ANALYSIS:

It’s impossible to know how many more people got vaccinated because of the mandates and the vaccine passes.

Public health experts speculate that they saved hundreds of lives by pushing up vaccine coverage, which, a year ago, were hoped to be as high as 80 per cent of the eligible population, but today sits at 95 per cent.

It’s also clear they’re no longer needed as they once were.

For the workforces affected by the mandates, almost all of the relevant workers are vaccinated, and removing those mandates isn’t going to see that reversed.

Almost 99 per cent of the 6335 Corrections staff covered by the mandate are double boosted, and all but 91 – including 65 frontline custodial staff – have been boosted. Those who haven’t – many of whom are on extended leave – face redeployment if they return to work without a booster.

A DHB spokesperson said everyone in the affected DHB workforce, numbering about 92,000, has had two doses, while about 85,000 – or 93 per cent – have been boosted. They aren’t required to have a booster until six months after their second dose.

“DHBs are encouraging all staff to get a booster when they are eligible, three months after their second vaccination,” a spokesperson said.

Less than 1 per cent – 222 staff in total – were stood down because they hadn’t met their vaccine obligations.

“These people do not need to provide proof of vaccination until they return to work.”

For the 13,300 Fire and Emergency staff affected by the mandate, 97 per cent of employees and 92 per cent of volunteers had had two jabs; 2.6 per cent of employees and 6.6 per cent (including those on leave) of volunteers are either unvaccinated or have not provided their vaccination status.

“Booster vaccine requirements are on a rolling schedule due to the timings of primary doses for individuals and we are monitoring these carefully,” a spokesperson said.

There are no official figures for the education workforce, but it’s not unreasonable to assume high vaccination coverage similar to other mandated workforces.

A Ministry of Education survey from December, before a booster shot became part of the mandate, showed that 97.6 per cent of registered teachers, 95 per cent of teacher aides, and 95.5 per cent of other affected education staff were vaccinated.

Neither of the teacher unions, the PPTA and the NZEI, said they had surveyed their members to ask about vaccination uptake.

“It’s up to school management to ensure their staff are compliant with the mandates,” a PPTA spokesperson said.

And all of the 9302 active border workers are double dosed, while 7 per cent – or 660 workers – are yet to have a booster jab. They also have a six month booster window after their second dose.

And almost all Ministry of Education staff have been vaccinated as required – 99 per cent, or 2824 workers out of 2853.

In February the High Court quashed the vaccine mandate affecting the Police and the Defence Force, saying the mandates breached the workers’ right to refuse medical treatment under the Bill of Rights Act and was a justifiable limit based on health reasons.

But the mandates had already had the desired effect – less than 1 per cent of those combined workforces – 31,000 workers – were unvaccinated.

Police were unable to provide the latest figures for the 10,500 -odd police staff covered by the mandate.

By mid-January, when the mandate for the police was announced, 98 per cent of them had had at least one dose, up from 92 per cent at the end of November. Plans were being made to stand down staff who failed to meet their vaccination obligations.

And as at February 28, almost 99 per cent of NZDF members had had two doses, while 99.8 per cent had had one dose.

Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins has pushed back on the judge’s decision.

“So the judge made the decision to effectively overturn that on the basis that there was only a handful of people who weren’t vaccinated – but that wasn’t the case when the mandate was put in place. For the police, they were only at about 80 per cent [before the mandate],” he said in a recent interview with the Herald.

“And you’d really be crystal-ball-gazing to say we would’ve got a very high level of vaccination if we hadn’t had the mandate.

Hipkins added that the mandates were no longer needed, and would likely be progressively rolled back, because coverage was now so high.

It makes sense, however, to keep them in high-risk settings including hospitals and aged-care facilities.

Once the Omicron peak has passed – expected to be within weeks – vaccine passes will also be far less useful than they were when we were dealing with Delta.

One reason is that they only require two doses, not three, even though two doses are far less effective at preventing severe disease with Omicron. This is the most important metric to consider when easing pressure on the health system is the goal.

The other reason is that the vaccine isn’t that good at preventing transmission, so stopping the vaccinated and the unvaccinated from mingling together in a bar isn’t going to make much difference to the overall level of community infection.

There will also be a lot more immunity in the population – including among the unvaccinated – once we come down from the Omicron peak, which could see as many as half the population infected.

There is certainly a case to keep the vaccine passes in the toolbox and to update them for the post-Delta era so that three doses are needed. They can be easily reintroduced if, for instance, a new variant arrived.

Requiring three doses might also incentivise some of the 950,000 eligible Kiwis still yet to get a booster.

They pose one of the biggest question marks around how big this peak is going to get.

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