cent full vaccination rates for adults.

Hitting the targets should trigger an end to strict lockdowns, but overseas experience is showing a worrying trend. Even with high levels of vaccination, the Delta variant is proving more than capable of spreading widely among those left unvaccinated, leading to another surge in hospitalisations. There is little talk of herd immunity. Instead a debate is being waged over whether being vaccinated can and should be mandated for participation in workplaces, schools and social settings.

New York is planning to be the first US city to require proof of vaccination for a variety of activities, including indoor dining, gyms and cinemas, while Google and Facebook were some of the first major tech companies to announce a vaccine mandate for those employees wanting to return to the office. Several European nations, including France, Italy and Britain, have already introduced a range of laws creating a two-tier society in which those vaccinated are given far greater freedoms to eat out, travel and socialise.

The Australian government is taking note. It has already proposed introducing QR-code vaccine certificates for international travel. Further measures similar to those in Europe and America are likely to follow.

The Age would advocate some caution. Vaccine mandates have played a positive role in encouraging many to finally roll up their sleeves. But in nations such as France they have also been met with widespread protests expressing genuine concerns over the curtailing of civil liberties.

People choose not to be vaccinated for a range of reasons. It is important that governments and health authorities don’t treat them as a single entity. A person just plain scared of getting a vaccine is different to one who believes inoculations will allow tech billionaire Bill Gates to control the world. Vaccine mandates may be necessary, but they are a blunt instrument that uses coercion over persuasion.

Australia has time to closely observe and learn from what is happening overseas. While mandates are likely to become a common policy tool to boost vaccination rates, governments should never give up on making the argument as to why it is so important to be inoculated. Australia’s success in restricting the virus has largely rested on the community’s willingness to follow the best of medical advice. That should also be the basis of our success in getting people vaccinated.

Gay Alcorn sends an exclusive newsletter to subscribers each week. Sign up to receive her Note from the Editor.

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