Monday, 27 May 2024

Netanyahu Fails to Form a Government, Leaving Israel as Divided as Ever

JERUSALEM — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel abandoned his latest attempt to form a government on Monday, clearing the way for his chief rival to take a shot but leaving a divided country no closer to knowing who its next leader would be.

It remained to be seen whether the move was the beginning of the end for Mr. Netanyahu, Israel’s longest serving prime minister, or just another twist in a political standoff that has paralyzed the government for six months.

President Reuven Rivlin said he would give Benny Gantz, the former army chief whose party won one more parliamentary seat than Mr. Netanyahu’s in last month’s election, the mandate to try to become the country’s next leader.

But Mr. Gantz, a political newcomer who has capitalized on pending corruption cases against Mr. Netanyahu, has no clear path to assembling the required 61-seat majority in Israel’s Parliament.

He has 28 days to try. If he fails, Israel could be forced into an unprecedented third election, a prospect few Israelis would relish.

Two days before his 28-day deadline was up, Mr. Netanyahu, 70, who has been prime minister since 2009, told Mr. Rivlin that he had been unable to put together a parliamentary majority.

Mr. Rivlin said he would give the mandate to Mr. Gantz, 60, “as soon as possible.”

“The time of spin is over, and it is now time for action,” Mr. Gantz’s Blue and White party said in a statement. “Blue and White is determined to form the liberal unity government, led by Benny Gantz, that the people of Israel voted for a month ago.”

Mr. Gantz had resisted entreaties from Mr. Netanyahu to join him in a unity government, saying that he would not serve under a prime minister facing indictment. That left open the possibility that Mr. Netanyahu might prevail upon a few centrist lawmakers to give him a majority.

They did not, and Mr. Gantz’s gamble has paid off, so far.

Now, he will get his chance to try to assemble a majority. Arguing that 80 percent of Israelis agree on 80 percent of the issues, he has promised to seek a broad government with conservative partners by working “from the center out.”

But achieving what Mr. Netanyahu could not would be quite a feat. Mr. Gantz would need to recruit defectors from the political right, perhaps from within Mr. Netanyahu’s Likud party, or persuade Avigdor Liberman, leader of the right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu party, to do what so far appears unthinkable: collaborate with Arab politicians.

Mr. Netanyahu, who remains prime minister until a new government is formed, is counting on Mr. Gantz to fail, forcing a new election.

In a video posted to his Twitter account on Monday, shortly after the end of the Sukkot holiday in Israel, Mr. Netanyahu said he had “worked relentlessly, in the open but also in secret, in an effort to form a broad national unity government” with Mr. Gantz.

“This is what the people want,” Mr. Netanyahu wrote. “This is also what Israel needs in the face of security challenges that are growing by the day, by the hour.”

He said he had made “every effort” to negotiate a unity government with Mr. Gantz, but “to my regret, time and time again, he simply refused.”

For Mr. Netanyahu, who in July surpassed Israel’s founding leader, David Ben-Gurion, to become its longest-serving prime minister, his failure to assemble a majority was a humbling and potentially career-ending blow.

The last time an Israeli politician beside him had the chance to form a government was in 2009, when Tzipi Livni, then the foreign minister, narrowly edged Mr. Netanyahu in an election. But she failed to muster a majority and Mr. Netanyahu succeeded, completing a comeback after having served a previous term as prime minister in the late 1990s.

Mr. Gantz, a career soldier making his first run for office, tied with Mr. Netanyahu in their first contest in April, but Mr. Netanyahu had more supporters in Parliament and was given the chance to form a government. He appeared well on his way to a fourth consecutive term only to be thwarted by a surprise defection by Mr. Liberman.

Rather than let Mr. Gantz be given a chance, Mr. Netanyahu orchestrated a second election, held on Sept. 17.

Mr. Gantz narrowly edged Mr. Netanyahu in that election, but Mr. Netanyahu’s coalition of right-wing and ultrareligious parties again came away with a larger bloc in Parliament than Mr. Gantz’s alliance of center-left parties. Once more, Mr. Netanyahu was handed the first attempt at forming a government.

