Tokyo assembly election in dead heat as PM Suga's LDP holds slight edge: Exit polls
TOKYO – The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Japan’s national ruling party but the opposition in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly, is likely to have wrested back the lead in a local election on Sunday (July 4), going by exit polls.
But this may not be enough to secure a majority in the 127-seat assembly, together with its coalition partner Komeito, in Japan’s most populous and prosperous prefecture.
Sunday’s election, which put the spotlight on Covid-19 measures and the looming Olympic Games in less than three weeks, is being closely watched, with local media framing it as a prelude to a general election that Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga must call by Oct 21.
The LDP had been the second-largest party in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly, after a shock loss to Tomin First (Tokyoites First) in 2017. Tomin First was founded by Governor Yuriko Koike, who continues to serve as special adviser.
Exit polls released after voting closed at 8pm (7pm Singapore time) showed the LDP and Tomin First neck-and-neck, with the LDP holding a razor’s edge lead in the race.
The Tokyo election is significant, as the Japanese capital accounts for 11.1 per cent of the country’s population and 19.5 per cent of gross domestic product. It is set to host the Olympics, which remains controversial as Covid-19 infections are again on the rebound in Tokyo.
Mr Suga, who has strongly backed the Olympics, lost three national by-elections in a single day in April, and the tight race might not give him the confidence boost that he was hoping for.
The Asahi daily reported, citing an unnamed Cabinet minister, that Mr Suga did not stump for any of the LDP candidates for the Tokyo assembly poll over concerns that “people would jeer him”, with support ratings having slumped.
Meanwhile, Ms Koike, who was hospitalised for a week due to severe fatigue, has toned down her backing for Tomin First candidates in what experts see as a bid to mend fences with the LDP.
All eyes in Nagatacho, Japan’s political nerve centre, are watching Ms Koike’s moves amid talk that she is trying to pave a return to national politics, four years after she broke away to found Tomin First and then its sister party Kibo No To (Party Of Hope). The Kibo No To is now a spent force.
In this election, Ms Koike has toned down her backing for Tomin First candidates, instead cryptically talking about an “all-Tokyo approach against Covid-19” and her support for “reform-minded candidates”.
Adding to talk on the grapevine are Ms Koike’s frequent meetings with LDP secretary-general Toshihiro Nikai, an influential kingmaker and political power broker.
There were 271 candidates vying for 127 seats in Sunday’s election.
Tomin First held 45 seats, while the LDP had 25 and Komeito 23 in the last assembly. The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), which is the main national opposition, held eight seats.
One wildcard was the Komeito, the LDP’s coalition partner in national politics, which had backed Tomin First in the 2017 election but banded with the LDP this time.
Vote counting for Sunday’s election was ongoing as at press time, but exit polls by broadcaster NHK show that the LDP is likely to win between 25 and 43 seats. Tomin First is likely to clinch between 20 and 35 seats. The LDP-Komeito bloc was unlikely to win a simple majority in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly.
Tomin First’s losses on Sunday will not affect Ms Koike’s standing as governor, for which she was re-elected last year for a four-year term ending 2024.
The CDP likely made gains, and is projected to win between 11 and 22 seats, while the Japanese Communist Party (JCP) is likely to win between 14 and 22 seats. The two parties had campaigned for the Olympics to be postponed or cancelled, and had also coordinated to field candidates to avoid a split vote.
Sophia University political scientist Koichi Nakano said, noting that pollsters had expected a more clear-cut LDP victory, that the LDP “seems to have failed to make the most of the opportunity of the falling star of Tomin First”.
“This was quite a confusing contest and it seems people had a hard time choosing between the LDP and Tomin First, which is like a Koike offshoot that she seems to have half-abandoned,” he said.
He does not, however, see a comeback by Ms Koike to national politics as realistic.
He said: “She may be somewhat more popular than Suga but she’s also tainted by Covid-19 policies and the decision to go ahead with the Olympics. It is a rather far-fetched idea that she will be accepted as LDP president and she will not want to go back to become a foot soldier again.”
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