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London: Leading US pollster Frank Luntz says Donald Trump can re-win the presidency and that if that happens, US democracy could collapse.

Speaking to this masthead in London, where he was a guest speaker at the Centre for Policy Studies’ Margaret Thatcher conference, Luntz said he was wrong to declare in 2021 that Trump would never again be president.

US pollster Frank Luntz speaking at the UK Centre for Policy Studies’ Margaret Thatcher Conference in London on Monday.Credit: Ben Page

“I now have to acknowledge that it is a distinct possibility that Donald Trump could be elected president – I did not believe that one year ago,” he said.

“I did not believe that the search of Mar-a-Lago would be handled so badly, I did not believe that the indictment of him in New York would be handled so badly.

“I did not believe that his opponents would be so inept as to actually strengthen him and the combination of all of those makes him now viable, not just in the Republican primary but in the general election.”

Luntz said US democracy could collapse if Trump was reinstated by the American people.

“It’s now conceivable that in 2024 the country comes apart,” he said. “We have a 15 per cent likelihood of that destroying American democracy depending on what happens.”

“NATO is in jeopardy, clearly. Ukraine will no longer receive American support. Our legal system will be in jeopardy – I don’t want to contemplate it.”

He denied he was exaggerating or that comparisons to the United States surviving civil war were irrelevant in modern times.

“Everything that I would have [previously] said to you was impossible is actually happening,” Luntz said.

“It was never conceivable before, just as January 6 wasn’t conceivable, just as the election day wasn’t conceivable, just as Roe v Wade being overturned wasn’t conceivable.

“The Roman Empire could never fall until it fell, the sun never set on the British Empire until it came apart, the Greeks created civilisation and now look where Greece is.”

Luntz said the reason US democracy was so frail was because truth was now contested and no longer about agreed-upon facts. That means people consume news to affirm their own views rather than be informed, he said.

“Democracies can survive negativity and they can survive division,” he said. “They cannot survive rejection of the truth because in the end, the foundation of democracy is knowing the truth, that’s how voters vote correctly.

“The moment you stop seeking the truth and start rejecting it, actively, that’s the moment when you lose this wonderful system of government, and we are there right now.”

Luntz said Trump was weaponising the various court proceedings against him to fashion himself as being persecuted rather than prosecuted.

“He actually knows the language of victimisation better than any politician I’ve seen anywhere across the globe, and he uses it effectively and has caused people to rally around him.

“So he’s actually stronger today under two indictments, being found guilty of sexual assault, he’s actually politically stronger today than he was one year ago.”

Donald Trump still has a good chance in 2024.Credit: AP

Former US ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, Senator Tim Scott from South Carolina, former vice-president Mike Pence and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum are all hoping to beat Trump for the Republican nomination.

DeSantis is considered the candidate capable of posing the greatest threat to Trump, but Luntz identified Scott as having the best prospects of beating Biden.

“If Tim Scott gets the nomination he’s absolutely beating Joe Biden without any hesitation,” Luntz said.

Americans care about affordability, not the economy

Luntz said Biden was vulnerable and weaker than when he defeated Trump in 2020 because he had embarked on too much government spending that had added to the cost of living.

He said voters were no longer making decisions on issues but on attributes relating to the cost of living.

“They want certainty, predictability and security – against the next COVID virus, against the next economic collapse, against inflation, and by the way it’s not the economy that matters most or even inflation; it’s affordability,” he said.

“And they do not believe that Joe Biden’s succeeding in this area to a great degree.”

He predicted that the British Conservatives would hemorrhage previously-held Labor seats they won under Boris Johnson in 2016 because they were loyal to Johnson and not the Conservatives.

Johnson quit parliament on Monday, accusing a parliamentary inquiry investigating the parties held in Number 10 during COVID lockdowns of forcing him out in an anti-democratic witchhunt.

While British voters turned on the former prime minister for putting himself above the people, Luntz said this had not happened to Trump in the US.

“This is something that Trump has clearly done, but they forgive him for it, which is what I don’t understand, [and] which is why I’m particularly nervous about the state of politics in America,” he said.

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