So she lost.

But, as predicted, the margin was a little smaller than the first meaningful vote back in January.

And so the prime minister and her team may well now conclude there is merit in, believe it or not, trying again.

The president of the European Commission, Jean Claude Juncker, insisted 24 hours ago that “this is it” – there are no more concessions or reassurances to be given.

But if Theresa May survives the next few days and weeks, she’ll probably calculate that she may as well put the vote back to the Commons for a third time.

:: PM confirms MPs’ vote on no-deal

There is an EU summit next week – all the EU leaders around one table together.

It is the best forum – at the point of maximum pressure (just days ahead of Brexit day) – for Mrs May to extract one final concession from the EU, allowing her to put the vote back to MPs.

And sources on the EU side do expect her to go for what is being dubbed MV3 (meaningful vote 3).

“She’ll come knocking at the door once more, but our pockets are empty,” one said to me.

Her leverage, though, (to the extent that she had any) will go when MPs vote against no deal on Wednesday.

:: How did your MP vote and which ones changed their minds?

So the bigger question now (assuming she loses MV3 too) is what, if any, extension the EU might grant?

There will be no point in them agreeing to a short extension – to the end of June, for example – because that would not be enough time to achieve anything. Such an extension was only mooted to give her time to ratify the deal had it passed.

So the EU will consider a longer extension of at least six months – or perhaps years.

The assumption is that they will be minded to grant it. After all, would they want to be blamed for causing a no-deal rupture by preventing an extension?

But there has, hitherto, not been any discussion at “leader level” (among the EU member country governments) of a longer extension, so it’s hard to know precisely what they all really think about that.

:: MPs reject Theresa May’s Brexit deal again – what happens now?

Weighed against granting a longer extension are several considerations:

1. The UK will be bound to take part in the European Parliament elections in May. This could, as one good source said to me, result in a “bunch of Farages” in the chamber of the European Parliament.

2. Increasingly, you hear voices among the 27 saying “this has to end… and if it’s no deal, then okay, let’s do it… the uncertainty is hurting business… let’s just end it now”.

While it’s likely the 27 will grant a long extension, it’s not a foregone conclusion.

Parliament will vote on an extension on Thursday. Will they vote for a short one (but for what purpose?) or will they vote for a longer one?

Whatever they vote for, it’s not up to them. The say so and the duration is in the gift of the EU.

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