Indyref2: Nicola Sturgeon announces date of referendum

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When the Scottish nationalists ask the compatriots to turn out again to vote on the future of Scotland’s place in the UK on October 23, 2023, the issue which will decide if the result matters or not is if it will be a properly constituted referendum. Despite the SNP’s claims that it will challenge the Westminster veto in the Supreme Court their best hope for having a meaningful vote will be with the support of a UK Government. That can only happen with a Labour Prime Minister.

The hard truth is that since the collapse of Labour in Scotland in 2015, when they went from having 41 of the 59 seats to just one over night, then it has been virtually impossible for them to win a majority in Parliament on their own.

This means Sir Keir Starmer  – or whoever replaces him as Labour if he signs over beergate – will need to do a deal with another party in order to govern after an election, if they can stop the Conservatives winning another majority.

Starmer will find himself in the role of MacBeth after he had met the witches in Shakespeare’s unlucky “Scottish play” noting: “I have bought golden opinions from all sorts of people.”

Those “all sorts” he will have to “buy” for a majority will be the Rejoiner Alliance of Lib Dems, Greens and the SNP.

The recent polls support this which show that under Starmer Labour cannot break 40 percent or get much further than six points ahead of the embattled Tories.

In the Techne UK/ Express tracker poll Labour were on a mere 38 percent, despite Boris Johnson’s woes while the Conservatives were on 32 percent and Lib Dems 14 percent.

According to the Electoral Calculus website under this scenario Labour and the Lib Dems may be able to hold a small majority of eight but this would not be enough to govern.

Instead, they would probably need to ask for support from the SNP on a range of issues with their predicted 52 seats.

What would be the price of such a deal?

Well to start with the three parties and the angle Green MP would be united in their desire to take the UK back into Brussels clutches and rejoin the EU.

In that sense they are a true Rejoiner Alliance with the Lib Dems already laying out a policy pathway of rejoining the EU in stages.

Already there is evidence that Labour and the Lib Dems were cooperating to defeat theTories in last week’s Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton by-elections.

The Techne UK poll for Express.co.uk shows that 66 percent of Labour, SNP, Green and Lib Dem voters want s Rejoiner pact.

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But what is less known is that despite being a unionist party Labour has a number of members who are in favour of independence or at least having a referendum.

Indeed, even though he is a Unionist, Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar has not ruled out supporting an independence referendum.

This means that Labour could easily buy SNP support by agreeing to Nicola Sturgeon’s date.

That puts the UK at serious risk of being broken up, especially again if Labour accedes to SNP demands on who the voters will be in the election and how it is conducted.

You may question if there will be an election before October 2023.

Many Tory MPs believe Boris Johnson could go this autumn to save his Premiership after the Partygate scandal.

Others believe an election could happen in May or September next year.

The truth is that even with an 80-seat majority the Government is fragile and the outcome of an election, especially if Mr Johnson remains in charge, is highly unpredictable.

If it all goes wrong not only will Brexit be overturned but the country will be broken up potentially by a Rejoiner Alliance.

It will be the end of Britain. That is the biggest danger of a Rejoiner Alliance.

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