Monday, 17 Jun 2024

One question will define this summit – was a Brexit deal done, or delayed once more?

A European summit is, first and foremost, a triumph of logistics. Twenty-eight European leaders all turning up in the same place at the same time, ready to talk about the most pressing political issues facing their continent.

This time is no exception. These leaders, from countries of wildly varying size and economic power, will discuss their reaction to Turkey’s incursion into Syria, applications from North Macedonia and Albania to join the European Union, and the future make-up of the European Commission.

All of these are, to various leaders, profoundly important. And yet there is one issue that will attract the greatest attention, yet may not deliver a clear outcome. That, of course, is Brexit.

For a while now, diplomats preparing for this meeting have referred to it as the Brexit Summit. Or, at least, the latest Brexit Summit. There have been a fair few of these over the past few years.

Perhaps, though, this one feels a little different. Expectation of a deal buzzes around Brussels, inspired by a combination of optimism over a deal and weariness that it has taken so long to get to this point.

What we may get is a summit over two days, presented in two places and with two distinct themes. While the actual council meetings will happen in one building, talks may well be taking place inside the commission, involving British and European officials.

The council, as well as the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier and his team, have always insisted that negotiations must be completed before the summit, that talks would not be happening during the meeting itself. But one wonders whether, behind the scenes, talks will continue, especially if leaders think a deal is within sight.

Certainly they seem to want a deal. There is a feeling across many European countries (and not just in the UK) that Brexit talks have swallowed a painful amount of time and effort, and caused damaging uncertainty.

Perhaps that is why so many diplomats now say they want to make the most of the momentum that has been created around negotiations in recent weeks.

As for the themes, it’s easy to imagine that Brexit will be the be-all of this summit. But there are other big, meaty issues at stake.

The EU wrote a stinging rebuke of Turkey earlier this week – the first time it has chosen to “condemn” a country that is both a NATO member and also a candidate to join the EU.

The question of enlargement is also crucial to the bloc, with wild disagreements about whether North Macedonia and Albania’s desire for membership should be greeted with enthusiasm or scepticism.

Then there is the thorny – and significant – question of how much support will be offered to the new president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen.

She hasn’t even started in her job yet, but has already faced criticism from various quarters for reshaping the duties of her team of commissioners, and, according to some, for being too accommodating to the European Parliament.

The logistics are done now. The leaders are on the way and Brussels is about to be brought to a halt by the swingeing security that comes at times like this.

The agenda is full, but when we look back on this summit, one question will probably define it – was a Brexit deal done, or delayed once more?

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