It is the ugliest word coined in recent years and represents a wearying head-wreck which has sickened people across 28 nations and beyond. But most Irish people still get the reality that Brexit is about the wages, the mortgage, the kids’ shoes and all of the rest.
Many Irish people talk about it with a surprising level of knowledge for something so dreary and technical. All of us are trying to figure out where – if anywhere – this dreadful thing is going to land.
So, let’s stand back and try once again – and answer seven key questions as seven weeks stand between us and B-Day on March 29.
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1. Where does the European Union stand right now?
It is sticking to the EU-UK divorce deal of November 25. It is prepared to offer “explanations” to help UK parliament ratification – but insists the deal itself is closed. It is obliged, however, to admit the Irish Border must have some form of controls if there’s a no-deal Brexit.
It is low on patience with UK Prime Minister Theresa May, who last week advised her own MPs to effectively vote against the draft deal. It will stand by Ireland – but that does not mean all is safe for this country as the threat of a no-deal Brexit grows.
The EU insists that the deal “remains the best and only way to ensure an orderly withdrawal”. German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said yesterday that “if the British want to avoid a disorderly Brexit, our offer is on the table”.
2. Where is UK government on all this?
Mrs May, despite her crushing defeat on January 15, still believes UK parliament ratification can happen. But last week she successfully advised her own party’s eurosceptics and the DUP to vote for an EU-UK divorce deal without the Border backstop.
Mrs May still, formally at least, refuses a deadline extension and keeps the dangerous threat of a no-deal Brexit to push her case. For her, it is all about trying to keep a semblance of unity in her riven cabinet and party and somehow placate the DUP – rather than anything else.
The prime minister continues to rule out a second referendum, insisting that the June 2016 result, which saw UK voters opt by 52pc to 48pc to quit the EU, must be implemented. A second referendum cannot be ruled out but it remains some distance away even as a likely option. A general election, with a Brexit theme, could happen sooner.
Mrs May is back in Europe this week. “I am now confident there is a route that can secure a majority in the House of Commons for leaving the EU with a deal,” she wrote in a British Sunday newspaper yesterday.
“When I return to Brussels I will be battling for Britain and Northern Ireland, I will be armed with a fresh mandate, new ideas and a renewed determination to agree a pragmatic solution,” she added airily.
Expect a continued large ‘Non’ to come her way, sending her back to Westminster to think again.
3. And the UK Labour Party and/or the Scottish National Party?
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is still pushing against the odds for a general election. He is demanding an end to a no-deal Brexit as the price of talking about co-operation with Mrs May. But he remains under serious internal pressure to back a second referendum.
A change in Labour’s approach could really unlock this one and deliver a good outcome for Ireland. But there is no tradition of such levels of cross-party co-operation in Britain and Mr Corbyn is himself no fan of the European Union.
There are 35 SNP MPs who could also help shift things in a positive direction. But they are playing for a new referendum on an independent Scotland within the EU.
They are also miffed that Scotland did not get the special Brexit status accorded Northern Ireland. We can expect no joy there either.
4. So what about the Irish Government?
The pressure is increasing and continued anti-Irish propaganda in some sections of UK politics and media will heighten this. It is still hoping that UK MPs might somehow ratify the EU-UK deal which guarantees special status for the North and ongoing UK trade.
Failing that, it is still insisting that, whatever happens, the Border backstop must stand.
Otherwise it is still hoping enough UK MPs will back a soft Brexit.
Taoiseach Leo Varadkar is due back in Brussels on Wednesday and is still trying to shore up Irish-EU support. Dublin has really managed well so far.
But after months of paralysis, this one appears to be slipping towards a very dangerous point with a no-deal Brexit an increasing risk.
Pressure will build and, as Foreign Affairs Minister Simon Coveney was overheard to say, it could be the Irish Government obliged to bring back the Border if there is a no-deal outcome.
This one is not of Ireland’s making – but it could backfire badly on Leo Varadkar and company.
5. And so what are the next moves?
Theresa May goes back to the EU with the latest proposals. This may involve a compromise plan cooked up by a former Tory minister called Christopher Malthouse, known to his buddies as Kit.
This is mainly focused on using technology to avoid Border controls in Ireland. But that suggestion has already been junked by the EU for the good reason that the necessary technology is not in existence as of yet.
The next date with Brexit fate at Westminster is fixed for Wednesday of next week. Unless something unforeseen happens, it will likely involve more fact-finding MP votes.
It might even lead to a vote obliging Mrs May to formally ask for a Brexit extension which requires unanimous backing of the other 27 EU states. Listen for that can beating its way down the road again.
6. Will Brexit be extended beyond the March 29 deadline?
That is looking increasingly likely for a number of reasons. But even that brings complications and problems – not least the timing and organisation of European Parliament elections in late May. This can be overcome if there is political will.
The bigger impediment is a view in Europe that the UK would need a plan to justify a deadline extension. If it’s more of the same, the view might be that the worst should be done sooner rather later.
The length of any such extension and how and when it would be granted could become a row within a row.
7. Are we still talking about the risk of a no-deal Brexit?
Sadly, yes. You will hear much more talk about this in the coming days as a high-powered EU Commission delegation is due in Dublin to meet the Irish Government about how to manage such an outcome.
The tough reality is that – if nothing else is put in place – a no-deal crash is where this one is headed.
