Friday, 22 Nov 2024

Opinion | The Year in Charts

No denying, 2019 was a Year of Trump. His outsize personality, capricious decision making and tumultuous management style consistently put him center stage. The year’s news was capped by Mr. Trump’s becoming only the third president in history to be impeached by the House of Representatives. Alas, Ukraine and impeachment don’t lend themselves to charts, but much of the rest of Mr. Trump’s eventful year does.

Soaring Output of Rage and Self-Flattery

How the number of Trump tweets multiplied in 2019! The pace of the president’s tweets — invariably his favorite means of communication — accelerated sharply as he came under siege following the release of the Mueller report and the opening of the impeachment investigation. From a comparatively sluggish pace of six tweets a day early in Mr. Trump’s presidency, his Twitter finger became itchier and itchier, and is on track to reach a high of 40 per day just this month. His daily record: 123 — including 58 in a single hour — on Dec. 12, one day before the House voted for impeachment. All told, Mr. Trump’s more than 13,000 presidential tweets include more words than James Joyce wrote in “Ulysses.” More than half of the president’s tweets have been attacks, while about 2,000 have been praise for himself.

Average number of Trump’s

tweets per day, by month

40 TWEETS

DAILY IN DEC.

Dec. 18: Trump is impeached

30

Sept. 18: Partial transcript

of Trump Ukraine call released

April 18: Redacted

version of Mueller

report is released

20

10

2017

2018

2019

40

TWEETS

DAILY

IN DEC.

Average number

of Trump’s tweets

per day, by month

Dec. 18: Trump is impeached

30

Sept. 18: Partial transcript

of Trump Ukraine call released

April 18: Redacted

version of Mueller

report is released

20

10

2017

2018

2019

Source: Trumptwitterarchive.org; includes tweets and retweets; tally is from Jan. 20, 2017, through Dec. 27.

And the Lies Just Pile Up

Throughout Mr. Trump’s career, veracity has never been his long suit. He has lied routinely almost from the start of the presidency, and — as with his tweets — the pace of his lies has accelerated as his difficulties have mounted. In the month before the midterm elections in 2018, he lied an average of 39 times per day. And almost as much in October of this year when his phone call with the president of Ukraine burst into the news. All told, as of mid-December, he had lied 15,413 times since becoming president, according to the Washington Post Fact Checker. Of particular note are his “Bottomless Pinocchios,” falsehoods that he has repeated at least 20 times. He has earned 30 of those, with one lie — that the economy today is the best in history — having been repeated 242 times.

Number of Trump’s false or misleading

claims per month

October: month before

the midterm elections

Sept. 18:

Ttranscript

of Ukraine

call released

1,000

750

500

261

through

Dec. 10

250

2017

2019

2018

Total for year:

1,999

Total for year:

5,689

Total as of Dec. 10: 7,725

At 261 lies from Dec. 1 to

10, he was on pace for

about 800 for the month.

October: month

before the

midterm elections

Number of Trump’s

false or misleading

claims per month

1,000

Sept. 18:

Partial transcript

of Trump Ukraine

call released

750

500

261

through

Dec. 10

250

2017

2019

2018

Total for year:

1,999

Total for year:

5,689

Total for year as of Dec. 10: 7,725

At 261 lies from Dec. 1 to 10, he was

on pace for about 800 for the month.

Source: The Washington Post

Three Years of Trump Disapproval

His appalling conduct in office has earned him the distinction of being the first president in modern history to have never achieved an approval rating above 50 percent in a Gallup poll. That’s particularly remarkable given the reasonably strong performance of the American economy. Interestingly, Mr. Trump’s favorability grade has stayed within a remarkably narrow band, a possible consequence of the deep polarization of the American electorate. Will that challenge him in his re-election bid? The two most recent incumbents approached decision day with approval ratings loitering below 50 percent. But neither had been so unpopular for so long, and all were more popular on Election Day than Mr. Trump is now.

