The year 2020 has arrived, and the fireworks in London, both literal and figurative, have ended. Three and a half years after the people of Britain voted to leave the EU — after months of acrimony, party infighting, and one very decisive election — Brexit will have its day. As of Jan. 31, Britain will no longer belong to formal, political Europe.

From Remainer quarters and mainstream media there have long been predictions of the UK’s post-Brexit meltdown. According to these arguments, Britain, were it actually to leave the EU, must inevitably grow poorer as supply chains break down, foreign workers are unable to gain entry and tariffs replace frictionless trade with the continent. So ominous were these forecasts, and so oft-repeated, that they came to be known collectively as “Project Fear.” But there is a different, and more optimistic, prediction to make this New Year: namely, a Brexit Boom for 2020. Prepare to see Britain surge as an economic and investment powerhouse, prospering even through the tumult of global economic and political uncertainty.

Any disruptions that do occur will likely be in the immediate aftermath of Brexit Day. These may ultimately be similar to the infamous Y2K bug of 20 years ago: temporary blips rather than cataclysmic events, largely mitigated by upfront work and attention and by the transition procedures of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s withdrawal bill. After a landmark election victory, and wielding an 80-seat majority in the House of Commons, Johnson and the Conservatives hold a strong hand. If they play it correctly, diverging from status quo EU rules where desirable — especially on taxes and regulations — Britain can rise as a renewed economic force.

Brexiteers draw inspiration from the economic policies of a different island nation, Singapore, and some have hoped to make Britain into a so-called “Singapore on the Thames.” Since its independence in the 1960s, Singapore has gained a reputation for being low-regulation and pro-business, a magnet for investors with global pull. Certainly, Britain — after the Conservative election victory and after leaving the EU — is poised to lessen the tax burden on its citizens and establish a regulatory framework that favors its own industries. Like Singapore, it is well-positioned — both by its location at the intersection of global trade routes and by potential deregulation — to create a new center of economic gravity. One commentator, Italian journalist Beppe Severgnini, even claimed that the UK might become “a pirate ship off the coast of Europe,” pilfering both financial and human capital from the EU.

But, as some critics have noted, there exists another, less well-known side to the Singaporean system, which is more big government than buccaneer in nature. In many ways, Singapore buttresses its free-market and pro-business economy with government action. Some of its measures — especially its intrusive social laws, like a ban on chewing gum — would never take root in Britain. Nonetheless, Johnson’s reformulated, more populist brand of conservatism allows for state intervention that previous Tory governments would not have contemplated. In his calls for new investment in the National Health Service or a housing “stamp duty” policy that favors British homebuyers over foreign real-estate investors, Johnson follows Singapore’s example, mitigating the problems inherent in a deregulated free market. In this way, Singapore’s strategy, when shorn of its authoritarian tendencies, can provide a template for making an otherwise unharnessed economy socially feasible and sustainable.

Like Singapore, post-Brexit Britain stands to grow as an important center of international commerce, its free-market economic principles supported by robust, targeted government action.

In the future, it may be the EU which follows Britain and seeks to adopt its regulatory framework, rather than the other way around.

Augustus Howard is a research associate at Emmanuel College, University of Cambridge. He holds a Ph.D. from the University of Cambridge and a JD from Duke University School of Law.

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