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Cases are NOT falling as fast as official figures suggest, study says

07/29/2021

Is Britain’s Covid plunge too good to be true? Cases are NOT falling as fast as official figures suggest and testing the ‘wrong people’ means infections are being missed, symptom-tracking experts say

King’s College London experts estimated just over 60,000 people were catching the virus daily in latest week
This was a slight increase on the previous seven-day spell, when it was estimated 60,000 were infected daily
Professor Tim Spector said their results differed from official tallies because Covid’s symptoms had changed
Double-vaccinated people who are infected are less likely to suffer the classic symptoms, studies show

Britain’s Covid cases may not be falling as quickly as official data suggests, symptom-tracking experts claimed today.

King’s College London experts estimated just over 60,000 people were catching the virus every day in the week to July 24, the latest available. This was up slightly on the previous seven-day spell.

Experts behind the study said their results likely differed from the official tally because the swabbing drive which has cost the taxpayer billions was now ‘testing the wrong people’.

They pointed to their own data which showed vaccines had turned Covid into a ‘bad cold’ — with more than 70 per cent of Britons already having received both doses.

Double-vaccinated people who catch the virus are now more likely to suffer a headache, runny nose, sneezing and sore throat than the ‘classic’ symptoms, according to data. But officials have repeatedly refused to expand their warning signs list beyond a high temperature, new continuous cough and loss of taste and smell.

Guidance says Britons should only get tested for Covid if they are suffering from the three key warning signs, or if they are told to by Test and Trace. But experts warn this risks missing many infections in the early stages.

Professor Tim Spector, who leads the study with health data company ZOE, said the data showed Covid cases ‘have stopped rising for the last week and are holding steady around the 60,000 mark’.

‘This is in stark contrast to the rapid decline in cases recorded by the Government’s official confirmed cases data. The drop is much faster than we’ve seen in previous waves, even after full national lockdowns, leaving the accuracy of the official tally in doubt.’

Britain has recorded a week-on-week drop in cases for the past seven days, with infections dipping by 37 per cent yesterday to 27,734.

The figures prompted some top experts to say Britain may now be ‘very close’ to achieving herd immunity against Covid, and that the end of the third wave may be in sight.

University College London scientists estimate 87 per cent of the country’s population has some protection against the coronavirus. The team believes the marker for herd immunity now sits closer to 93 per cent, with the highly-transmissible Delta variant having shifted the goalposts.

But other experts say reaching herd immunity — when enough of the population has some immunity against the virus that it struggles to spread — against Covid is near impossible.

The Covid symptom study today showed there were just over 60,000 people catching the virus every day in the week to July 24, the latest available. This was a slight rise on the previous week when 60,000 people were getting infected a day. Experts behind the study said their figures differed from the national charts because Britain may now be testing the wrong people

The symptom study found the majority of new infections were among people who had not been vaccinated (36,102 new cases a day — blue line). They said more people who were double-vaccinated were catching the virus every day (14,110 – red line) than partially vaccinated people (10,268 – green line). They said this was because far more Britons have been double-vaccinated than have received one dose. The graph is shown as the infection rate per 100,000 people in each group. This has led to the single-vaccinated cases appearing to be higher than the double-vaccinated cases because far fewer people have received one dose, as have received both doses

Figures from health data company ZOE show Covid cases have plateaued in recent days (blue). This is in start contrast to daily figures from the Department of Health (orange) and their average (black) which suggest there has been a sharp fall in cases. Experts behind the app said the Department of Health may be picking up a fall because it was now testing the wrong people

This graph shows the daily percentage change in the seven-day Covid infection rate per 100,000 people split by age group. It reveals infections are falling fastest among young adults in their 20s (orange) by 15 per cent. Cases among 20 to 24 year olds fell from 1,091 per 100,000 on average on July 21, to 922.7 per 100,000 on July 22. But infections are dropping in all age groups. Among those in their early 80s (pale orange) they fell by 3.2 per cent from 74.9 per 100,000 on July 21 to 72.5 per 100,000 on July 22

This graph shows the seven-day Covid infection rate by age group since the start of June. It reveals cases are dipping in all age groups including older adults. It is difficult to see some lines bending downwards on the graph because of the different infection rates between age groups. Those aged 15 to 19 had the most cases (green) followed by 20 to 24 year olds (orange)

Boris Johnson (pictured at a police memorial today) has said it is still ‘too early’ to tell whether the fall in Covid cases is permanent. SAGE expert Professor Mike Tildesley warned the impact of Freedom Day is yet to be seen in the data

Dr David Matthews, a virologist from the University of Bristol, told The Telegraph: ‘In terms of herd immunity – by which we mean the virus has managed to reach everybody and therefore most people will have a level of immune memory – I suspect we’re very close to it.

