Home » Analysis & Comment » Opinion | Graphics: An Excitingly Simple Solution to Youth Turnout, for the Primaries and Beyond
Opinion | Graphics: An Excitingly Simple Solution to Youth Turnout, for the Primaries and Beyond
06/26/2019
A striking feature of last year’s midterm elections was the historically high turnout. Still, only 31 percent of eligible young people cast a ballot — far lower than other age groups, even though millennials are the largest demographic in the country and much of Gen Z is now voting age.
Our research suggests a relatively easy fix: what’s known as same-day registration — allowing for voting and registering on voting days. Drawing on data from the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey Voter Supplement, we compared similar individuals in states with and without same-day registration laws, and also compared states before and after such laws went into effect.
We found that letting people register and vote on the same day increases turnout among 18- to 24-year-olds by as much as 10 percentage points — a potential difference of millions of votes. This shouldn’t come as a surprise: Young people cite not being registered as the top reason for not voting. And according to a recent estimate, fewer than half under 25 are on the rolls.
A Boon for Young Voters
TURNOUT
Same-day registration (SDR) broadly increases participation, especially among the young. Percentage of each age group turning out in presidential elections:
CHANGE
IN PCT.
POINTS
WITHOUT
S.D.R.
WITH
S.D.R.
65+
72
+5.0
72
+3.6
68
55-64
67
+4.6
67
63
+6.1
45-54
63
35-44
57
53
+7.7
25-34
45
40
+10.1
18-24
30
0
SHARE OF ELECTORATE
Even though all groups vote more, S.D.R. increases the overall share of young voters. Percentage of all presidential election voters, by age group:
CHANGE
IN PCT.
POINTS
WITHOUT
S.D.R.
WITH
S.D.R.
65+
23.7
23.0
–0.7
20.1
55-64
19.1
–1.0
19.1
18.6
–0.6
45-54
16.3
16.4
+0.1
35-44
15.1
+0.8
14.3
25-34
7.9
+1.4
6.5
18-24
0
TURNOUT
SHARE OF ELECTORATE
Same-day registration (S.D.R.) broadly increases participation, especially among the young. Percentage of each age group turning out in presidential elections:
Even though all groups vote more, S.D.R. increases the overall share of young voters. Percentage of all presidential election voters, by age group:
CHANGE
IN PCT.
POINTS
CHANGE
IN PCT.
POINTS
WITHOUT
S.D.R.
WITHOUT
S.D.R.
WITH
S.D.R.
WITH
S.D.R.
65+
65+
+5.0
72
23.7
72
+3.6
23.0
–0.7
68
55-64
+4.6
67
67
63
+6.1
45-54
20.1
63
55-64
19.1
–1.0
19.1
35-44
18.6
–0.6
57
45-54
53
+7.7
16.3
16.4
+0.1
35-44
15.1
+0.8
25-34
45
14.3
25-34
40
+10.1
18-24
30
7.9
+1.4
6.5
18-24
0
0
Graphics by Bill Marsh/The New York Times | Source: analysis by Jacob M. Grumbach, Princeton University, and Charlotte Hill, University of California-Berkeley
One of many reasons for the lack of registration is that young adults change addresses more than twice as often as people over 30, and with each relocation comes the need to register anew. Political scientists have described it as “the key stumbling block in the trip to the polls.” There’s also the risk of being “too”registered: Simultaneous registrations in two places has led to countless young people being purged from voting rolls without notice, according to an analysis by the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University.
It makes sense then that our study found that the impact of same-day registration on turnout is larger for young adults than it is for any other age group, with major consequences as a result: If Michigan had had same-day registration in 2016, our analysis finds, Hillary Clinton would have won the state. Since then, Michigan has approved same-day registration, which by itself is likely to produce about 100,000 new young voters in 2020 (and about 62,000 more voters over 65). If same-day registration was adopted across the country, the active electorate would become substantially younger.
A Much Different Michigan Outcome
Here are estimates of new Michigan voters — about 237,000 for Hillary Clinton and 147,000 for Donald Trump — who would have participated in the 2016 presidential election if the state had offered same-day registration. A net gain of 90,000 more Clinton voters would have carried Michigan; Trump won the state by fewer than 11,000 votes.
