Labour 'may lead government in next election' predicts Harrop

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Election polls in the UK have long exposed a Conservative edge over the Labour Party. Tory governments have captured popular support and exerted control over the UK in decades-long stints since the 19th century. And while Labour has struggled to wrestle power from under them, there is one setting where the party has never given ground.

Recent polling shows Labour has held a concrete social media lead over its opposition.

The Twitter-savvy party has nearly double the number of followers than the Conservatives.

According to Statista, which analysed the Twitter support of the UK’s established political parties, roughly 903,800 people follow Labour.

The value is several times higher than the Conservatives, who have nearly half the numbers their competition boasts, on 515,800.

Close to 400,000 fewer people receive Twitter updates from the party in Government.

Other statistics show the Conservatives have historically failed to pip Labour from its social top spot amongst the UK’s political establishment.

Social Blade, which compiles figures from Twitter’s database, shows Labour has maintained a vast follower chasm with its opposition.

Since at least 2019, when the Tories surged to an 80-seat lead in Parliament, the party’s base has averaged at 300,000 fewer followers.

In September of that election year, Labour had 711,430 followers to the Conservatives’ 410,330.

Statista shows the party’s following groups more closely with the UK’s other parties.

The Liberal Democrats – which formed one half of a coalition government from 2010 – have 324,700 followers.

The SNP follows close behind with 320,200, within spitting distance of the Green Party on 315,000.

On the other end of the pile is Northern Ireland’s ruling Democratic Unionist Party (DUP).

The former one-time coalition ally to the Conservatives only has 47,700 Twitter followers.

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The DUP’s local opposition Sinn Feinn has the third least but more than triple this at 149,900.

Plaid Cymru sits between them at roughly 56,900, while UKIP and the Reform Party come fourth and fifth least popular with 219,800 and 196,600 followers each.

Labour’s performance won’t come as a surprise for politically-minded people who follow each party’s age demographics.

The most active age groups on social media also favour Labour politics.

As of April 2021, users aged between 25 and 34-years-old made up 38.5 percent of the platform.

YouGov polling found that in 2019, between 54 and 46 percent of this age group voted for Labour.

People aged 18 to 24 favoured Labour the most, with 56 percent voting for the party during the last election.

Conservatives have built their support with groups that traditionally eschew social media.

The same polling found the 70+ age group formed the primary base of Conservative support, with 67 percent voting for the party in 2019.

Britons aged between 40 and 69 continue to favour Tory candidates over Labour, according to YouGov.

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