‘Assuming nothing truly spectacularly leftfield happens then this pandemic is pretty much over for the UK. I suspect we will not see a major surge this winter, or any serious levels of fatalities.

‘The more we close the gap on the last 10 per cent who haven’t had the vaccine the better we will be. Everyone will eventually meet the virus and it is far better to do so vaccinated.’

But Downing Street has played down suggestions that the end of Britain being in a pandemic state was in sight. ‘No one here is declaring mission accomplished,’ a source said.

It came as Britain recorded another 27,734 Covid cases on Wednesday, down 37 per cent in a week for the seventh day in a row. But hospitalisations still rose and deaths increased by a quarter week-on-week.

Meanwhile, Boris Johnson has confirmed that crippling self-isolation rules are ‘nailed on’ to end on August 16 for the double jabbed, bringing hope of an end to the chaos caused by the ‘Pingdemic’.

From this date, the fully vaccinated will not have to stay indoors even if someone in their household gets the virus. They will not have to take a test either.

The Prime Minister said the jab rollout should allow for a ‘very, very strong’ economic recovery in the second half of this year. The developments come a day after a senior minister said the vaccine success story meant Covid’s grip on the UK was ‘all over bar the shouting’.

Mr Johnson is said to have been persuaded that the UK risked squandering the benefits of its vaccine rollout if the reopening of international travel was delayed further.

‘Some people will doubtless say we are moving too fast,’ said a government source. ‘But we know the vaccines are effective – if we cannot open up to fully vaccinated travellers then when can we?

‘The EU is already reopening to travellers from the US – why should American tourists be able to go to Paris or Amsterdam, but not London?’

Department of Health data today revealed that infection rates are now ticking downwards in every age group in England. Pictured: Practice nurse Nicola Morris vaccinates Lisa Hanson with the Pfizer vaccine in Doncaster

Scotland’s Covid hospital admissions (blue) have begun to fall around 10 days after cases fell, data revealed, after cases also dipped (red). Experts say it is ‘reasonable’ to expect the same to occur in England, with the nation’s downturn in infections delayed compared to Scotland because of Euro 2020

England has seen Covid infections (red) fall for the last seven days but has yet to see the trend in its hospital admissions, which usually follow by around 10 days. Professor Paul Hunter, an infectious disease expert at the University of East Anglia, told MailOnline while England may not see admissions (blue) fall on the ‘exact same day’ after their Euros exit as Scotland did, hospitalisations have already begun slowing

Professor Karl Friston, one of the modellers at UCL, said: ‘We are currently close to – but not at – herd immunity, according to real-time estimates.

‘The herd immunity threshold is currently about 93 per cent but our population immunity is only 87 per cent.

‘But as witnessed by the recent decline in notification rates, we do not need to reach a herd immunity threshold to bring the effective R-number below one and, in principle, suppress viral transmission.’

Professor Friston and colleagues were behind claims that Britain was days away from reaching herd immunity back in the spring, before the Delta variant took hold.

Highly contagious diseases — such as measles — require a greater proportion of the population to have immunity against them to stop their spread.

Scientists criticised the UCL modelling at the time, with one warning that it has a ‘history of making over-confident and over-optimistic predictions’.

Other experts say the concept of herd immunity for coronaviruses is a ‘myth’ because of the short immunity post-infection. For this reason, academics believe the virus will eventually become endemic and circulate in humans for generations.

However, they do accept that the concept of population immunity plays an important role in the trajectory of the pandemic, making the disease milder over time.

Experts said the downturn in cases was a ‘very good’ sign because it adds to mounting evidence that the third wave is in retreat. But they cautioned more data was needed before they could be certain the drop is permanent, and cases won’t tick up again following July 19 ‘Freedom Day’.

In another glimmer of hope, researchers also believe England’s hospitalisations will start to fall by the end of the week — mirroring a similar trend as seen in Scotland.