Additional Clinton
voters (in thousands)
Additional
Trump voters
AGE
GROUP
66
21
18-24
47
25
25-34
51
30
35-44
25
31
45-54
15
14
55-64
33
25
65+
Net gain: Clinton
would have won
90,000 more new
voters than Trump
Trump’s Michigan
2016 margin:
10,704
Additional Clinton
voters (in thousands)
Additional
Trump voters
AGE
GROUP
66
18-24
21
47
25-34
25
51
35-44
30
25
45-54
31
15
55-64
14
33
65+
25
Net gain: Clinton would have won
90,000 more new voters than Trump
Trump’s Michigan 2016 margin:
10,704
By The New York Times | Source: analysis of Census Current Population Survey and Cooperative Congressional Election Study data by Jacob M. Grumbach, Princeton University, and Charlotte Hill, University of California-Berkeley | Estimates rounded to nearest thousand.
The political implication is obvious: Progressives, who are by far the favored choice of young voters, should push for same-day registration in advance of the 2020 primaries and general election. Of all the reform options on the table, it is arguably the most popular and the most immediately doable.
Recognizing its potential power, congressional Democrats included same-day registration in an expansive voting rights and anti-corruption bill, H.R. 1, passed in March. The Republican Party — which has openly acknowledged their desire to suppress college students’ votes — has effectively blocked the bill in the Senate and will probably kill any similar bill in states where it has veto power.
But blue-state legislatures — particularly those that earned control of all three branches of power in 2018 — could pass same-day registration laws themselves in time for the 2020 election season, if pressure from youth and voting rights organizations ramps up.
If passed quickly enough this year, the new voting laws could broaden the electorate in the 2020 Democratic primary. Democrats over the age of 50 have the most power in the party, but younger voters and activists hold much of its fresh political energy. They tend to favor a different set of presidential candidates. And primaries or caucuses in states that have same-day registration will give them a fuller opportunity to have their voices heard.
Some blue and purple states other than Michigan have already taken steps. Late last year, Washington passed a same-day registration bill just months after Democrats retook the state legislature. New Mexico’s Democratic governor, Michelle Grisham, signed same-day registration into law in March. Nevada’s governor did the same in June. And when Maryland’s Republican Governor of Maryland, Larry Hogan, balked at signing a same-day registration bill into law, 67 percent of state Maryland voters ended up approving it anyway with a ballot measure in 2018. It went into effect this year, meaning that now 21 states and the District of Columbia will have some form of it on their books.
Still, there remain five states with Democratic control of all three branches of power where people still cannot vote and register to vote on that same day. Two of them, Oregon and Rhode Island, have done practically nothing in sessions this year to advance same-day registration. As for the other three states, New York approved a constitutional amendment permitting a first step toward the reform, while Delaware passed a bill in April that awaits the signature of Gov. John Carney and a New Jersey bill is languishing in committee.
Easier Voting, Now in 21 States and D.C.
Where same-day voter registration is allowed. Maine, Minnesota and Wisconsin have permitted it since the 1970s.
Before 2000
WHEN IT WENT INTO EFFECT:
2000–2009
2010 and later
ME
WA
VT
MT
MN
MI
NH
ID
WI
WY
CT
IA
NV
IL
UT
CO
MD
CA
NC
NM
DC
HI
N.C. allows same-day registration only during early voting, not on Election Day itself.
Before 2000
WHEN IT WENT INTO EFFECT:
2000–2009
2010 and later
WASH.
ME.
MONT.
VT.
MINN.
N.H.
MICH.
WIS.
IDAHO
WYO.
CONN.
IOWA
NEV.
ILL.
UTAH
COLO.
MD.
D.C.
CALIF.
N.C.
N.M.
N.C. allows same-day registration only during early voting, not on Election Day itself.
HAWAII
By The New York Times | Source: National Conference of State Legislatures
Same-day registration often faces quiet opposition from powerful elected Democrats, many of whom came to power years ago and who are re-elected thanks to an electorate familiar (or even loyal) to them. According to activists we’ve spoken with, some incumbents worry same-day registration could empower upstarts, younger and further to their left, who would challenge them in primaries. (Nobody wants to be a victim of the next Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or Ayanna Pressley.)
Of course, the pro-democracy movement doesn’t need to be limited to blue states. Indeed, most places that had same-day registration before 2000 are traditionally red and purple states.
