4 candidates kick off race to succeed Japan PM Suga
TOKYO – Four veteran politicians from Japan’s ruling party filed their candidacies on Friday (Sept 17) in the race to succeed Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, with voting to take place on Sept 29.
Unlike last year’s streamlined Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) poll after Mr Shinzo Abe’s sudden resignation due to health reasons, the contest this year follows the traditional format where both Diet lawmakers and rank-and-file members across the 47 prefectural chapters can get their say.
Given the LDP’s majority in both chambers of the Diet as the ruling party, its leader will likely become the next prime minister.
The four candidates are Mr Taro Kono, 58, administrative reform and vaccination minister; Mr Fumio Kishida, 64, former foreign minister; Ms Sanae Takaichi, 60, former internal affairs and communications minister; and Ms Seiko Noda, 61, LDP executive acting secretary-general.
The stakes are high in this election to pick the LDP’s leader for the next three years, as a general election must be held by November amid waning trust in the party leadership over its Covid-19 response.
The reform-minded Mr Kono will easily be the shoo-in if members of the public can get their say at the Sept 29 poll, as he routinely tops media surveys of their choice for the next prime minister.
Yet, experts warn that the outcome is not that clear-cut within the LDP given the ongoing proxy struggles for influence and backroom wheeling and dealing.
What will concern Mr Kono – and give hope to the other contenders – is that a non-binding survey of LDP lawmakers by the Yomiuri Shimbun on Friday showed Mr Kono and Mr Kishida in a dead heat, with Ms Takaichi close behind out of the six in 10 who have decided whom to vote for.
The remaining four in 10 have not yet decided how to cast their votes.
There are 766 votes at stake in the Sept 29 election – half from the 383 Diet lawmakers and half divided among the 47 prefecture chapters.
Unless a candidate secures at least 50 per cent of the vote, the poll will go into a run-off contest between the top two vote-getters.
In the second round, parliamentarian votes will carry more weight as each of the 383 lawmakers will get one ballot, while the 47 prefecture chapters will each get one vote, for a total of 430 votes at stake.
There is precedent in how in 2012, Mr Abe had lost the first round to popular former defence minister Shigeru Ishiba, but clinched the second round in the one-to-one battle.
What is different this year is that aside from the faction headed by Mr Kishida, with 46 members, the other major LDP groupings have allowed their members to vote for their preferred candidate instead of along faction lines as per tradition.
Still, the factions have given clear “recommendations”. Mr Abe, who retains huge influence in the party, on Thursday openly endorsed Ms Takaichi for her “concrete policies” with a strong national outlook that has “captured the world’s attention”.
He is the de facto leader of the Hosoda faction – the LDP’s largest with 96 lawmakers – which has recommended either Ms Takaichi or Mr Kishida.
Mr Kono belongs to a faction led by Finance Minister Taro Aso, 80, an ally of Mr Abe, but has not won unequivocal support for his candidacy. The Aso faction has recommended either Mr Kono or Mr Kishida.
LDP lawmaker Masaaki Taira, 54, of a faction led by Mr Ishiba who has endorsed Mr Kono, told Bloomberg News: “Chaos is good.”
He added: “A chaotic leadership election means the new administration won’t carry on with the previous government’s policies, and must put together its own package. It means progress.”
The four candidates will deliver their policy speeches on Friday afternoon before they hold a joint press conference. They will have a policy debate at the Japan National Press Club on Saturday.
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