Putin will ‘play his last card against UK’ says political analyst

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Tensions between Taiwan and China have spiked over the past month following the visit to Taipei by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. China staged war games near Taiwan to express its anger at what it saw as stepped up US support for the island Beijing views as sovereign Chinese territory.

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen said on Tuesday on the anniversary of a confrontation six decades ago in which Taiwanese forces beat back Chinese attackers, that Taiwan is determined to defend itself and invaders will incur a “heavy price”.

But a full-out war between China and Taiwan could see an even bigger war sparking on the European continent, according to Russia expert Matt Gertken.

The geopolitical lead at BCA Research told Express.co.uk that in a scenario where China was to attack Taiwan, the US could get involved to defend the disputed island from Beijing.

This in turn would give Russian President Vladimir Putin the strategic opportunity to attack Baltic states and spark a war with NATO.

He explained: “The problem is that if China engages in a conflict with Taiwan and the United States especially, you’ll notice the issue hinges on whether the United States defends Taiwan.

“The US is less likely to get directly involved and go to war directly with China over Taiwan.

“But it could happen. And if it does, then the US’ capabilities are going to be reduced because it’ll be trying to manage both of these fronts in Eastern Europe and in the Western Pacific.

“And in that context, once we start to develop the dynamic that we witnessed in in World War Two, which is that actions that Germany took would influence the actions that Japan took and vice versa.

“And it wasn’t necessarily just because they were coordinating, because they were allies. It also had to do with the reality of the situation, which was that when Germany expanded the conflict, it reduced the capability of Western powers to operate in East Asia.

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“And so in that environment, if the US is fully engaged with the conflict in the West Pacific with China, it’s going to have its hands full.

“And the Russians would then be faced with this opportunity because, over the long run, they are attempting to prevent the US and its allies from encircling Russia and reducing Russia’s buffer space.

“And they view the accession of those Baltic countries to NATO as a great mistake and a great threat to Russian national interests.

“So in that environment, I think the odds do go up that they would take action against those states even though it would precipitate a war with NATO.”

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The United States, which ditched formal diplomatic relations with Taipei in favour of Beijing in 1979, remains Taiwan’s most important source of arms.

China’s drills near Taiwan have posed a threat to the status quo in the strait and across the region, and democratic partners should work together to “defend against interference by authoritarian states”, President Tsai said.

Taiwan’s government says that as the People’s Republic of China has never governed the island it has no right to claim it or decide its future, which can only be set by Taiwan’s 23 million people.

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