Idaho, as conservative a state as any, has long had same-day registration. That Idahoans haven’t voted for a Democratic president since 1964 yet value same-day registration is proof that there are openings for youth groups to move the voting accessibility needle in red states too. While national Republicans may have no interest in making it easier for young people to vote, college-age conservatives do have something at stake. Voting is difficult for them too. And pushing Republicans to appeal to a younger electorate could exert a moderating influence on the party.
But even now, spreading same-day registration in red states isn’t a pipe dream: Ohio’s Republican secretary of state, Frank LaRose, is pushing for automatic voter registration, which would “opt in” Ohioans when they visit state agencies like the D.M.V. But passing same-day registration alongside automatic voter registration would help catch the thousands of young voters to whom those interactions only occasionally apply. Given their high stakes status as a swing state, Ohioans should push to include same-day registration in Mr. LaRose’s plan.
A familiar refrain is that the solution to low youth turnout isn’t a new law, but for young people to buck up and register the old-fashioned way. But as Anne Helen Petersen recently argued in an essay for BuzzFeed News, voting is just one of many important yet tedious tasks that millennials often find themselves constitutionally resistant to completing, like renewing passports, filing for tax rebates or submitting insurance reimbursement forms. While others attribute this inaction to simple laziness, Ms. Peterson urges us to more empathetically see it as part of the millennial burnout that researchers are documenting.
Whether you think her thesis is true or hogwash, if you believe in strengthening democracy the implication is the same: In an overworked society with young people increasingly accustomed to app-enabled shortcuts, states need to make voting more accessible using every lever available. In an ideal world, the lure of civic duty would be enough. In the real world, voters procrastinate, miss deadlines and find it hard to follow up amid their busy week.
Simple narratives about responsibility also miss that voter registrationis especially burdensome for young people, who often relocate for new jobs and school just as they become eligible to cast a ballot. That problem is compounded for low-income young people, who face underemployment and housing insecurity, and are more often people of color.
Ultimately, the precise mix of factors driving low youth registration remains unclear. Surely, a lack of trust in electoral politics, burnout and laziness as well as structural and racial barriers all play some sort of role, meaning that no reform is a silver bullet. Still, the data now clearly show allowing for registering on voting days is a clear opportunity to give everyone a full chance to participate.
As history both distant and recent has shown us — in movements for civil rights, against colonialism, and for the environment and gun control — young people have been a crucial presence at the political vanguard. Increasing youth turnout by instituting same-day registration would improve both parties, forcing them to grapple with the issues that matter most to this country’s newest generations. There’s no good reason, nonpartisan or not, to wait.
Charlotte Hill (@hill_charlotte) is on the board of FairVote and a Ph.D. candidate at UC Berkeley. Jake Grumbach (@JakeMGrumbach) is a fellow at the Center for the Study of Democratic Politics at Princeton University.
The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: [email protected].
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Home » Analysis & Comment » Opinion | Graphics: An Excitingly Simple Solution to Youth Turnout, for the Primaries and Beyond
Opinion | Graphics: An Excitingly Simple Solution to Youth Turnout, for the Primaries and Beyond
A striking feature of last year’s midterm elections was the historically high turnout. Still, only 31 percent of eligible young people cast a ballot — far lower than other age groups, even though millennials are the largest demographic in the country and much of Gen Z is now voting age.
Our research suggests a relatively easy fix: what’s known as same-day registration — allowing for voting and registering on voting days. Drawing on data from the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey Voter Supplement, we compared similar individuals in states with and without same-day registration laws, and also compared states before and after such laws went into effect.
We found that letting people register and vote on the same day increases turnout among 18- to 24-year-olds by as much as 10 percentage points — a potential difference of millions of votes. This shouldn’t come as a surprise: Young people cite not being registered as the top reason for not voting. And according to a recent estimate, fewer than half under 25 are on the rolls.
A Boon for Young Voters
TURNOUT
Same-day registration (SDR) broadly increases participation, especially among the young. Percentage of each age group turning out in presidential elections:
CHANGE
IN PCT.
POINTS
WITHOUT
S.D.R.
WITH
S.D.R.
65+
72
+5.0
72
+3.6
68
55-64
67
+4.6
67
63
+6.1
45-54
63
35-44
57
53
+7.7
25-34
45
40
+10.1
18-24
30
0
SHARE OF ELECTORATE
Even though all groups vote more, S.D.R. increases the overall share of young voters. Percentage of all presidential election voters, by age group:
CHANGE
IN PCT.