Figures show admission rates are already falling in Scotland, where cases began to drop around eight days after the country’s football team were knocked out of Euro 2020. Likewise, England’s drop in Covid infections began on July 19 — eight days after the Three Lions lost on penalties in an historic final against Italy.

Several members of SAGE have said a fall in Covid admissions would mark the beginning of the end of the third wave. But the number of infected patients needing medical care is still rising — albeit at a slower rate than it was.

But SAGE modeller Professor Mike Tildesley today said the pandemic isn’t all over ‘quite yet’ and warned the effects of Freedom Day are still yet to be seen in the data.

Boris Johnson said it was ‘too early’ to draw conclusions about the fall in the number of people testing positive for the virus.

Scientists say temporary factors like schools closing, last week’s hot weather and people not wanting to get tested before going on holiday may be behind England’s declining cases.

Others believe one of the major reasons for the drop — especially in younger people — is because groups are no longer meeting up indoors to watch the Euros.

Experts suggest the downturn in older adults could also be linked to warmer weather, allowing people to spend more time outdoors where the virus finds it harder to spread.

Scotland’s Covid hospitalisations are now falling in line with cases, according to official data which raises hopes that England could soon follow suit.

Scientists say admissions in England are likely to start dropping by the end of the week following its seven-day fall in cases — with infections now half the level seen a week ago. One senior Government minister last night claimed the coronavirus’s grip on the UK is ‘all over bar the shouting’.

Experts say one of the factors behind the drop in England is that people are no longer meeting up in large groups to watch the national team’s games in Euro 2020 tournament.

Cases rose quickest in men and young people during and following the tournament but began to drop in Scotland around eight days after the team were knocked out in the group stages by Croatia.

And likewise, England’s declining cases began on July 19 — eight days after the Three Lions lost on penalties in an historic final against Italy.

Professor Paul Hunter, an infectious disease expert at the University of East Anglia, claimed it was ‘reasonable’ to expect England to follow a similar timescale to Scotland in terms of its fall in admissions as well — which would see hospitalisations drop by the end of the week.

He told MailOnline that while England may not see admissions fall on the ‘exact same day’ after their Euros exit as Scotland did, hospitalisations have already begun slowing.

But the vaccines roll-out is also bound to have an impact, after more than 70 per cent of adults have received both doses including the vast majority of the over-70s.

Professor Paul Hunter, an infectious disease expert at the University of East Anglia, said cases in age groups may already be even lower because the latest figures are ‘about a week out of date’.

He hinted infections were dropping slower in older people because they tend to catch the virus from younger age groups. There will be ‘some lag’ between the different groups, he said.

Dr Jonathan Stoye, a virologist at the Francis Crick Institute, said the drop in Covid cases in all age groups was ‘very good’.

He told MailOnline: ‘But the key thing will be to wait until Friday when we will get the next round of results from the ONS (Britain’s largest Covid surveillance study).

‘One would predict it may be less sensitive to changes in the populations being tested, for example those resulting from school closures, than the Department of Health figures.

‘If the two measures are going in the same direction we would seem to be in a good place… unless, of course, the unlocking of July 19 causes a reversal.’

Department of Health data showed Covid cases were falling fastest among adults in their twenties last week, down by 15 per cent for the week ending July 22 compared to the day before.

But among older adults the decline was more gradual, suggesting cases were only just starting to drop in the age group. Infection rates dropped by just one per cent in adults in their late 80s.

The figures — provided by the Department of Health — are based on the rolling seven-day infection rate for age groups.

It is based on data from the actual day positive Covid tests were taken, as opposed to when they were recorded. For this reason, the most up-to-date statistics are seven days old.

The drop in cases was revealed by comparing the average infections between July 21 and July 22, the latest dates available.

Comparing infection rates to the week before showed cases are falling among young people, but were higher in over-45s than they were a week ago.

Experts said this was to be expected because cases had only recently started falling in older age groups.

Across England adults in their early twenties had the highest infection rate (947 cases in the last seven days per 100,000 people), followed by adults in their late twenties (923) and early thirties (842).

For comparison, cases were lowest in adults in their late 80s (68), followed by adults in their early eighties (73), and over-90s (75).

