Friday, 15 Nov 2024

Date of the Brexit vote that could topple Theresa May confirmed

MPs will vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal on Tuesday 11 December, it has been confirmed.

The House of Commons is set to debate the pact for five days in the most significant showdown in years.

More than 100 Tory or DUP MPs have indicated they could vote against the deal – enough for a crushing defeat.

The Prime Minister will launch a "campaign" to win the public’s backing with a UK tour starting tomorrow, a private briefing tonight for Labour MPs, and even potentially a TV debate with Jeremy Corbyn.

She insisted today Brexit will not cause ‘Armageddon’.

But Jeremy Corbyn accused her of "an act of national self-harm" as she staked her entire premiership on the deal.

The PM declared a better deal impossible and did not rule out resigning, or her government being toppled, if it falls.

The date was revealed in a letter from Tory whips to MPs, which revealed debate on the deal will take place on December 4-6 and December 10-11.

Votes in the House of Commons take place at the end of the final day of debate.

Mrs May confirmed in the Commons chamber: "I’m looking ahead to December 11th, when this House will be faced with a decision as to whether or not it wishes to deliver on the vote of the British people with a deal that not only delivers on that vote but also protects their jobs."

Brexit deal countdown

Early December: Theresa May tours UK with two-week "campaign" to sell her deal directly to the British public.

11 December: A vote in the House of Commons on the deal.

13 December: The last chance EU Council summit, where deal could come back for more negotiation.

20 December: Parliament rises for its Christmas break. Final or ‘re-run’ vote by MPs must be held before now. If it fails there could be no deal, or a general election, or a second EU referendum.

29 March 2019: Brexit Day. If there’s a deal, this will be a total anticlimax because a transition will be in place. If there’s No Deal, planes could be grounded, ports jammed up and customs checks thrown into chaos at 11pm.

31 December 2020: If there’s a deal, this is when the transition period – which continues pretty much all the EU rules we have now – is supposed to end. But it could be extended by two more years.

1 January 2021: If there’s still no deal, under current plans a "backstop" would kick in. This could keep the UK tied to EU customs rules, until a proper agreement is reached, in exchange for keeping the Northern Ireland border open.

Read the full guide to the timetable here.

It came as Tory MPs lined up to warn the PM to her face they will defeat the deal – a day after it was agreed by all 27 EU leaders.

Loyalist Michael Fallon, the ex-Defence Secretary, broke ranks to brand the deal a "huge gamble" and ask: "Is it really wise to trust the future of our economy to the EU’s best endeavours?"

Boris Johnson said the PM’s "frank admission" that it was "unsatisfactory" was a "bit of an understatement".

He said firms were being told the UK would effectively remain in the customs union and single market while the PM boasts of taking back control. "They can’t both be right. Which is it?" he said.

Ex-Brexit Secretary David Davis demanded she make the second half of the £39bn divorce payment "conditional on delivery".

Tory Brexiteer Mark Francois said she "knows the mathematics" and "this will never get through".

Will Theresa May win the Brexit deal vote?

Theresa May has a Brexit deal, but the danger is looming that it will be defeated in the House of Commons.

Even getting it past her Cabinet forced Esther McVey and Dominic Raab to resign. Now she faces one more hurdle – a vote in Parliament on December 11.

MPs are grouped in several factions – their warring opinions are explained more fully here.

But if 318 or more vote against the deal, they will defeat the deal.

Against the deal

TORY BREXITEERS: There are up to about 80, led by Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg, threatening to vote down a deal that keeps Britain trapped in "vassalage" with Brussels. Not all are expected to live up to their threats.

TORY HARD REMAINERS: Only about a dozen, but many – including Justine Greening and Jo Johnson – will vote against, instead wanting a second referendum.

DUP: Theresa May’s Northern Irish allies – who she handed £1.5bn – are 10-strong. They say they will vote down the deal.

LABOUR LOYALISTS: About 150 MPs are consistently loyal to Jeremy Corbyn on Brexit. They’ll be told to vote against the deal because it doesn’t meet Labour’s ‘six tests’.

LABOUR REMAINERS: There are about 50 hard Remainer Labour MPs. They’re likely to oppose the deal to avoid enabling a Brexit.

OTHERS: The SNP (35), Lib Dems (12), Plaid Cymru (4) and Greens (1) are all likely to vote against.

For the deal

TORY LOYALISTS: Well over 200 are likely to vote with Theresa May, for the deal. Many have paid government jobs – so would have to quit if they oppose her.

‘NERVOUS LABOUR’: Some Labour MPs could BACK a deal – fearing otherwise Britain will be plunged into an even worse No Deal. There could be 20 or more. Caroline Flint is among them.

Unknown

LABOUR BREXITEERS: There are only about half a dozen. It was generally thought they’d side with Theresa May, but Kate Hoey MP broke ranks and said she could vote against.

SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford accused the PM "selling out" fishermen – after French President Emmanuel Macron said he would demand access to British waters, or trap the UK in EU customs rules.

And Brexit committee chair Hilary Benn made a wounding attack on the Prime Minister.

He said she had put off decisions until "a time when the EU will have much greater leverage" because a trade deal will be in the offing – with EU leaders having the power of veto.

Yet Mrs May is refusing to drop the deal – saying it is the "only one possible" and MPs have a "duty" to back it.

The Prime Minister today said MPs would be judged by their constituents – hinting those who defy her could lose their seats.

And she said voting against the deal would take Brexit "back to square one.".

But Jeremy Corbyn told MPs: "Under this government we’ve never got beyond square one."

Blasting the PM’s "profound weakness", the Labour leader said it was "not in the national interest" to "plough on" without the support of MPs.

"Ploughing on is not stoic – it’s an act of national self-harm," he said.

Key points from UK’s 611-page Brexit deal with EU

The Brexit deal agreed by Theresa May and the EU covers two areas: the Withdrawal Agreement, covering the UK’s exit from the EU, and the Political Declaration on a Future Framework, which sets out the relationship with the EU after Britain leaves.

Key details on the Brexit deal include:

1. The Withdrawal Agreement

  • The transition period can be extended until 2022 – after the next election
  • Goods face being checked between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK
  • A ‘backstop’ could extend EU customs rules UK-wide – and we’d need Brussels’ permission to quit
  • European courts will still have a big hold on the UK

2. The Future Framework

  • "Comprehensive arrangements that will create a free trade area" – not exactly the "frictionless trade" hoped for
  • Possible EU access to British fishing waters
  • We would remain tied to European courts
  • We’d respect human rights laws
  • Visas needed for long term trips to the EU
  • It has built in vagueness – kicking the can down the road for further negotiations

Read about the deal in more depth here.

The vote will happen less than 48 hours before the next scheduled summit of EU leaders in Brussels.

The timing prompted speculation that Mrs May could go back for further negotiation in a bid to improve the deal.

But as EU leaders rubber-stamped the deal yesterday – in a meeting lasting 38 minutes – they declared it was the only one that would be on offer.

European Parliament President Antonio Tajani said it would be “impossible” to reopen talks on the 585-page withdrawal pact.

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said: "If the House [of Commons] say no, we would have no deal."

Dutch PM Mark Rutte added: "There is no Plan B. If anyone thinks in the UK that by voting No something better would come out of it, they are wrong."

Lithuania’s Prime Minister warned Mrs May faces an election or a second Brexit referendum if her deal is voted down.

Dalia Grybauskaitė said there are "at least four possible scenarios" which could include a "return for the vote of the people" or "new elections".

Fury over two big new spats with the EU

France warns – we’re coming for your fish

The French President made it even harder for the deal to pass yesterday – as he confirmed Brexiteers’ worst fears about the next phase of talks.

Emmanuel Macron revealed he will seek “access to British waters” for French fishermen as part of trade talks – or threaten to keep the UK trapped in EU customs rules indefinitely.

27 EU leaders agreed a fishing deal, to be struck well before December 2020, must “build on existing reciprocal access and quota shares.”

Mr Macron warned: “All our fishermen will be protected.”

Tory MP Ross Thomson warned that was “deeply troubling” and Lesley Laird, deputy leader of Scottish Labour, said it was a “clear breach” of ministers’ red lines.

Theresa May slapped down the French President.

She said: "It is no surprise some are already trying to lay down markers again for the future relationship, but they should be getting used to the answer by now: it is not going to happen."

Spain warns – we’re coming for Gibraltar

The Prime Minister remained embroiled in a row with Tory MPs over her “capitulation” on Gibraltar.

In a bid to get Spain to sign off on the deal, she agreed the Rock may not be part of a future trade pact.

Spain branded it the greatest development since the 1713 Treaty of Utrecht conceded the Rock to the UK.

Tory MP Nadine Dorries said: "She’s abandoned Northern Ireland and now Gibraltar. It’s almost beyond words how bad this is."

Mrs May insisted policy had not changed – and was backed by a senior EU diplomat, who said Spain’s behaviour was "outrageous” and other nations were "irritated".

The diplomat told the Mirror: “I hope they haven’t made it more difficult for May in Parliament.

"She has it difficult enough already. If that tips it over the balance, that will be very unfortunate."

Read More

Latest Brexit news

  • Date confirmed for Brexit deal vote
  • TV debate: Corbyn tells PM ‘bring it on’
  • PM admits ‘EU queue-jump’ jibe was wrong
  • May slaps down Macron over fishing
  • Timetable – dates and what happens next
  • Summary of the deal and sticking points
  • Will Theresa May win the Commons vote?
  • What will No Deal really mean?

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