Presidential approval ratings through

first three years in office

Clinton

Bush II

Obama

Trump

75%

50

Avg.: 48

Avg.: 66

Avg.: 50

Avg.: 40

25

1994

’96

2002

’04

’10

’12

’18

’20

Presidential approval ratings through first three years in office

Clinton

Bush II

Obama

Trump

75%

50

Average: 48

Average: 66

Average: 50

Average: 40

25

1994

’96

2002

’04

’10

’12

’18

’20

Source: Gallup; Trump approval through Dec. 15

Tariffs Take Their Toll

As the 2020 election came into view, Mr. Trump appeared to be trying to wind down his trade war. He accepted changes demanded by House Democrats to win passage of his new agreement with Mexico and Canada. He announced a “phase 1” deal with China that allowed him to back off a threat to impose still more tariffs. And he retreated from a threat to add tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Brazil. But much damage was done to consumers. Since the trade war started in early 2018, the prices of tariff-related goods rose by 3 percent, while the prices of other goods (excluding food and energy) have been unchanged.

Core goods consumer price index

TARIFFS

IN EFFECT

103

Tariff-

related

goods

102

101

FEB. 2018 = 100

Core

goods

excluding

tariffs

99

98

2016

’17

’18

’19

Core goods consumer price index

TARIFFS IN EFFECT

103

Tariff-related goods

102

101

Core goods

excluding tariffs

FEB. 2018 = 100

99

98

2016

’17

’18

’19

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Core goods excludes food and energy; tariff-related goods prices includes laundry equipment and other appliances, furniture and bedding, housekeeping supplies, window and floor coverings, auto parts and bicycles.

Welcome to the Manufacturing Recession

Consumers are not the only group to have been hurt by the trade war; the manufacturing sector was pushed into recession. The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index has now been below 50 (the neutral level) for four months, in large part because of slowing global trade. That has dented business confidence and for a time seemed likely to drag down the broader economy. While those fears have ebbed, the number of factory jobs is barely growing and has contracted in some of the key 2020 swing states. Through November, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania had lost manufacturing jobs this year.

The I.S.M. Index: A key indicator

of manufacturing activity

STEEL AND

ALUMINUM

TARIFFS IN

EFFECT

60

55

EXPANSION

50

CONTRACTION

48.1

45

40

35

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

The I.S.M. Index: A key indicator

of manufacturing activity

STEEL AND ALUMINUM

TARIFFS IN EFFECT

60

55

EXPANSION

50

48.1

CONTRACTION

45

40

35

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Source: Institute for Supply Management

Business Leaders Are Not Happy

Interestingly, while consumer confidence remained strong in the face of the trade war and the resulting economic slowdown, business confidence was shaken. After rising with Mr. Trump’s election, optimism among chief executives peaked early in his tenure and has dropped by 50 percent since then. That has had noticeable economic consequences: Investment, which grew smartly following the Trump tax cuts, began to slow and even turned negative in the second and third quarters of this year. With that slippage, investment has now grown more slowly under President Trump than it did under President Barack Obama after the recession hit bottom.

Percent change

in confidence

since 2015

TRUMP IN OFFICE

Consumer

confidence

+20%

0

–20%

C.E.O. confidence

–40%

2016

2017

2018

2019

Percent change in

confidence since 2015

TRUMP IN OFFICE

Consumer confidence

+20%

0

–20%

C.E.O. confidence

–40%

2016

2017

2018

2019

Source: Conference Board; C.E.O. figures reported through third quarter; consumer figures are October and November average.

Still Not Besting Obama in Job Growth

The Great American Jobs Machine marched on in 2019, with an average of 180,000 jobs a month added (through November). And the unemployment rate dropped to 3.5 percent, the lowest since December 1969. But a few inconvenient facts lie behind those shiny statistics. For one thing, average monthly job growth during Mr. Trump’s 34 months in office (193,000) was less than the 227,000 jobs added monthly during the last 34 months of Mr. Obama’s tenure. For another, job growth was materially slower this year in Ohio and Michigan than it was nationally, and in three others — Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Minnesota — the unemployment rate also rose. A key question: Will these heavily trade-war-related trends reverse before the presidential election?

