Increasing unhappiness among Malay voters over the ruling Pakatan Harapan’s (PH) performance could play a crucial role in an upcoming by-election in the Malay-majority seat of Semenyih next month, where a victory for Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad’s party may help turn the tide and boost confidence in his coalition.

Malays comprise 69 per cent of the electorate in the quiet Selangor town of Semenyih, which is home to Britain’s University of Nottingham Malaysia campus, and the Broga Hill popular among hikers.

Located 20km south of the capital Kuala Lumpur, the area has undergone rapid growth over the past decade, and continues to see large-scale development, with more homes, international schools and shopping malls being built.

With a recent survey published on Jan 31 by pollster Ilham Centre and Penang Institute showing rising discontent among Malays over how the PH administration is handling Malay issues and Islam, the by-election will test whether Tun Dr Mahathir’s Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM) still has clout among Malays and can retain the state seat.

Almost 55 per cent of those surveyed felt PH is ignoring Malay Muslim rights – this may cost PH dearly.

Campaigning officially begins only today, but PH and its closest rival, Barisan Nasional (BN), have already been working the ground.

Former premier Najib Razak was mobbed by fans, mainly Malays, when he visited a Tesco hypermarket in Semenyih on Wednesday.

By-election facts

Nomination Day: Feb 16
Polling Day: March 2
Campaign Period: 14 days
Total registered voters: 54,503
Malay: 36,857 voters (69.2 per cent)
Chinese: 8,939 (16.8 per cent)
Indian: 7,062 (13.3 per cent)

MAY 2018 GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS

Pakatan Harapan (PH): 23,428 votes
Barisan Nasional (BN): 14,464 votes
Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS): 6,966 votes
Voter turnout: 87.9 per cent

•The by-election was called following the death of Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia’s Mr Bakhtiar Mohd Nor, who won the seat by nearly 9,000 votes in May. He died of a heart attack on Jan 11.

•Mr Bakhtiar’s son-in-law, Mr Mohd Aiman Zainali, 30, will run as the PH candidate. He is currently pursuing a PhD at University Teknologi Mara, Shah Alam.

•BN will field Umno grassroots leader Zakaria Hanafi, 57.

•Other candidates are Mr Nik Aziz Afiq Abdul, 25, of Parti Sosialis Malaysia and philanthropist and former policeman Kuan Chee Heng, 57, who is contesting as an independent.

The former president of Umno, which leads the BN pact, seems to be enjoying new-found popularity despite facing dozens of charges linked to graft and financial fraud after swopping his suit for a hoodie and attempting to win over working-class Malays with his slogan “Malu apa, bossku?” which means “Why the shame, boss?”

Najib appears to have thousands of Facebook followers, many of whom complain about the cost of living and say they regret voting for PH in the May general election, which the BN administration lost.

Many Malays also believe that the Chinese-dominated Democratic Action Party is controlling the government as one of the four parties in the PH coalition. The other two are Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) and Parti Amanah Negara.

Although PH has won four by-elections – three in Selangor and the other in Port Dickson, where PKR leader Anwar Ibrahim staged his political comeback – it lost the one held in Cameron Highlands in January to the incumbent BN candidate, who won by 3,238 votes.

It will not bode well for PH if it loses the Semenyih seat, located in its stronghold state of Selangor.

For now, the polls indicate that PH looks likely to retain Semenyih.

The Selangor government think-tank Institut Darul Ehsan (IDE) predicts that PH will win in Semenyih, although it found that 46 per cent of Malay voters there were dissatisfied with the state government.

IDE deputy chairman Mohammad Redzuan Othman said a survey it ran between Jan 30 and Feb 1 found that PH would retain 46 per cent of the vote in the by-election, while BN may get 37 per cent.

Still, BN could gain the edge now that it has an informal pact with the conservative Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) for PAS to stay out of the race, unlike last May, when votes were mainly split three ways.

PPBM’s Mr Bakthiar Mohd Nor won the seat with 23,428 votes. BN’s Datuk Johan Abdul Aziz garnered 14,464 and Mr Mad Shahmidur Mat Kosim (PAS) won 6,966 votes. If PAS supporters vote for BN this time, BN will need to sway only 2,000 more voters its way.

“PH is seen as having underperformed… and failing to fulfil promises made in their manifesto,” said analyst Awang Azman Awang Pawi of Universiti Malaya, who estimates support for PH among Malay voters in Semenyih at 53 per cent, while support for BN and PAS hovers around 47 per cent.

Analyst Amir Fareed Rahim of KRA political consultancy noted that the stakes are higher for Dr Mahathir’s PPBM than it is for Umno and PAS, as this is the first time the party is contesting a by-election. “A victory may help turn the tide for PPBM with regard to the Malay base and will help boost confidence in PH and its leaders among the wider electorates,” said Mr Amir.

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