Source: Read Full Article
Home » Analysis & Comment » With only seven weeks left to 'B-Day', here are the seven key questions that have yet to be answered
With only seven weeks left to 'B-Day', here are the seven key questions that have yet to be answered
It is the ugliest word coined in recent years and represents a wearying head-wreck which has sickened people across 28 nations and beyond. But most Irish people still get the reality that Brexit is about the wages, the mortgage, the kids’ shoes and all of the rest.
Many Irish people talk about it with a surprising level of knowledge for something so dreary and technical. All of us are trying to figure out where – if anywhere – this dreadful thing is going to land.
So, let’s stand back and try once again – and answer seven key questions as seven weeks stand between us and B-Day on March 29.
Please sign in or register with Independent.ie for free access to this article.
Sign In
New to Independent.ie? Sign up
1. Where does the European Union stand right now?
It is sticking to the EU-UK divorce deal of November 25. It is prepared to offer “explanations” to help UK parliament ratification – but insists the deal itself is closed. It is obliged, however, to admit the Irish Border must have some form of controls if there’s a no-deal Brexit.
It is low on patience with UK Prime Minister Theresa May, who last week advised her own MPs to effectively vote against the draft deal. It will stand by Ireland – but that does not mean all is safe for this country as the threat of a no-deal Brexit grows.
The EU insists that the deal “remains the best and only way to ensure an orderly withdrawal”. German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said yesterday that “if the British want to avoid a disorderly Brexit, our offer is on the table”.
2. Where is UK government on all this?
Mrs May, despite her crushing defeat on January 15, still believes UK parliament ratification can happen. But last week she successfully advised her own party’s eurosceptics and the DUP to vote for an EU-UK divorce deal without the Border backstop.
Mrs May still, formally at least, refuses a deadline extension and keeps the dangerous threat of a no-deal Brexit to push her case. For her, it is all about trying to keep a semblance of unity in her riven cabinet and party and somehow placate the DUP – rather than anything else.
The prime minister continues to rule out a second referendum, insisting that the June 2016 result, which saw UK voters opt by 52pc to 48pc to quit the EU, must be implemented. A second referendum cannot be ruled out but it remains some distance away even as a likely option. A general election, with a Brexit theme, could happen sooner.
Mrs May is back in Europe this week. “I am now confident there is a route that can secure a majority in the House of Commons for leaving the EU with a deal,” she wrote in a British Sunday newspaper yesterday.
“When I return to Brussels I will be battling for Britain and Northern Ireland, I will be armed with a fresh mandate, new ideas and a renewed determination to agree a pragmatic solution,” she added airily.
Expect a continued large ‘Non’ to come her way, sending her back to Westminster to think again.
3. And the UK Labour Party and/or the Scottish National Party?
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is still pushing against the odds for a general election. He is demanding an end to a no-deal Brexit as the price of talking about co-operation with Mrs May. But he remains under serious internal pressure to back a second referendum.
A change in Labour’s approach could really unlock this one and deliver a good outcome for Ireland. But there is no tradition of such levels of cross-party co-operation in Britain and Mr Corbyn is himself no fan of the European Union.
There are 35 SNP MPs who could also help shift things in a positive direction. But they are playing for a new referendum on an independent Scotland within the EU.
They are also miffed that Scotland did not get the special Brexit status accorded Northern Ireland. We can expect no joy there either.
4. So what about the Irish Government?
The pressure is increasing and continued anti-Irish propaganda in some sections of UK politics and media will heighten this. It is still hoping that UK MPs might somehow ratify the EU-UK deal which guarantees special status for the North and ongoing UK trade.
Failing that, it is still insisting that, whatever happens, the Border backstop must stand.
Otherwise it is still hoping enough UK MPs will back a soft Brexit.
Taoiseach Leo Varadkar is due back in Brussels on Wednesday and is still trying to shore up Irish-EU support. Dublin has really managed well so far.
But after months of paralysis, this one appears to be slipping towards a very dangerous point with a no-deal Brexit an increasing risk.
Pressure will build and, as Foreign Affairs Minister Simon Coveney was overheard to say, it could be the Irish Government obliged to bring back the Border if there is a no-deal outcome.
This one is not of Ireland’s making – but it could backfire badly on Leo Varadkar and company.
5. And so what are the next moves?
Theresa May goes back to the EU with the latest proposals. This may involve a compromise plan cooked up by a former Tory minister called Christopher Malthouse, known to his buddies as Kit.
This is mainly focused on using technology to avoid Border controls in Ireland. But that suggestion has already been junked by the EU for the good reason that the necessary technology is not in existence as of yet.
The next date with Brexit fate at Westminster is fixed for Wednesday of next week. Unless something unforeseen happens, it will likely involve more fact-finding MP votes.
It might even lead to a vote obliging Mrs May to formally ask for a Brexit extension which requires unanimous backing of the other 27 EU states. Listen for that can beating its way down the road again.
6. Will Brexit be extended beyond the March 29 deadline?
That is looking increasingly likely for a number of reasons. But even that brings complications and problems – not least the timing and organisation of European Parliament elections in late May. This can be overcome if there is political will.
The bigger impediment is a view in Europe that the UK would need a plan to justify a deadline extension. If it’s more of the same, the view might be that the worst should be done sooner rather later.
The length of any such extension and how and when it would be granted could become a row within a row.
7. Are we still talking about the risk of a no-deal Brexit?
Sadly, yes. You will hear much more talk about this in the coming days as a high-powered EU Commission delegation is due in Dublin to meet the Irish Government about how to manage such an outcome.
The tough reality is that – if nothing else is put in place – a no-deal crash is where this one is headed.
Source: Read Full Article