Friday, 26 Apr 2024

What happens next with Brexit and UK after exit poll predicts Tory election win

Boris Johnson was on course to return to Downing Street with an overall majority today.

Having gambled his government and premiership, his decision looks to have been vindicated.

But what does five more years of Tory government mean for the country? These are the questions the nation will be asking today…

What will happen with Brexit?

The Prime Minister plans to railroad his Withdrawal Agreement through Parliament before Christmas to make sure we leave the EU by January 31.

Far from getting Brexit done, this triggers the start of months, if not years, of trade talks with the EU and countries including the US, India and Australia.

Johnson has vowed to get a trade deal with the EU by December 2020. If he fails we could face a no-deal Brexit on that date.

How that affects his government depends on the size of the Conservative majority. If Johnson wins comfortably he should be able to play for time, but if it is a narrow margin he will be in hock to the hard Brexiteers in his party.

Is Johnson safe as Tory leader?

Yes, for the foreseeable future, as long as his Brexit plans do not come unstuck. If he has a big majority he will be able to get away with far more than if he has only a slim Commons advantage.

John Major’s shock 1992 General Election triumph gave him only a small majority, leaving him at the mercy of his eurosceptic backbenchers.

If Johnson has only a narrow majority and strays too far from what the Tory hard right demands, there could be moves against him.

Are our public services safe in his hands?

The Tories have pledged more nurses, extra money for hospitals and schools and 20,000 more police.

But their spending plans really only mean a small cash boost for the NHS, with education, councils and the Home Office spending still below pre-2010 levels.

And they depend on what happens with Brexit.

If there is no trade deal the economy could slide and the Tories will not have money to invest in public services.

This could lead to a voter backlash.


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What else will the Tories do?

A healthy majority would allow Johnson free rein to implement many of the more controversial measures in the Tory manifesto.

Buried in the blueprint was a move to set up a Constitution, Democracy and Rights Commission. Many have seen it as paving the way for taking revenge on the courts for how judges interpreted the law over Brexit. Leavers claimed the judiciary hampered Britain’s withdrawal from the EU.

Within minutes of becoming PM in July, Johnson claimed he had a plan to fix social care. The manifesto showed he did not – instead revealing plans to “build a cross-party consensus to bring forward an answer that solves the problem”.

THE LABOUR POSITION

Things are looking bleak for Labour . It is 14 years since their last general election win, and they could be out of power for another five, until 2024. But how will the party react? And who will lead Labour into the next election?

Where does Jeremy Corbyn go from here?

 

The leader, 70, has lost two elections. It is highly unlikely he will be given a third chance. Leading Labour to its fourth successive general election defeat means he will almost certainly have to stand down. He has twice put forward his vision for the country – and twice voters have rejected it.

Allies hope he will stay on while the race to succeed him unfolds, unlike Ed Miliband who quit straight after the 2015 poll.

Corbyn, who has been an MP for 36 years, will probably return to the back benches where he will
no longer have to make the compromises that have often been necessary as a potential PM.

How will Labour MPs react?

 

With grim resignation. Most Labour MPs expected this defeat, having privately admitted that while parts of the manifesto were well-received on doorsteps, many voters just did not like their leader.

Some MPs will quietly welcome the chance to ditch Corbyn and perhaps install a more centrist party leader who has wider appeal.

Others will be sad to see him go, believing his real legacy is transforming the party into a mass-member movement and having shifted Labour left again with full-blooded socialist policies.


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Will there be another leadership contest?

 

Would-be candidates have been jockeying for position behind the scenes for months.

Shadow Business Secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey is tipped to run for leader.

Insiders suggest she has been groomed for the role.

Other potential successors are Shadow Education Secretary Angela Rayner, Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry and Shadow Brexit Secretary Sir Keir Starmer.

Labour has no deputy leader, with Tom Watson stepping down, so Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell could perform a caretaker role pending a contest.


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Could Labour split?

The defections in February when seven Labour MPs quit to launch The Independent Group for Change was a warning to any MPs thinking of splitting. Most of those soon abandoned their new party and turned to the Lib Dems.

If Corbyn walks away, Labour MPs are likely to try to unite behind his successor rather than stage another breakaway.

But there could be fresh tension between some moderate MPs
and harder left members. Centrist MPs will point to four successive defeats and ever bigger lurches to the left as evidence of the need to return to the centre ground.

But activists could try to anchor the party on the left, believing voters will eventually join them.

Can Labour bounce back?

Of course. The party lost four times in 1979, 1983, 1987 and 1992.

But then came three successive victories under Tony Blair – two of them landslides.

How Labour reacts to this latest loss will determine how much longer it spends out of power.

Source: Read Full Article

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