Friday, 15 Nov 2024

Corbyn blow: Tories have 16 point lead – and Labour voters more likely to switch

And Jeremy Corbyn has been dealt a blow with the survey revealing Labour voters are more likely to change their minds between now and next month than Tories.

With the election looming on December 12, Labour, led by Mr Corbyn, is fighting to make up ground on Prime Minister Mr Johnson’s party.

Labour published its own manifesto today, proposing an ambitious programme on public spending on NHS, benefits, homes and the re-nationalisation of utilities.

However, Ipso MORI’s survey suggests the party has a mountain to climb, with the Conservatives on 44 percent to Labour’s 28 percent.

Jo Swinson’s Liberal Democrats are on 16 percent, while Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party is languishing on three percent, level with the Green Party.

The numbers take into account reallocating vote intentions in seats where the Brexit Party, Liberal Democrats, Greens and Plaid Cymru are not standing.

Three in five (59 percent) of voters say they have made up their mind on who they will vote for.

However, one in five (20 percent) say they may still switch.

For comparison, in May 2017, 32 percent said they might change their mind.

Gideon Skinner, Head of Politics at Ipsos MORI, said: “The public are telling us that they care more about the outcome of this election than previous ones, and yet four in ten say they might change their minds – also more than in 2017.  

“At the moment the Conservatives have most reason to be pleased – they keep their lead in voting intentions and their supporters are less likely to say they may change their mind than Labour or the LibDems.  

“But there is clearly potential for this to change as the campaign continues.”

Brexit is viewed as the top issue helping voters decide which party they’ll vote for, with 63 percent mentioning it.

The NHS is mentioned by 41 percent), education by 21 percent, taxation and protecting the environment by 11 percent, and managing the economy by nine percent.

Brexit is particularly important to Conservative and Liberal Democrat supporters (76 percent and 77 percent respectively), while Labour supporters are just as likely to pick the NHS (by 48 percent to 45 percent saying Brexit).

Most Britons (70 percent) say they will vote for the party that best represents their views – slightly fewer than in the run up to the 2017 and 2015 elections (75 percent in May 2017 and 85 percent in May 2015).

Tactical voting seems to get short shrift – just 14 percent said they would vote for a party to try and keep another party out.

Nevertheless,  the figure rose to 23 percent of those who said they will vote Liberal Democrat.

• Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative sample of 1,228 adults aged 18 and over across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone between November 15 and 19, 2019.

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