Mr. Netanyahu may still have another path back to the premiership: If Mr. Gantz cannot form a government within his allotted time, the president can hand the task to Parliament, giving lawmakers an additional 21 days to come up with a candidate who can command a majority. Mr. Netanyahu may be hoping, at that point, that the public and political pressure to avoid a third election will persuade the half-dozen additional lawmakers whose support he needs to come to his side.

Analysts have also speculated that Mr. Netanyahu may prefer a third election, perhaps believing that the attorney general would ultimately drop the bribery indictment, the heaviest of three charges he is facing. Under such an outcome, Mr. Netanyahu could claim a degree of vindication and campaign while facing lesser charges of fraud and breach of trust, and insisting that they, too, would come to naught in court.

The gamesmanship between Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Gantz since the election last month has resembled a chess match in which Mr. Netanyahu’s position was weaker than after the April election but the conclusion was hardly foregone.

With neither man finding a politically palatable way of achieving a 61-seat majority, a unity government of one sort or another appeared unavoidable, and Mr. Rivlin urged both men to agree on one.

One major stumbling block, if they agreed to rotate the premiership, was the question of who would serve first and at what point Mr. Netanyahu would step aside if charged.

Mr. Netanyahu accepted a proposal suggested by Mr. Rivlin under which Mr. Netanyahu would serve as prime minister first, but if charged, would declare himself incapacitated while he sorted out his legal troubles. Mr. Gantz would then serve as acting prime minister with full powers.

Such an arrangement left many questions, including at what point Mr. Netanyahu would step aside, and would have required legal changes that could be challenged in court.

Moreover, Mr. Netanyahu has insisted that any unity government include his longstanding allies in the right-wing and religious parties. Mr. Gantz has demanded that Likud negotiate a unity government without its allied parties.

Mr. Netanyahu repeatedly and publicly chastised Mr. Gantz for refusing to negotiate with him on terms for building a grand coalition including both their parties. Mr. Gantz said the terms proposed by Mr. Netanyahu were impossible to accept.

Most recently, Mr. Netanyahu asserted that Mr. Gantz’s plan all along was to thwart any efforts to form a unity government and instead set up a minority government with the backing of Arab parties — an unlikely move that would be deeply unpopular with many Blue and White voters, as well as with many of the party’s lawmakers.

The rise of such a minority government would only be possible with the tacit cooperation of Avigdor Liberman, which Mr. Liberman has all but ruled out.

Critics said Mr. Netanyahu had been showing signs of panic. He pressed his right-wing and religious allies to sign multiple loyalty oaths. And he proposed a Likud party primary, but then abruptly canceled the idea after a popular younger rival, Gideon Saar, declared himself ready to challenge Mr. Netanyahu for the party leadership.

Mr. Gantz, meanwhile, has been calmly seeking to strengthen his leadership credentials, issuing prime ministerial-like statements in response to local and world events. He hosted the German ambassador to Israel, Dr. Susanne Wasum-Rainer, in his sukkah, the temporary hut or tabernacle that Jews construct for the Sukkot holiday, and said they discussed anti-Semitism and Germany’s decision to cease weapons sales to Turkey, for which he expressed gratitude.

Last week, Mr. Gantz requested, and was granted, a meeting with the military chief of staff to update himself on security developments in the region. That meeting was held with the approval of Mr. Netanyahu.

Still, Mr. Netanyahu has far from given up.

On Monday night he posted a photo of himself and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, thanked Mr. Putin for telephoning him with birthday greetings and said they had discussed the situation in Syria, among other things.

“It is still not too late,” he declared in his video. It would still be possible to form a unity government, he said, “if Gantz comes to his senses.”

“This has always been the solution, and this remains the solution,” he said.

David M. Halbfinger is the Jerusalem bureau chief, covering Israel, the occupied Palestinian territories and the Middle East. @halbfinger

Isabel Kershner, a correspondent in Jerusalem, has been reporting on Israeli and Palestinian politics since 1990. She is the author of “Barrier: The Seam of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict.” @IKershner Facebook

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