Monday, 30 Sep 2024

Israeli election outcome too close to call on eve of vote

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is fighting for his political life as the country’s election reaches its climax.

Tomorrow Israelis will go to the polls in a national vote, which is at this stage too close to call.

A new party Blue and White, led by former army chief Benny Gantz, is threatening to end Mr Netanyahu’s long reign in power.

Mr Netanyahu – a divisive figure – is facing allegations of corruption and many voters have been energised by Mr Gantz’s unity message and promise to clean up political life.

Jerusalem Post analyst Yonah Bob says his credentials as a former Israeli Defence Force boss also go down well in a country where security is often the central issue.

He told Sky News: “All the people that ran against Netanyahu until now, when the security issue came down – and that’s the way a lot of people vote in Israel, no matter what else is going on, in the US they may vote on the economy, in Israel, it’s almost always security and Gantz is the first person that neutralises that issue for Netanyahu.”

Writing Mr Netanyahu’s political obituary may however be premature.

Bibi, as he is known in Israel, is a dogged fighter on the campaign trail.

He knows how to energise his right-wing base and get voters out when it matters.

The polls have suggested his Likud party is slightly behind Blue and White – but not by much.

The election is, in many ways, now a referendum on Mr Netanyahu.

Those against him say he’s corrupt and needs to go. Those in favour believe the charges levelled at him are part of a left-wing conspiracy cooked up by the judiciary and the media.

Bibi is hoping his years in power and his undeniable reputation as an international statesman will secure the deal.

It was on his watch that the US moved its embassy to Jerusalem and recognised Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, captured from Syria in the 1967 ‘Six Day War’.

The perceived existential threat from Iran has also been countered with considerable skill.

This presents Israelis with a dilemma, according to the editor of the Times of Israel, David Horovitz.

He says voters will be weighing up two Netanyahus – the internal Bibi, who operates on the domestic stage and the external Bibi, who operates on the international stage.

“External Netanyahu – keeping the country safe. Internal Netanyahu – plagued by corruption allegations and so on,” said Mr Horovitz.

“Netanyahu very skilfully in the last few weeks has managed to shift the spotlight away from that.

“He’s made statements about planning to extend Israeli law to the settlements. He got this bonus from Trump about the Golan and so on. He’s tried to shift attention away from his corruption problems and to some extent with success.”

However Israeli elections are never simply a two way fight – there are more than thirty parties vying for votes.

Under Israel’s coalition system no party has ever had an overall majority.

The largest party normally will be given the chance to form a government, but not always.

It means that unless Benny Gantz’s Blue and White wins by a margin and some, it’s expected Mr Netanyahu’s Likud will still have the best chance of governing.

And that’s because the country’s right-wing bloc – which only he can likely command – remains very much in the ascendancy.

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