President Trump and his followers delight in his image as a disrupter — a dauntless fighter raring to take on entrenched political interests and sacred cows. But when it comes to addressing America’s gun problem, Mr. Trump has proved both conventional and weak. As the shock fades of this month's back-to-back massacres in Texas and Ohio, he is poised to disappoint yet again.

On Tuesday, The Atlantic reported that Mr. Trump had assured Wayne LaPierre, the chief executive of the National Rifle Association, that he is no longer considering universal background checks. Mr. LaPierre subsequently tweeted praise for Mr. Trump, who he said “supports our right to keep and bear arms.”

By now, the president’s response to gun violence is familiar: In the first raw days after a mass shooting, he answers the public outcry with a pledge to muscle timid lawmakers into action. Following the Parkland shooting last year, Mr. Trump started a brief, high-profile push for “comprehensive” reform, hosting a televised meeting with a bipartisan coterie of lawmakers in which he publicly mocked members of his party for being “afraid of the N.R.A.” and touted his independence from the gun lobby. “They have great power over you people,” he said. “They have less power over me.”

Well, unless you count the $30 million the N.R.A. donated to Mr. Trump’s 2016 campaign, making the group his largest single contributor. But why quibble? For whatever reason, Mr. Trump soon abandoned his safety effort.

In response to this month’s shootings, Mr. Trump promptly vowed to pursue “background checks like we’ve never had before,” noting, correctly, that “there is a great appetite” for closing existing loopholes. (More than 90 percent of all voters support universal background checks.) Asserting that he enjoys “greater influence now over the Senate and over the House,” he expressed confidence that, this time, he could persuade lawmakers “to do things they don’t want to do.” He boasted, “There’s never been a president like President Trump.”

Even as Mr. Trump was touting his specialness, the N.R.A. was whispering in his ear, warning of the political Armageddon that would befall him if he crossed Second Amendment enthusiasts, even on something with such broad support as background checks. In recent weeks, the president has had multiple phone conversations with Mr. LaPierre, including while the president was on vacation at his New Jersey golf resort last week.

Right on schedule, Mr. Trump’s knees have buckled and his resolute talk has devolved into a series of (slightly garbled) bumper-sticker clichés on the theme of, “It’s people who pull the trigger, not the gun that pulls the trigger.” On his way back to Washington on Sunday, he stressed that he was “very, very concerned with the Second Amendment, more so than most presidents,” and he helpfully offered, “People don’t realize we have very strong background checks right now.” Leaning on one of the gun lobby’s favorite talking points, he said that this is “a very, very big mental health problem.”

Yes, it is — if you consider chronic political cowardice to be a mental health problem.

Now would be a particularly pathetic moment for Mr. Trump to capitulate. For all its vaunted political clout, the N.R.A. is in crisis — embroiled in legal troubles, rent by leadership squabbles and flirting with financial ruin. The president has privately voiced doubts that the group will be in a position to be a serious player in the 2020 election. What better time for him to exert his independence — to set himself apart from the political wimps?

Some White House aides have insisted that Mr. Trump is not waffling, that this is all part of a grand negotiating strategy and that he will, in fact, renew his legislative push when Congress returns from recess next month. Others have acknowledged that the president, not known for his long attention span, has lost patience and interest in the entire topic. As one told The Daily Beast, “He’s started to moved on.”

If the president retreats, again, gun safety advocates cannot be surprised. As the Senate minority leader, Chuck Schumer, observed of Mr. Trump’s cooling, “We’ve seen this movie before.”

Americans have indeed seen this tragedy far too many times — and are on track to see it many more. Mr. Trump was spot on with his observation that Republican lawmakers are terrified of the gun lobby, to the point of consistently prioritizing its desires over those of their voters, not to mention the good of the nation. The big question now is whether the president has what it takes to show leadership. For anything meaningful to get done, he will need to stop equivocating and flip-flopping and make clear that he expects lawmakers to meet the moment — or else.

It would be a welcome surprise if this version of the movie had a twist ending with Mr. Trump emerging as the brave hero facing down the extremist forces aligned against modest, popular reform.

But the viewing public probably shouldn’t hold its breath.

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