Saturday, 27 Apr 2024

UK growth to be cut in half as Brexit uncertainty bites Bank of England finds

Ongoing uncertainty about the Britain's future has seen businesses cut spending and looks set to see Britain's growth cut in half, the Bank of England has said.

The Bank now expects the economy to grow by a miserly 0.2% this year, down from almost 0.4% the year before.

"Growth in the UK economy has been volatile this year in part because of Brexit preparations," the Bank said in its November Monetary Policy Report.

"We expect growth this year to be roughly half that in 2018."

Things were worse when it came to business spending, with investment falling for five quarters in a row.

"Uncertainty about the outcome of Brexit helps explain why UK growth has slowed," the Bank said.

"Uncertainty encourages businesses to delay spending on things like new machinery.

"We think that uncertainty about Brexit is the main reason why  by companies has been falling."

Before the EU referendum, business investment was growing by around 5% a year.

But that wasn't the only thing holding the UK back.

"Spending by households has also slowed but less sharply. Household spending has been supported by high employment," the Bank said.

The Bank also pointed to a global slowdown as one of the brakes on the economy.

"Lower growth elsewhere has reduced the demand for the goods and services that the UK sells abroad," it said.

Brexit wasn't the only concern though.

Dr Kerstin Braun of trade finance firm Stenn Group, said: "Even if we avoid a Brexit crash out, or if Brexit is scrapped all together, the UK is slowly running out of gas, driven down by persistent uncertainty and the flagging global economy.

"European stocks might be up after some tariffs have been rolled back, but it will take time to undo the damage caused by the trade war.

"This limbo is starting to feel like ‘the new normal’ when it should only be temporary. UK businesses need to be able to withstand the burden of this longer wait."

However, there was some good news.

"With the risk of a no-deal Brexit falling recently, we expect the uncertainty facing households and businesses to fall," the Bank said.

 

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