Scientists say the drop off in Covid cases could be caused by schools closing, recent warm weather and Euro 2020 boosting immunity in young people. Graph shows: The drop off in infections in England after the end of Euro 2020

Quarantine rules to be dropped for fully-vaccinated travellers

Fully-vaccinated travellers from the EU and US are set to be spared quarantine after ministers signed off an exemption today.

The powerful ‘Covid O’ group is understood to have agreed that the self-isolation requirements can be dropped for some of the UK’s major trading partners.

Ex-pats who have received jabs abroad are also set to benefit from the dispensation, which takes effect from 4am Monday.

All will still need to get tests in a bid to reduce the risk that they are infected.

Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said: ‘We’ve taken great strides on our journey to reopen international travel and today is another important step forward. Whether you are a family reuniting for the first time since the start of the pandemic or a business benefiting from increased trade – this is progress we can all enjoy.

‘We will of course continue to be guided by the latest scientific data but thanks to our world-leading domestic vaccination programme, we’re able to look to the future and start to rebuild key transatlantic routes with the US while further cementing ties with our European neighbours.’

Experts today also claimed hospitalisations in England could start to fall by the end of the week.

Professor Hunter said: ‘I think it reasonable to assume that sometime in the next few days we may start to see a fall in new hospitalisations, maybe not the exact same day [as Scotland did after the Euros].

‘In fact if you look at the rate of increase in England admissions, it does look like the epidemic of admissions is slowing.

‘Data on hospital admissions are often somewhat delayed before publication and Scotland’s especially can be delayed for almost a full week.

‘Of course whether such a fall is sustained after the effect of Freedom Day works its way into the system is still the big question. We will know at the weekend.’

Scotland’s Covid admissions — based on the seven-day average — began falling on July 10, when they peaked at 87 per day.

It occurred a full 18 days after the national team left the Euros on June 22 and ten days after infections started to fall.

The country’s cases peaked at almost 4,000 on June 30, Government data also shows.

England’s cases have already followed the same trend, with the number of positive tests declining after the national team lost in the Euros.

If the country’s admissions follow the same trend, they would be likely to peak by the end of the week.

Despite being on the rise with more than 800 infected people still needing hospital treatment every day, Covid admissions already appear to be slowing down across England.

Data shows the week-on-week percentage change — which measures how quickly hospitalisations are going up —has fallen every day for a week.

Growth rates went from 37.9 per cent on June 15 to 23.1 per cent on June 22.

Only the North East and Yorkshire — the country’s current Covid hotspot — still has admissions that are rising at pace.

How have cases dipped in your age group?

Age group

0 – 4

5 – 9

10 – 14

15 – 19

20 – 24

25 – 29

30 – 34

35 – 39

40 – 44

45 – 49

50 – 54

55 – 59

60 – 64

65 – 69

70 – 74

75 – 79

80 – 84

85 – 89

90+

W/e July 22 cases

150.6

333.2

730.6

947.3

922.7

842

706.7

550.7

479

378

328.5

265.8

202.5

137.2

101

86.8

72.5

68.3

75.2

% dip in a day

-4.3%

-5.4%

-5.8%

-13.2%

-15.5%

-14.9%

-12%

-10.1%

-8.2%

-7.8%

-6.6%

-8.1%

-5%

-3.7%

-1.9%

-3.2%

-1%

-1.8%

Britain’s daily Covid cases drop for the SEVENTH day in a row: UK records 27,734 positive cases – down by 37% in a week but hospitalisations and deaths rise by up to a quarter

Britain’s daily Covid cases have fallen week-on-week for the seventh day in a row, according to official figures that add fresh hope that the third wave may be behind the country.

Department of Health bosses posted 27,734 positive tests today, down 37 per cent on last week’s figure of 44,104.

However, the downturn in infections is still yet to be reflected in hospitalisation numbers, which lag behind cases by around a fortnight. Another 825 Covid admissions were recorded on Saturday — the latest date UK-wide data is available for. It was 17 per cent higher than the figure the previous week.

But there are promising signs the rate of growth in hospitalisations is beginning to slow and top scientists believe numbers may even start to fall next week, mirroring a trend seen in Scotland.

Meanwhile, 91 deaths were recorded today, up by a quarter on last week’s 73. Deaths lag even further behind the hospitalisation statistics, meaning fatalities will be the last measure to eventually level off.

