SYDNEY – Two days before Australia’s election, a betting agency was so confident of the result that it began paying out more than A$1.3 million (S$1.2 million) to those who had bet on a victory for the Labor party.

The agency, Sportsbet, could be forgiven for its mistake.

Gamblers’ preferences are usually a good predictor of Australian election results – and the vast majority had tipped the ruling Coalition to lose. Meanwhile, opinion surveys, which are usually reliable in Australia, were unanimously pointing to a clear Labor victory.

Yet all proved to be wildly incorrect. As the Coalition’s stunning win became clear on Saturday (May 18) night, Sportsbet said in a joking tweet: “Who’s had a worse night? Us or the Labor party?”.

But there was one person in Australia who had never given up hope of a Coalition victory: the Prime Minister, Mr Scott Morrison.

His deputy Liberal leader, Mr Josh Frydenberg, revealed on Sunday that he received a text message from Mr Morrison on Friday night saying that he remained determined and “believed in miracles”.

Twenty-four hours later, a triumphant Mr Morrison, a devout evangelical Christian, stood before the nation to declare victory, describing his win as a “miracle”.

Yet there were actually several earthly explanations for Mr Morrison’s remarkable win.

First, the Coalition did spectacularly well in the state of Queensland, winning a likely 23 or 24 out of 30 available seats in the nation’s 151-member Lower House. The Coalition lost no seats and won two from Labor.

The Queensland result appeared to be boosted by the Coalition’s strong backing for Indian mining giant Adani’s controversial proposal to build a giant coal mine in the state’s centre.

Environmentalists and climate change campaigners oppose the mine, but supporters say it will boost jobs. Labor leader Bill Shorten struggled to adopt a clear position on the mine, reflecting his party’s concerns about both climate change and jobs in Queensland.

Another factor in the election result was concerns about Labor’s bold agenda, which included proposals to boost taxes for property investors and some retirees and to spend the extra revenue on health, education, childcare and tax cuts aimed at lower wage earners.

This was an ambitious plan but allowed the Coalition to run a scare campaign which painted Labor as “radical”.

A further factor was the intervention of mining tycoon Clive Palmer, who spent an estimated A$60 million to A$80 million on advertisements for his United Australia Party.

The party secured just 3.5 per cent of the national vote – at an estimated cost of about A$1,500 a vote – and failed to win a single seat. But its campaign heavily targeted Labor leader Bill Shorten and was seen by Labor as a reason for its disappointing result, particularly in Queensland.

Mr Palmer yesterday claimed credit for the Coalition’s success.

“Our ‘Shifty Shorten’ ads across Australia … have been very successful in shifting the Labor vote,” he told ABC News.

But the final reason for the Coalition’s success was Mr Morrison’s disciplined, energetic, relentless – and largely single-handed – campaign.

Aware that the Liberal party brand had been damaged by its recent toppling of two successive Prime Ministers, Mr Morrison downplayed the party and presented the election as a choice between himself and Mr Shorten. He also ran a tight script throughout the campaign, focusing entirely on the economy.

In contrast, Labor played up its wide-ranging plans but its overall message of a “fair go” for Australia was diluted.

Mr Morrison’s unexpected win now leaves him with strong authority over a party that has long been divided between its progressive and conservative wings.

He is likely to make few overall changes to the Coalition’s direction. He has committed to return the budget to surplus next year and to support struggling first homebuyers.

But his agenda for the next three years remains largely unknown. It is not yet clear whether he will unveil ambitious plans, or merely allow the nation to coast – but, following his solo campaign, the Coalition’s direction in the near term will be firmly in his hands.

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