POINTS
WITHOUT
S.D.R.
WITH
S.D.R.
65+
23.7
23.0
–0.7
20.1
55-64
19.1
–1.0
19.1
18.6
–0.6
45-54
16.3
16.4
+0.1
35-44
15.1
+0.8
14.3
25-34
7.9
+1.4
6.5
18-24
0
TURNOUT
SHARE OF ELECTORATE
Same-day registration (S.D.R.) broadly increases participation, especially among the young. Percentage of each age group turning out in presidential elections:
Even though all groups vote more, S.D.R. increases the overall share of young voters. Percentage of all presidential election voters, by age group:
CHANGE
IN PCT.
POINTS
CHANGE
IN PCT.
POINTS
WITHOUT
S.D.R.
WITHOUT
S.D.R.
WITH
S.D.R.
WITH
S.D.R.
65+
65+
+5.0
72
23.7
72
+3.6
23.0
–0.7
68
55-64
+4.6
67
67
63
+6.1
45-54
20.1
63
55-64
19.1
–1.0
19.1
35-44
18.6
–0.6
57
45-54
53
+7.7
16.3
16.4
+0.1
35-44
15.1
+0.8
25-34
45
14.3
25-34
40
+10.1
18-24
30
7.9
+1.4
6.5
18-24
0
0
Graphics by Bill Marsh/The New York Times | Source: analysis by Jacob M. Grumbach, Princeton University, and Charlotte Hill, University of California-Berkeley
One of many reasons for the lack of registration is that young adults change addresses more than twice as often as people over 30, and with each relocation comes the need to register anew. Political scientists have described it as “the key stumbling block in the trip to the polls.” There’s also the risk of being “too” registered: Simultaneous registrations in two places has led to countless young people being purged from voting rolls without notice, according to an analysis by the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University.
It makes sense then that our study found that the impact of same-day registration on turnout is larger for young adults than it is for any other age group, with major consequences as a result: If Michigan had had same-day registration in 2016, our analysis finds, Hillary Clinton would have won the state. Since then, Michigan has approved same-day registration, which by itself is likely to produce about 100,000 new young voters in 2020 (and about 62,000 more voters over 65). If same-day registration was adopted across the country, the active electorate would become substantially younger.
A Much Different Michigan Outcome
Here are estimates of new Michigan voters — about 237,000 for Hillary Clinton and 147,000 for Donald Trump — who would have participated in the 2016 presidential election if the state had offered same-day registration. A net gain of 90,000 more Clinton voters would have carried Michigan; Trump won the state by fewer than 11,000 votes.
Additional Clinton
voters (in thousands)
Additional
Trump voters
AGE
GROUP
66
21
18-24
47
25
25-34
51
30
35-44
25
31
45-54
15
14
55-64
33
25
65+
Net gain: Clinton
would have won
90,000 more new
voters than Trump
Trump’s Michigan
2016 margin:
10,704
Additional Clinton
voters (in thousands)
Additional
Trump voters
AGE
GROUP
66
18-24
21
47
25-34
25
51
35-44
30
25
45-54
31
15
55-64
14
33
65+
25
Net gain: Clinton would have won
90,000 more new voters than Trump
Trump’s Michigan 2016 margin:
10,704
By The New York Times | Source: analysis of Census Current Population Survey and Cooperative Congressional Election Study data by Jacob M. Grumbach, Princeton University, and Charlotte Hill, University of California-Berkeley | Estimates rounded to nearest thousand.
The political implication is obvious: Progressives, who are by far the favored choice of young voters, should push for same-day registration in advance of the 2020 primaries and general election. Of all the reform options on the table, it is arguably the most popular and the most immediately doable.
Recognizing its potential power, congressional Democrats included same-day registration in an expansive voting rights and anti-corruption bill, H.R. 1, passed in March. The Republican Party — which has openly acknowledged their desire to suppress college students’ votes — has effectively blocked the bill in the Senate and will probably kill any similar bill in states where it has veto power.
But blue-state legislatures — particularly those that earned control of all three branches of power in 2018 — could pass same-day registration laws themselves in time for the 2020 election season, if pressure from youth and voting rights organizations ramps up.