With infection statistics now pointing in the right direction, one senior Government minister last night claimed the coronavirus’s grip on the UK is ‘all over bar the shouting’. Even notoriously gloomy SAGE advisers believe the worst of the pandemic is now over.

In another glimmer of hope, separate Department of Health data analysed by MailOnline revealed infection rates are now ticking downwards in every age group in England.

Experts said it was a ‘very good’ sign because it adds to mounting evidence that the third wave is in retreat. But they cautioned more data was needed before they could be certain the drop is permanent, and cases won’t tick up again following July 19 ‘Freedom Day’.

Fully-vaccinated travellers from the EU and US are set to be spared quarantine after ministers signed off an exemption today.

The powerful ‘Covid O’ group is understood to have agreed that the self-isolation requirements can be dropped for some of the UK’s major trading partners.

Ex-pats who have received jabs abroad are also set to benefit from the dispensation, which takes effect from 4am Monday.

All will still need to get tests in a bid to reduce the risk that they are infected.

However, there is no reciprocal arrangement with the US, which still has an almost blanket ban on Britons visiting.

Department of Health figures today show while hospital admissions across the UK are still rising week-on-week, their rate of growth is slowing down.

Data shows the week-on-week percentage change — which measures how quickly hospitalisations are going up — has fallen every day for a week.

It stood at 32 per cent on July 18, falling to 23.6 per cent on July 24.

Several members of SAGE, No10’s scientific advisory panel, have claimed a fall in Covid admissions would mark the beginning of the end of the third wave.

But Professor Mike Tildesley, a modeller at the University of Warwick, today said the pandemic isn’t all over ‘quite yet’, and warned the effects of ‘Freedom Day’ are still yet to be seen in the data.

Meanwhile, Boris Johnson today said it was ‘too early’ to draw conclusions about the fall in the number of people testing positive for the virus.

Separate data today revealed Scotland’s Covid hospitalisations are now falling in line with cases, raising hopes that England could soon follow suit.

Experts say one of the factors behind the drop in England is that people are no longer meeting up in large groups to watch the national team’s games in Euro 2020 tournament.

Cases rose quickest in men and young people during and following the tournament but began to drop in Scotland around eight days after the team were knocked out in the group stages by Croatia.

And likewise, England’s declining cases began on July 19 — eight days after the Three Lions lost on penalties in an historic final against Italy.

He told MailOnline that while England may not see admissions fall on the ‘exact same day’ after their Euros exit as Scotland did, hospitalisations have already begun slowing.

‘In fact if you look at the rate of increase in England admissions, it does look like the epidemic of admissions is slowing.

‘Data on hospital admissions are often somewhat delayed before publication and Scotland’s especially can be delayed for almost a full week.

‘Of course whether such a fall is sustained after the effect of Freedom Day works its way into the system is still the big question. We will know at the weekend.’

EAST OF ENGLAND: Hospital admissions are still rising in the East of England but at a slow rate as of the most recent data

LONDON: Admissions in London were at 130 on July 25, down from 141 three days before as hospitalisations start to round off in the capital

MIDLANDS: Hospitalisations are also starting to round off in the Midlands, down to 133 on July 25 compared to 146 on July 21

NORTH EAST AND YORKSHIRE: The North East and Yorkshire has seen one of the highest upticks in admissions this summer and hospitalisations appear to be continuing to rise

NORTH WEST: Admissions are relatively flat in the North West, with 123 patients admitted on July 25 compared to 151 on July 19

SOUTH EAST: Hospitalisations are still rising but at a slow rate in the South East, which recorded 79 admissions on July 25

SOUTH WEST: Admissions did appear to be falling in the South West other than an on July 25 — the most recent date data goes up to— when there were 83 hospitalisations

Covid cases are now falling in EVERY age group in England: Experts hail promising infection data

Coronavirus cases are now falling across all age groups, according to official data which boosts hopes that the end of England’s third wave may now be in sight.

Top scientists advising the Government warned it was ‘almost inevitable’ daily infections would spiral to 100,000 next month, with one even warning they could reach double this figure.

But in an unexpected twist which has puzzled scientists, cases have actually fallen every day for the past week — with yesterday’s count being just half of what it was a week ago.

Department of Health data today revealed that infection rates are now ticking downwards in every age group in England, dipping fastest among twenty-somethings.