Bye Bye Brexit – we’ll never leave the EU now
There’s nothing quite so comical as a seismic moment in history that leaves the landscape looking exactly the same.
Because the long-demanded "meaningful vote" Parliament had last night has managed the momentous change of putting us in precisely the same position as before, with the same problems and the same Prime Minister who’s been cocking things up the same way for ages.
It’s all very well for 118 Tory MPs to rebel against Theresa May’s Brexit plan, but their failure to rebel properly before Christmas means her leadership is safe for another year.
Jeremy Corbyn can call a no confidence vote, but all those who don’t have confidence in HER have even less confidence in HIM, so will find enough confidence to vote for Theresa.
The current Corbyn plan is apparently to keep calling no confidence votes until she loses.
Which requires two thirds of the House of Commons to become more confident in a man who keeps doing the same thing without success: otherwise known as "not happening".
And when we have no plan for Brexit, no change in leadership, no general election and absolutely no idea how to get agreement on a thing we haven’t been able to agree on for 1,000 years, a growing number of people will look about them and say: "Well, bugger me. What was the point of all this?"
There’s talk of renegotiation, guarantees, widdly bits and doodahs on the deal, Parliamentary process and amendments and a second referendum.
If you were a used car salesman and someone was having this kind of inter-family chaos on the forecourt, you wouldn’t drop your price. And nor will the EU.
It’s impossible to guarantee something in the future, doodahs diddle nobody, and if you threw an indecisive vote back to a public so indecisive they could only decide on 1 out of the last 3 governments, you would get, guess what, an indecisive result.
Now, everything staying pretty much the same is by definition what a Conservative is all about. But it’s the opposite of what Brexit is supposed to be, which is why a change is demanded.
You won’t get a Conservative to change – not their minds, not their shoes, not the country. That inescapable personality trait, combined with inbred laziness, is probably why David Cameron ditched his harness the morning after the referendum and stuck his head deep in a nosebag.
Labour LIKES changing things. Which is why you’ll never get Tories voting for a motion of no confidence that could get Labour in power.
But Article 50 has been activated. The date of March 29 has been set in stone as the point when EU law ceases to apply. Surely, some say, this means we are exiting without a deal under World Trade Organisation rules in just 10 weeks?
Well, no. Because Article 50 may be unilaterally revoked, or delayed with the agreement of the EU, which it has already offered.
‘No deal’ would be so economically disastrous that no PM would ever allow it to become their legacy and no party would survive the century of loathing it would cause. More importantly, there’s not a majority for it in Parliament or the country.
And also because things carved in stone are eminently smashable. Look, ye, upon Section 4 (a) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018:
Quite simply: a minister can rewrite the leaving date, without asking Parliament. Theresa has said she’ll never revoke Article 50 – she could, nevertheless, change the date.
If ‘no deal’ looks imminent, this is the only sensible option. WTO rules would require a hard border in Northern Ireland, 21% tariffs on food exports to the EU, and don’t cover financial services or air transport. Sorry, wingnuts, but WTO won’t happen even under a PM with their head screwed on against the thread.
All talk of deadlines is just that – a ploy to force things through a democratic bottleneck, when everyone at the table knew the target date was just a guideline.
But nothing is impossible. There are 3 fundamental problems with Brexit, and therefore 3 possible ways through it.
1. Get rid of Northern Ireland
It’s the political demands of this troublesome province which caused most of the Tory rebellions. The only way of fixing it is either a) come up with a solution for Northern Ireland’s relationship to the UK which has evaded our finest minds for centuries; or b) get rid of it.
The problem is Northern Ireland doesn’t want to be got rid of. The Republic of Ireland doesn’t want it back, either. And there are 1.8m British citizens living there who, if they decided not to start bombing stuff again, would have the right to move to the mainland.
We could always build them a city in David Cameron’s Oxfordshire garden, but the planning appeals would probably drag. In other words, we’re stuck with it.
2. Produce unicorn
The PM therefore must present a way of leaving the customs union and single market without the economy noticing, then take back control of our borders without building a wall along any of them, and finally limit immigration while not looking racist and letting plenty of migrants in for the economy’s sake.
A professor of astrophysics would have difficulty figuring that out; seeing as it’s Theresa May’s job for at least the next year, there’s more chance of Nigel Farage being voted Miss World.
3. Get a better deal
Theresa May has 21 days to come up with Plan B, which will almost certainly involve asking the used car salesman for a lower price. The Labour policy is also to renegotiate, promising a customs union if the EU will throw in a set of new mudflaps.
There is, however, an even better deal possible. This is one that includes 27 trade deals ready to go, zero tariffs, border co-operation, democratic involvement in the creation of rules, regulations and budgets, and 1/3 cashback on our membership fees.
It guarantees the supply of medicines, international police databases, farm subsidies, a happy Northern Ireland and that thing that Conservatives love best – continuity.
With the same PM, the same party of government, the same indecisive electorate and the same immutable economic needs, that deal is the best we can ever hope to get.
The change that is demanded, and which won’t be long now, is the point at which enough people realise the bleeding obvious.
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