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Vladimir Putin’s veiled nuclear threats indicate he has a “limited goal” and is unlikely to consider targets beyond Ukraine, suggests Sam Cranny- Evans, an analyst for the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). But if Russia conquers and holds Ukraine, it will have a “commanding position in Europe”, said Jamie Gaskarth, professor of foreign policy and international relations at The Open University.

Putin has launched a full-scale invasion, with forces entering from the south, east and north.

Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg issued a pointed reminder that any incursion into a member state, for example in the Baltic, would be regarded as an attack on the whole alliance. He said: “Nato’s core task is to protect and defend all allies.”

But Putin is focused solely on Ukraine for the time being, rather than on bringing former Soviet states back into his sphere of influence, said Mr Cranny-Evans.

He stressed it would be a “stretch” to achieve a second objective and explained: “Ukraine is already costing the Russian forces in missiles, men and aircraft.”

“A lot of these are hard, expensive and slow to replace. They wouldn’t be able to attempt something else without replenishing.”

“The second point is they haven’t won yet – the end result of fighting in Ukraine will decide what state the Russian forces are in. Thirdly, current events suggest a geographically limited goal. The threats of nuclear force and escalation if any other country gets involved etc, all point to [being] focused only on Ukraine.”

“The question is, how does Nato respond to this to protect itself?”

Despite dire predictions about triggering a third world war, Prof Gaskarth suggests there are no guarantees that Putin will realise his ambitions with Ukraine.

He said: “They can’t hold the country for long. The goal is punitive. Putin wants to remove the government, replace it with a puppet regime and withdraw, probably to the breakaway territories. It’s completely irrational and has zero chance of working long term.”

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