Saturday, 28 Sep 2024

China awaits Trump’s response as it opens up financial sector

Xi Jinping, China’s president, had a message for his fellow G20 leaders at their summit in Osaka last week.

He told them that some developed countries were taking protectionist measures that were leading to trade conflicts and potential economic blockades.

He said these were the biggest potential cause of instability in the global economy.

“All this is destroying the global trade order,” Mr Xi added.

The Chinese president did not name names, but it does not take a genius to work out that he meant the US.

So some will have taken his comments as posturing ahead of the meeting he had with US President Donald Trump later at the summit in which they pledged to restart trade negotiations.

Today, though, China has put its money where its mouth is.

Li Keqiang, the Chinese premier, announced that the country will end ownership limits for foreign investors in its financial sector in 2020 – a year earlier than planned – as it makes “efforts to further open up the financial and other modern service industries”.

The move, which will remove caps on the shareholding that foreign investors may have in Chinese securities firms and life insurers, came as part of an announcement on a wider opening up of the Chinese economy.

Speaking at the Annual Meeting of the New Champions 2019 in the northeastern port city of Dalian, a meeting that has become known as the “Summer Davos”, Mr Li added: “China will unswervingly promote opening up on all fronts.

“Right now we need to let state-owned enterprises, privately-owned enterprises and foreign-invested companies, so long as they are registered in China, to be recognised as Chinese companies, all treated equally.”

Mr Li said this would include opening up its manufacturing sector, including the car-making industry, as well as supporting foreign investment in advanced manufacturing industries, including equipment manufacturing, electronic information and medicines.

Other areas where restrictions on market access will be removed include telecom services and transport.

China will hope the measures prove it is sincere about opening up its economy to outside investment.

One of the factors contributing to the current trade dispute between the US and China has been the latter’s insistence that foreign companies investing in the country must join forces with a local partner with whom they must share their technology and other trade secrets.

This has led to complaints of a ‘technology transfer’ that benefits Chinese companies at the expense of overseas rivals.

Just 40 sectors, down from 48 a year ago, will now be subject to foreign investment restrictions.

The opening up of China’s financial sector, in particular, is likely to be warmly welcomed.

Wall Street has long been lobbying for Beijing to open up its financial markets to wider foreign involvement.

To date, China has only been doing so gradually.

It changed the rules in late 2017 to allow foreign investors to raise their shareholding in brokerage joint ventures with domestic firms from 49% to 51%, something of which UBS, JP Morgan Chase, HSBC and Nomura have already taken advantage.

Morgan Stanley, according to a Reuters report last week, is likely to be next and Credit Suisse is likely to follow.

But the rule change announced on Tuesday opens up the possibility of such banks being able to take full control of such ventures as well as potentially opening up the market to other players.

Another US banking giant, Citi, may find this an attractive option.

It had a successful joint venture in the country, Citi Orient Securities, but told its joint venture partner in December last year that it intended to sell its shareholding in the business and seek a new partner prepared to give it majority ownership in a securities joint venture.

The big question is whether what Mr Li has announced today is more than just a symbolic gesture and whether Beijing can genuinely open up its financial markets quickly.

The authorities have been known to take anything between 18 months to two years in the past when awarding licences to brokerages.

Moreover, market participants will be keen to see the fine detail of the liberalisation proposals, such as whether Beijing seeks to make foreign-owned entities set aside greater amounts of capital than local players or whether it obliges them to have a certain proportion of locals on their board.

Yet there will be a strong incentive for China to genuinely open up its market wholeheartedly.

Doing so should generate more competition and increase the availability of financial services to Chinese businesses – something that ought to reinvigorate the country’s economy just as it is going through its slowest period for three decades.

Beijing can also point to some areas of the financial services industry where it has already permitted the involvement of wholly foreign-owned players: American Express won permission late last year to become the first foreign card operator to set up card-clearing services in the country while, earlier this year, the ratings agency S&P became the first foreign player in its field to be allowed to offer its services in the country without the involvement of a local partner.

This was a meaningful reform given Beijing’s previous unhappiness with S&P and its rival, Moody’s, after they downgraded China’s credit rating.

The other big question is how the Trump administration reacts.

While Mr Li’s announcement today may address some concerns about technology transfer and the theft of US intellectual property, the wider thrust of Mr Trump’s campaign has been to reduce America’s trade deficit with China and to encourage some American manufacturers to bring home activities that they have offshored to locations like China.

Supporting foreign investment in Chinese manufacturing, the White House may feel, will do nothing to bring more manufacturing jobs back to the US.

And that could prove problematic in so far as opening up China’s economy goes.

Many foreign investors may prefer to wait and see how talks between the US and China go – and whether they lead to a genuine trade deal – before risking their capital.

Others may also watch to see whether Beijing chooses to become more involved in the response to the unfolding crisis in Hong Kong.

To date, the Chinese government has tried not to get involved in the dispute, seeking to leave it to Hong Kong’s chief executive, Carrie Lam, to try and come to terms with protests that began in opposition to a law that would have allowed Hong Kongers to be extradited to mainland China.

The escalation in tensions this week may change that.

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