Sunday, 17 Nov 2024

Conservatives and Labour could move to greater Brexit extremes following EU elections

It is customary on nights like last night, where both Labour and the Tories have performed badly, for political journalists to trot out the trusty, if glib cliche, that voters were saying “a plague on both your houses”.

Except for this set of European election results, it doesn’t quite cut it. The results for the two main parties are so bad that “pandemic” might be more appropriate than “plague”.

Collectively, Labour and the Conservatives have won just over a fifth of the vote.

The two main parties which have dominated British political life for over a century can barely muster one in five voters to plump for either one.

The Conservative performance is particularly baleful. They couldn’t even reach the double digits. It is their worst result in a national election ever.

Not since the Great Reform Act was passed in 1832, when British democracy began its long tortuous route to maturity, have the Tories done so badly.

They haemorrhaged votes to Nigel Farage’s new Brexit Party. Some have suggested that Mr Farage is merely repeating his 2014 performance where he led UKIP to victory.

Such a blithe dismissal is wrong headed. Firstly, that 2014 result was extraordinary: Mr Farage became the first man since David Lloyd George to win a national election not sporting a Tory or Labour rosette.

Repetition alone would be impressive. However, Mr Farage has gone above and beyond that feat. He beat his UKIP vote share (32% vs 27%) and increased the number of seats (29 vs 24).

Indeed, the Brexit Party will now be the joint biggest party in the European Parliament, tied only with Angela Merkel’s CDU.

Considering the party did not exist only a month ago, considering it had no ground organisation, considering it was still competing with a rump UKIP (now completely dead), it is a remarkable achievement.

The problem with drawing a neat line under that and declaring an unequivocal Brexit Party victory, is that it wasn’t the only remarkable achievement of the night. The Lib Dem phoenix rose again.

The scale is extraordinary: they’ve gone from their worst Euro performance in history in 2014 (one seat) to their best this time around (16).

They were a clear second, beating Labour even in London and can credibly call themselves the party of Remain in England. Taken in the round with their recent local election success, their recovery is as stunning as it is rapid.

The Greens had a very good night too, ending with seven seats, replicating a solid night of gains for their sister parties across Europe.

The SNP and Plaid too gobbled up vote share. They were all feeding on the Labour carcass. They just about came third nationally.

Even in Wales, where they’ve been dominant for a century, they came third not only behind Brexit but also, for the first time, were beaten by Plaid. Many in Welsh Labour, with half an eye to the Welsh Assembly elections and the other half on Labour’s destruction in Scotland (fifth place in these elections) will be feeling worried.

Everywhere it was a truly lamentable performance. Labour’s ambiguity which for so long appeared to serve the party well, has now began to cost it dear. Neither completely remain, nor completely leave, there are vanishingly small numbers of voters who mirror their confusion.

There was a mandate available in these elections and the problem is, both sides have it.

The Brexit Party can point to their excellent performance, they can say they came a clear first, in share of the vote and seats, that they ran on a no-deal prospectus and were endorsed.

And yet… Remain parties made the most gains. Moreover if you add together the votes of parties which actively want or have accepted the possibility of a people’s vote/second referendum and compare them to those which don’t, then the result is around nine million vs seven million.

Both sides can claim a victory. Both sides a mandate. And they will.

In sum, the parties with the clearest message on Brexit won and those with the most confused, lost. Who’d have thunk it?

It is likely both main parties react to these results by moving to ever greater Brexit extremes in an attempt to stop the bleeding; the Tories will embrace no-deal, Labour a people’s vote more wholeheartedly. It may be too little, too late.

In the meantime, Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn can reflect that they have each achieved something: the worst results for either of their parties ever. Even more remarkable they’ve managed to do it at the same time. Looks like they’ll make the history books, after all.

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