Sunday, 17 Nov 2024

Brexit warning: EU told one last chance of deal – as UK dodge £60BN Covid bill

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Boris Johnson had hoped the outline of a post-Brexit free trade deal would be nailed down this month, but the EU’s refusal to first reach agreement on the more straightforward areas before tackling the thorniest issues is blamed for “paralysis”. Britain now wants both sides to get to work on the texts of agreements, ahead of the end of Brexit transition phase at the close of the year.

A UK Government source said: “Obviously everything needs to be up for discussion, but it makes no sense to have everything going at the speed of the most difficult issues.

“Now they need to adapt their approach to make sure talks throughout the summer don’t suffer from unnecessary roadblocks.”

Britain insists now that the EU’s epic budget negotiations are wrapped up there are “no excuses not to knuckle down” in pursuit of a Canada-style trade agreement.

A key sticking point are EU demands on rules governing “state aid” – the support the UK can give to its own industries. Britain regards Brussels’ position as “egregious” and says an independent country would never accept such strictures.

The UK Government source said: “What’s needed now is internal reflection on the EU side on whether what they’re asking us is consistent with our status as an independent country at the end of the year.

“If they do that and come to the correct conclusion, we’ll be able to move forward.”

Tory Brexiteers are happy for the talks to continue, confident that under UK negotiator David Frost there is no danger of Britain agreeing to the oversight of the European Court of Justice.

There is also relief in eurosceptic circles that the UK is out of the EU and will not have to make member state contributions to the €1.074trillion budget and €750 billion EU recovery fund agreed last week.

It is understood in Whitehall that if the UK had remained a member it would have been expected to make a contribution of around €60bn to the post-coronavrius recovery fund – although this could have been subject to the British rebate and the UK may have received funds from the scheme.

Former Brexit minister David Jones said: “I think we have had a lucky escape and got out of it just in time. I think it’s very fortunate.

‘I think even people who possibly were wondering if we were doing the right thing by leaving the EU will just look at what’s going to be happening as a consequence of Covid and realise that it would have been much worse for us if we had remained there. And of course, that is another reason why we simply have to get out by the end of this year.”

Estimates of how much it would cost to remain in the EU vary, but John Longworth, a former director-general of the British Chambers of Commerce, said: “Anybody calling for an extension to the transition period is out of their mind. 

Based on last week’s deal it would cost us over £17billion to stay in the ‘exclusive club’ for a further year – enough to employ 6,800,000 frontline nurses for a year, which strikes me as being a far sounder investment than paying to forego our national sovereignty and remain bound to the EU for another 12 months.”

Bob Lyddon of Lyddon Consulting Services calculated that on a gross basis – before rebates and spending in the UK is taken into account – Britain’s 12 percent share of the payments appropriation would have €173.6billion or €24.8billion per year.

Economist Julian Jessop said that if the UK did agree to an extension of the transition period, “each month of extension could cost around £1billion in additional UK contributions to the EU budget, or £12billion for a full year”.

He added: “If we were still a full member, our contributions would undoubtedly be higher. The EU is moving towards ever closer union, including a fiscal union, which is likely to mean that richer countries, including the UK, [would] be expected to increase their subsidies to poorer countries, mainly in Eastern Europe but also Portugal and Greece.”

Conservative MP Daniel Kawczynski said: “During the whole of my 48 years lifetime our island nation has been subjugated to an ongoing power grab from these ideological zealots in Brussels well no more. No more!

“I am so proud and humbled that we Britons have been the first to expose that the EU Emperor has no clothes and I am totally confident and excited others will follow.”

Brexiteer economist Patrick Minford said he was relieved to be outside of the EU budget process and was confident a trade deal can be agreed.

He said: “The EU would be mad not to do a deal with us… They’ve basically been trying it on.

“They don’t want us to leave because they sell us stuff at inflated prices and they control us, so why would they want us to leave – and we give them money.” 

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