NEW YORK (Reuters) – S&P 500 companies’ .SPX earnings are expected to decline in the fourth quarter from the year-earlier period, which could be a second straight quarterly profit fall for the group, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.

As of Tuesday, fourth-quarter earnings for the S&P 500 were expected to fall 0.1% from the year-earlier period, according to analysts’ forecasts compiled by Refinitiv.

The latest estimate for fourth-quarter earnings is down sharply from 11.5% growth projected for the period as of the start of the year and down from 4.1% growth projected for the quarter as of Oct 1.

Third-quarter earnings, with results in from almost all of the S&P 500 companies, are estimated to have declined 0.4% from a year ago, based on Refinitiv’s data.

Two straight quarters of year-over-year profit declines would mark an earnings recession. The last of those occurred from July 2015 through June 2016, which dovetailed with a broad run of stock market underperformance.

But the fourth-quarter number is likely to change once companies report actual results, since many companies tend to beat conservative profit expectations, making it possible that the fourth quarter will end with positive earnings growth.

Earnings have struggled this year after last year’s tax-fueled gains and as worries about the U.S.-China trade war have weighed on estimates, but many strategists think the third or fourth quarter will be the trough for the current cycle.

Economically sensitive companies – industrials .SPLRCI, energy .SPNY, consumer discretionary .SPLRCD and materials .SPLRCM – are forecast to have the biggest year-over-year fourth-quarter profit declines among sectors, while the heavily weighted technology sector .SPLRCT is expected to have just a 0.5% increase, based on the data.

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