Monthly job growth: Obama’s last 34 months

vs. Trump’s first 34 months (in thousands)

OBAMA

MONTHLY

AVERAGE:

227

300

TRUMP:

193

200

100

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Monthly job growth: Obama’s last 34 months vs. Trump’s first 34 months (in thousands)

OBAMA

MONTHLY

AVERAGE:

227

300

TRUMP:

193

200

100

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Remaking the Courts With McConnell

One of Mr. Trump’s most significant and lasting “accomplishments” may be one of his least noticed ones: transforming the federal judiciary. That was made possible by the Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell, who refused to confirm many of Mr. Obama’s late appointments, changed the threshold for confirmation to 51 votes (thereby eliminating filibusters) and reduced the time allowed to debate each nominee to speed the process. The consequence: 187 judicial confirmations, the most of any president since before Ronald Reagan. Of particular significance were Mr. Trump’s 50 appointments to the appellate courts; 28 percent of all of those judges — the last stop before the Supreme Court — have been appointed by Mr. Trump.

Court appointments as of Dec. 20

of each president’s third year in office

APPELLATE

COURTS

ALL OTHER

COURTS

TOTAL

50

137

Trump

187

30

139

Bush II

169

28

138

Clinton

166

31

97

Bush I

128

25

99

Obama

124

23

99

Reagan

122

Court appointments as of Dec. 20 of each president’s third year in office

TOTAL

APPELLATE COURTS

ALL OTHER COURTS

Trump

187

50

137

Bush II

169

30

139

Clinton

166

28

138

Bush I

128

31

97

Obama

124

25

99

Reagan

122

23

99

Source: Heritage Foundation

The Wall That Isn’t

No, the border wall is not being built. Out of the 1,954-mile-long border wall with Mexico, Mr. Trump has replaced only 96 miles of existing barriers with sturdier ones and has started building just eight miles of entirely new wall, only 32 feet of which have been completed. At best, the administration hopes to complete 165 miles of truly new wall next year. So unhappy was Mr. Trump at this lack of progress that in November, he turned over responsibility for building the wall to his son-in-law, Jared Kushner. Nonetheless, Mr. Trump has falsely claimed 235 times that “the wall is being built.”

The southern border and its barriers, in miles

1,954

Length of U.S.-Mexico border

654

Existing

barriers

96

Replacement installed

1,000

8

New wall started

Length of Trump’s

proposed wall

The southern border and its barriers, in miles

1,954

Length of U.S.-Mexico border

654

Existing barriers

96

Replacement installed

8

1,000

Length of Trump’s proposed wall

New wall started

Sources: U.S. Customs and Border Protection; New York Times reporting

Harrowing Rise in the Deficit

The party that used to pride itself on fiscal responsibility (the Republicans) has thoroughly become the party of fiscal irresponsibility (aided and abetted at times by the Democrats). Mr. Trump’s signature tax cut in 2017 added $3.1 trillion to the deficit over a decade, assuming extension of all provisions. This year he acquiesced to two budget deals — laced with extraneous spending and special-interest tax breaks — that will add another $2.2 trillion to the deficit over the decade. All told, measures passed under Mr. Trump’s watch caused the annual deficit to more than double; it will exceed $1 trillion in the current fiscal year.

Deficits absent

the new laws

Added to deficits

by new laws (in billions)

2017

tax law

2018

budget

deal

Other

laws

2019

$428 billion

228

188

140

Total deficit: $984

Two 2019

budget deals

2020

$473 billion

272

81

138

85

$1.05 trillion

292

35

165

71

2021

$504 billion

$1.07 trillion

Deficits absent the new laws

Added to deficits by new laws (in billions)

2017

tax law

2018

budget deal

Other

laws

Total

deficits

2019

$428 billion

$984

228

188

140

Two 2019

budget deals

$1.05

trillion

2020

$473 billion

272

81

138

85

$1.07

trillion

2021

$504 billion

292

35

165

71

Sources: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget; Congressional Budget Office. Fiscal years; other laws include legislation passed in 2015 and later.

Graphics by Bill Marsh.

Steven Rattner, a contributing opinion writer, is chairman and chief executive of Willett Advisors LLC, which invests the personal and philanthropic assets of Michael R. Bloomberg. He was a counselor to the Treasury secretary in the Obama administration. For latest updates and posts, please visit stevenrattner.com and follow me on Twitter (@SteveRattner) and Facebook.

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