Nicola Sturgeon tells EU 'we will return as an independent state'

And opponents can burst the SNP’s bubble by forcing the First Minister and her party to be honest with the people about the true implications of Scotland going it alone – a process Kevin Hague, chairman of the pro-Union think tank These Islands, refers to as “Project Fact”. Mr Hague set out his ideas in a blog published on his website entitled “Why Sturgeon may not actually be leading an unstoppable force”, in which he cited the SNP’s high levels of support in opinion polls, which also indicate backing for independence “has never been higher”.

He wrote: “It would be tempting to conclude that she leads a party and a movement with unstoppable momentum.

“That would be a mistake. Focus groups carried out by These Islands show that support for independence depends on a near-blind faith in Nicola Sturgeon and on voters remaining uninformed about simple facts.

Mr Hague suggested the research undertake by These Islands indicated roughly 20 percent of those who support independence came from people who voted No in 2014, and Remain two years later.

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He added: “These groups tend to describe their choice as a binary one – it’s either Boris’s Brexit or Nicola’s Independence.”

The biggest threat to Mrs Sturgeon came in the form of “economic reality”, Mr Hague said.

During the course of the focus groups, voters were sceptical when it was suggested to them that Scotland benefited from higher levels of public spending as a member of the UK than they would otherwise.

In his article, originally published in The Herald, Mr Hague added: “When presented with the simple facts – data provided by the Scottish Government which shows that Scotland currently ‘gets back more’ in spending than it generates in taxes – the participants’ reactions were surprising.

“We might have expected them to accept the veracity of the data but shrug their shoulders, but that is not what happened.

“Very consistently they simply refused to believe that the numbers could be true.

“It became clear that they could not reconcile their support for independence with the fiscal truth.

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“‘If this was true, surely nobody would support independence’ said one independence supporter.

“We were treated to a fact deniers greatest hits: ‘the oil revenues aren’t included’, ‘the figures are manipulated’, ‘lots of revenue is missing’ and so forth.”

Other sceptics fell back on a belief that Ms Sturgeon “had a plan” and suggested that ‘England would get rid of us if that were true’.

Mr Hague said: “If support for independence is built on fact-denial and blind faith in Nicola Sturgeon, it’s built on sand.

“Those who oppose separation should press our First Minister to be honest with the people: be honest about the public spending cuts that would inevitably result from the loss of UK-wide sharing; be honest that we can’t both keep the pound and join the EU; be honest about the fiscal austerity that would be required to launch a currency and meet the EU’s deficit criteria; be honest about the implications of erecting a border between Scotland and England.

“It’s not Project Fear, it’s Project Fact.”

Mr Hague also suggested MPs south of the border – not least Keir Starmer’s Labour Party – had a responsibility to emphasise the benefits of remaining in the Union.

He said: “Scots need to believe that they are valued as part of the UK.

“It’s about pride, self-esteem and self-respect, but right now these Scots feel unloved, disrespected and condescended to by Westminster.

“When did you last hear a Westminster politician of any party articulate why Scotland matters to the United Kingdom, why Britain would be immeasurably diminished were Scotland to leave?

“Politicians outside Scotland who would defend the Union need to find their voices and articulate why Scotland matters to them – and Scots need to hear it.

“The party political landscape may change, faith in Sturgeon could falter and facts might start to bite, but it will all count for nothing unless Scots feel valued because, above all, and in the words of one our focus group participants: ‘It’s how they make us feel’.”

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