Russia: Gottemoeller shares concerns on Putin using WMDs

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Rose Gottemoeller, a former United States Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, said the momentum is on the side of Ukraine with maps showing the “amazing” amount of occupied territory Kyiv’s forces have wrested back from Russian control.

She said: “They have momentum on their side. I think the Russians were not expecting them to attack in the north east against Kharkiv. Everyone has been focused on the south east around Kherson. It looks like a textbook case of taking the Russians by surprise around Kharkiv.”

Ms Gottemoeller added recent events might represent a turning point in the war, but expressed caution over how Putin and his coterie might respond.

The senior US diplomat told the BBC: “I fear they might strike back now in really unpredictable ways and ways that may even involve weapons of mass destruction.”

Asked if Russia could launch a nuclear strike, she said: “Yes. I want to stress that I don’t believe the Russians will implicate their central strategic systems, their intercontinental ballistic missiles or submarine launched missiles that would strike at the United States, but we’ve been concerned from the outset of this crisis with Putin rattling the nuclear sabre, that he might put in play a nuclear demonstration strike, either a single strike over the Black Sea or perhaps a strike at a Ukrainian military facility in order to strike terror not only into the hearts of the Ukrainians but also the global partners and allies of Ukraine, who have been supporting Ukraine.

“The goal would be to try to get the Ukrainians, in their terror, to capitulate. I do worry about that kind of scenario at the moment and I think the Ukrainians seem well-prepared to stay the course, but we will all have to be ready to stay the course come what may.”

Just days after Russia invaded its neighbour, Putin put Russia’s nuclear deterrent on high alert. Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said in August there was no need to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine to achieve Moscow’s goals. However, the reality on the ground has changed since.

On how to avoid Russia using nuclear weapons, Ms Gotemoeller said: “We’ve done an excellent job since the start of this crisis, sending a clear message to Moscow that is: No impunity, we know what you’re up to. You cannot get away with, for example, false flag operations. At the early part of this crisis we were very concerned that the Russians would engineer biological or chemical attacks against certain targets in Ukraine and blame them on the Ukrainians, so we were very clear, putting out our intelligence and saying: We know what you’re up to.

“So I think we need to be alert at this moment to the same type of possibilities on the Russian side.

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“If it happens, I haven’t seen any evidence of it so far and I want to stress that, if there is a movement towards a weapons of mass destruction threat, I think we need to get it out and say clearly to the Russians: We know what you’re up to. No impunity here.”

She explained this would imply a response to Russia, stressing she is among a number of experts who believe, should Moscow use a nuclear weapon, the West should not respond in a nuclear way but bring its considerable capacity to bear, whether through a cyber attack or a conventional response.

Ms Gottemoeller, Deputy Secretary General of NATO between 2016-19, said: “We should not reach, immediately, for a nuclear response.”

The comments come as a British intelligence update suggested it is likely to take Russia years to rebuild the army it allocated to lead counter-attacks in the event of a war with NATO.

Elements of Putin’s forces withdrawn from the Kharkiv region of Ukraine over the past week were from the 1st Guards Tank Army (1 GTA), which had already suffered “heavy casualties” in the initial phase of the invasion, according to the Ministry of Defence (MoD).

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It said this army, considered one of the most prestigious in Russia, is allocated to the defence of Moscow and intended to lead counter-attacks in the case of a war with the military alliance.

The MoD said now it has been “severely degraded”, Russia’s conventional force designed to counter NATO is badly weakened and is likely to take years to rebuild.

It comes as Ukraine recaptured a swathe of north-eastern territory from Russia in recent days, said by the MoD to cover an area at least twice the size of Greater London.

In an update published to social media, the MoD wrote: “Elements of the Russian forces withdrawn from Kharkiv Oblast over the last week were from the 1st Guards Tank Army (1 GTA), which are subordinate to the Western Military District (WEMD).

“1 GTA suffered heavy casualties in the initial phase of the invasion and had not been fully reconstituted prior to the Ukrainian counter-offensive in Kharkiv.

“1 GTA had been one of the most prestigious of Russia’s armies, allocated for the defence of Moscow, and intended to lead counter-attacks in the case of a war with Nato.

“With 1 GTA and other WEMD formations severely degraded, Russia’s conventional force designed to counter Nato is severely weakened. It will likely take years for Russia to rebuild this capability.”

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has urged the West to speed up deliveries of weapons systems as Ukrainian troops move to consolidate control the territory seized back from Russia.

Since Moscow abandoned its main bastion in northeastern Ukraine on Saturday, marking its worst defeat since the early days of the war, Ukrainian troops have recaptured dozens of towns in a stunning shift in battleground momentum.

Mr Zelensky said Ukraine had recaptured roughly 2,400 square miles (6,000 square km) of territory. Russia has taken control of around a fifth of Ukraine since its troops invaded on February 24.

Putin and his senior officials have been largely silent in the face of Russian forces’ worst defeat since April, when they were repelled from the outskirts of Kyiv.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Monday side-stepped a question about whether Putin still had confidence in his military leadership.

Mr Peskov said: “The special military operation continues. And it will continue until the goals that were originally set are achieved.”

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