Finland has a 'sizeable majority' in favour of joining NATO

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According to former Finnish prime minister Alexander Stubb, Finland will aim to join NATO as soon as next month – a move that, as admitted by the Kremlin, could force Russia to “rebalance” its security structure.

Mr Stubb, who headed Finland’s government in 2014 and 2015, said on Friday: “In the beginning of the war I said that Putin’s aggression will drive Finland and Sweden to apply for NATO membership.

“I said it was not a matter of days or weeks, but months. Time to revise: Finland will apply within weeks, latest May. Sweden to follow, or at the same time.”

Finland shares an 830-mile border with Russia. Their relationship, which had been relatively balanced until the start of the full-scale war on February 24, now hangs by a thread.

Helsinki’s position on Moscow’s aggression against Ukraine became obvious when the Finnish government halted its passenger rail services between the country’s capital and St Petersburg last month.

Run jointly by Finland and Russia’s national railways, the cross-border Allegro train was a symbol of cooperation between the two nations when it opened in 2010.

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The disruption, which completely broke the rail link between Russia and the European Union, marked a significant shift in a no-longer existent partnership, with Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto warning war in Ukraine had “totally changed the security landscape in Finland”.

The NATO matter is a sensitive one.

The alliance’s chief Jens Stoltenberg announced in early March they were now sharing all information on the war with Finland and Sweden, and both countries regularly attend NATO meetings.

“No other countries in the world”, he claimed, are closer partners of the 30-member alliance.

If that is already the case, would Finland’s — and Sweden’s, which has shown considerable interest in joining, too — membership make much of a difference?

Russia would ‘rebalance’ if Finland joins NATO says Peskov

Mr Stoltenberg, after highlighting the trusted relations with the two countries, noted a crucial detail: “The absolute security guarantees that we provide for NATO allies are only for NATO allies.”

Specifically about Finland, he said he believes all members of the US-led alliance would happily take their relationship a step further.

Speaking to CNBC on Friday, Mr Stoltenberg said: “If Finland decides to apply for membership, I am confident that NATO allies will warmly welcome them – and we can quite quickly make the decision to have them as a member of the allies.”

But as per Russian Senator Vladimir Dzhabarov, such a move may not be worth it.

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The prospect of Ukraine ever joining NATO lies at the core of Russia’s pretext for the so-called “special operation” that has so far killed thousands of people and displaced millions.

In that context, Senator Dzhabarov earlier this week called the potential application a “card for the destruction of their country” and suggested Helsinki could be setting itself up for a similar fate to Kyiv’s.

He said: “If the leadership of Finland goes for it, it will be a strategic mistake.

“Finland, which has been successfully developing all these years thanks to close trade and economic ties with Russia, would become a target.

“I think it [would be] a terrible tragedy for the entire Finnish people.”

Finland’s intelligence agency, Supo, said fake allegations of abuse of native Russians living in Finland might be used by the Kremlin to justify aggression.

It also cautioned the country could expect a sharp increase in Russian cyber attacks as well as bids to blackmail politicians in favour of joining NATO.

The agency added: “Finnish society as a whole should be prepared for various measures from Russia seeking to influence policymaking in Finland on the NATO issue.”

As for Russia’s security, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday if Finland and Sweden joined NATO then Moscow would have to come up with its own measures to “rebalance the situation”.

He told Sky News: “We’ll have to make our western flank more sophisticated in terms of ensuring our security.”

However, Mr Peskov clarified Russia does not see this as an existential threat of the kind that might prompt it to consider using nuclear weapons.

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