Boris Johnson faces a difficult vote ahead for his Withdrawal Agreement.

Having agreed on a deal for Brexit with the European Union earlier this week, the issue now remains as to whether it will be passed by a vote in the House of Commons.

Parliament remains as divided as ever, with the Conservative Party finding that the DUP will not support the deal that Prime Minister Boris Johnson put forward due to concerns for Northern Ireland.

The other parties – Labour, SNP, Liberal Democrats , Independent Group, Plaid Cymru and Green Party – are also primed to challenge Johnson's deal.

But many of 21 former Tories are likely to back the deal, as are some Labour backbenchers – a mix of Brexiteers and Leave seat MPs who want the chaos over with.

So what are the odds that Mr Johnson will fail to pass a Withdrawal Agreement in Parliament just like Theresa May before him?

Latest odds on Brexit deal

Leading bookmaker Coral makes it odds on at 8-11 for MPs to vote in favour of Boris Johnson's Withdrawal Agreement in the House of Commons – but this would only be by the skin of his teeth.

Coral's Harry Aitkenhead said: "It is going to be touch and go as to whether Boris can convince enough MPs to back his deal but the early indications from a betting point of view are that he might just manage it.

"We make it odds on that the deal is accepted."

Meanwhile, fellow leading bookmaker Paddypower has it as evens for the meaningful vote to pass on Saturday, but odds of it not are at 4-5.

However, Ladbrokes have posted their latest odds for the Withdrawal Agreement Commons Vote, with the odds for Parliament both Accepting and Rejecting each sitting at 10-11.

Essentially, it seems too close to call right now, but let's look at the latest numbers in Parliament.

How the numbers stack up

After subtracting the MPs who don’t vote – chiefly Sinn Fein and the deputy speakers – Boris Johnson needs 320 MPs to vote for his deal.

However, if some MPs abstain, then the figure to pass the deal will be less.

Even if every Conservative MP voted for Mr Johnson's deal – which is unlikely – this gives only 287 votes, meaning Mr Johnson would need over 30 votes to close the gap.

The most votes that former Prime Minister Theresa May achieved for her deal was 279 – and Mr Johnson has the added complication of having effectively cut loose Tory MPs who voted against him.

There are 21 former Tory MPs who lost or quit the whip in order to oppose no deal, but now may vote to support the Prime Minister's deal (The 22nd is Sam Gyimah but he's now a Lib Dem).

Additionally, there are a few Brexit-backing Labour and Independent MPs on the playing field who could yet vote for Mr Johnson's deal.

However, 10 MPs for the DUP have vowed to not back the deal, which could prompt further Tory MPs to vote with them.

Rebellious MPs aside, all of the other parties- Labour, the SNP , Lib Dems, DUP, Independent Group, Plaid Cymru and Green Party – have vowed to not vote for Mr Johnson's deal. They have a total of 317 MPs.

The vote for the Withdrawal Agreement in the House of Commons takes place on Saturday, October 19, 2019.

State of the parties in Parliament

Boris Johnson's Brexit deal explained

Boris Johnson finally agreed a Brexit deal with the EU on 17 October 2019 – though it stills need approval from MPs and could face a heavy defeat.

Today's 64-page draft keeps a transition period up to 31 December 2020 but scraps the Irish backstop, an insurance policy designed at preventing a hard border between Northern Ireland the Republic.

In the backstop's place would effectively be 'two borders':  

The Northern Ireland Assembly – known as Stormont – will get a vote every four years on whether to let EU law continue. But this vote could be passed by a simple majority – denying the DUP a veto on staying under EU laws long-term.

For a full explainer click here.

Do you expect the deal to be passed? Let us know in the comments below.

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