Saturday, 14 Dec 2019

Polling suggests Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab at risk to tactical voting

Polling has suggested Dominic Raab could be at risk to tactical voting from Remain-backing voters in his Esher and Walton seat.

The Foreign Secretary won the Surrey constituency with a comfortable makority of 23,000 in 2017 but the new data suggests the ardent Brexiteer who backed no deal, is likely to come under pressure from Remain-backing voters trying to oust him.

The would-be Tory leadership hopeful first suggested the government could prorogue parliament to force through Brexit and was willing to back no-deal – both stances which have angered some of his Remain-supporting constituents. 

YouGov's MRP polling, which correctly predicted the outcome of the 2017 election, put Raab on a list of Tories who could be ousted by tactical voting.

The poll suggested the Conservatives are on 48% in the seat, while the Lib Dems are on 38% with Labour in third on 11%.


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Raab's Liberal Democrat challenger Monica Harding told HuffPost: ““We are breathing down his neck."

It would be a major scalp for the Liberal Democrats with some suggesting it could provide the "Portillo Moment" of the election.

It looks like a tough ask to unseat Raab from the figures in the last election.

In 2017, the Lib Dems came third with 10,374 votes, just behind Labour in second on 11,773. Raab won with 35,071.

But, although the Surrey seat has been solidly Conservative since its was created in 1997, 58% voted to Remain.

Separately the father of Harry Dunn is urging voters to oust Mr Raab after his handling of his son's case.

The 19-year-old died in hospital after a crash in Northamptonshire in August.

US suspect Anne Sacoolas left the UK claiming diplomatic immunity.

Tim Dunn confronted the Foreign Secretary outside a hustings in Esher and Walton during which he was also heckled.

Dominic Raab said today he is "not really" worried about losing his seat.

The Foreign Secretary's Esher and Walton seat in Surrey could be handed to the Liberal Democrats because of tactical voting.

But Mr Raab said he was "not really" worried, though said that "with a seat like mine, you never take anything for granted".

The Foreign Secretary is one of a number of high-profile Tories at risk including Iain Duncan Smith in Chingford and Wood Green and even the Prime Minister himself.

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