Democrats have dominated Colorado state politics for years, but are by no means guaranteed to maintain control of the statehouse after the November election.

The Democratic governor, Jared Polis, however, remains more popular in Colorado than his State Capitol colleagues and President Joe Biden.

That’s according to a new poll by Cygnal, a national polling firm that works with GOP candidates and committees. The firm has a strong polling record and rates as trustworthy by the data journalism outlet FiveThirtyEight.

The poll was commissioned by the Republican State Leadership Commission, which works to elect Republicans at the state level. It was conducted Jan. 17 and 18, with the pollster speaking to 510 likely Colorado voters from all seven of the state’s congressional districts. The voter registration breakdown in the pool of respondents roughly mirrored the overall statewide breakdown as reported by the Secretary of State’s Office — 29% Democrats, 26% Republicans and 44% unaffiliated — though it slightly underweighted independent voters (37%) and slightly overweighted those affiliated with the two major parties (60% total).

Cygnal said its margin of error on the poll is 4.33%.

Respondents were split when asked whether they feel things in Colorado are generally “headed in the right direction or off on the wrong track,” with 47.5% choosing the former and 45.9% choosing the latter. They were similarly split when asked whether they’d elect a generic Republican or Democrat to the state legislature, with respondents very narrowly leaning right — 43.7% to 42.6%.

Colorado Democrats have controlled state politics since 2018, when they flipped the state Senate and maintained the state House and governor’s office. They also control the offices of the treasurer, attorney general and secretary of state, the University of Colorado Board of Regents, both U.S. Senate seats and four of Colorado’s seven seats in the U.S. House.

While their lead in the state House, 41 seats to 24, is safe from all but an unprecedented red wave election, the state Senate majority, at 20 seats to 15, is more fragile. Republicans need only to flip three seats to win back that chamber, which would hugely change dynamics at the Capitol even if Democrats maintain the House and Polis wins re-election.

The governor’s chances look strong, Cygnal found. The poll found negative net favorability ratings for Democratic Colorado state legislators (-13.1%), Biden (-14.5%) and elected Democrats in D.C. (-19%) — but Polis rated with a net favorability of 6.6%.

The Boulder Democrat has consistently polled well during his first term and is widely favored to win again this year. He’s also a centimillionaire who has shattered state self-funding records throughout his political career.

He’s played his messaging safe during this reelection campaign, focusing almost single-mindedly on kitchen-table issues and avoiding more controversial, though still pressing, topics such as abortion rights, gun safety and election security. The Cygnal poll helps explain his positioning; a 30.7% plurality of respondents said “addressing the cost of living” should be the top priority for state government. That was followed by “getting things back to normal following the COVID-19 pandemic” at 17.9% and “creating jobs and growing the economy” at 13.3%.

Only 6.7% of respondents said “social issues, like the Second Amendment and abortion” should be the top statehouse priority. The poll made no mention of climate change, a present and worsening threat to many aspects of life here and around the world, in its list of options for respondents’ top policy priorities.

Despite the governor’s evident popularity, 47.4% of poll respondents said they would “probably” or “definitely” support Republican state legislative candidates “who would act as a check and balance on Gov. Polis,” while 43.5% of respondents said they would “probably” or “definitely” support Democrat state legislative candidates who support the governor’s agenda.

Polis and statehouse Democrats — particularly progressives — have often been at odds during the governor’s first term, including on labor issues, fiscal policy, immigration and climate change. They generally agree on social issues, but his libertarian views have drawn ire from the left at many points, and made it more difficult for Republicans to paint him as a typical Democrat. Recently, Polis made a national name for himself as a rare Democratic governor who largely resisted strict public health measures, such as mask mandates and vaccine requirements, even as the omicron variant of the virus spread rampantly through the state and country.

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