If passed quickly enough this year, the new voting laws could broaden the electorate in the 2020 Democratic primary. Democrats over the age of 50 have the most power in the party, but younger voters and activists hold much of its fresh political energy. They tend to favor a different set of presidential candidates. And primaries or caucuses in states that have same-day registration will give them a fuller opportunity to have their voices heard.
Some blue and purple states other than Michigan have already taken steps. Late last year, Washington passed a same-day registration bill just months after Democrats retook the state legislature. New Mexico’s Democratic governor, Michelle Grisham, signed same-day registration into law in March. Nevada’s governor did the same in June. And when Maryland’s Republican Governor of Maryland, Larry Hogan, balked at signing a same-day registration bill into law, 67 percent of state Maryland voters ended up approving it anyway with a ballot measure in 2018. It went into effect this year, meaning that now 21 states and the District of Columbia will have some form of it on their books.
Still, there remain five states with Democratic control of all three branches of power where people still cannot vote and register to vote on that same day. Two of them, Oregon and Rhode Island, have done practically nothing in sessions this year to advance same-day registration. As for the other three states, New York approved a constitutional amendment permitting a first step toward the reform, while Delaware passed a bill in April that awaits the signature of Gov. John Carney and a New Jersey bill is languishing in committee.
Easier Voting, Now in 21 States and D.C.
Where same-day voter registration is allowed. Maine, Minnesota and Wisconsin have permitted it since the 1970s.
Before 2000
WHEN IT WENT INTO EFFECT:
2000–2009
2010 and later
ME
WA
VT
MT
MN
MI
NH
ID
WI
WY
CT
IA
NV
IL
UT
CO
MD
CA
NC
NM
DC
HI
N.C. allows same-day registration only during early voting, not on Election Day itself.
Before 2000
WHEN IT WENT INTO EFFECT:
2000–2009
2010 and later
WASH.
ME.
MONT.
VT.
MINN.
N.H.
MICH.
WIS.
IDAHO
WYO.
CONN.
IOWA
NEV.
ILL.
UTAH
COLO.
MD.
D.C.
CALIF.
N.C.
N.M.
N.C. allows same-day registration only during early voting, not on Election Day itself.
HAWAII
By The New York Times | Source: National Conference of State Legislatures
Same-day registration often faces quiet opposition from powerful elected Democrats, many of whom came to power years ago and who are re-elected thanks to an electorate familiar (or even loyal) to them. According to activists we’ve spoken with, some incumbents worry same-day registration could empower upstarts, younger and further to their left, who would challenge them in primaries. (Nobody wants to be a victim of the next Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or Ayanna Pressley.)
Of course, the pro-democracy movement doesn’t need to be limited to blue states. Indeed, most places that had same-day registration before 2000 are traditionally red and purple states.
Idaho, as conservative a state as any, has long had same-day registration. That Idahoans haven’t voted for a Democratic president since 1964 yet value same-day registration is proof that there are openings for youth groups to move the voting accessibility needle in red states too. While national Republicans may have no interest in making it easier for young people to vote, college-age conservatives do have something at stake. Voting is difficult for them too. And pushing Republicans to appeal to a younger electorate could exert a moderating influence on the party.
But even now, spreading same-day registration in red states isn’t a pipe dream: Ohio’s Republican secretary of state, Frank LaRose, is pushing for automatic voter registration, which would “opt in” Ohioans when they visit state agencies like the D.M.V. But passing same-day registration alongside automatic voter registration would help catch the thousands of young voters to whom those interactions only occasionally apply. Given their high stakes status as a swing state, Ohioans should push to include same-day registration in Mr. LaRose’s plan.
A familiar refrain is that the solution to low youth turnout isn’t a new law, but for young people to buck up and register the old-fashioned way. But as Anne Helen Petersen recently argued in an essay for BuzzFeed News, voting is just one of many important yet tedious tasks that millennials often find themselves constitutionally resistant to completing, like renewing passports, filing for tax rebates or submitting insurance reimbursement forms. While others attribute this inaction to simple laziness, Ms. Peterson urges us to more empathetically see it as part of the millennial burnout that researchers are documenting.
Whether you think her thesis is true or hogwash, if you believe in strengthening democracy the implication is the same: In an overworked society with young people increasingly accustomed to app-enabled shortcuts, states need to make voting more accessible using every lever available. In an ideal world, the lure of civic duty would be enough. In the real world, voters procrastinate, miss deadlines and find it hard to follow up amid their busy week.
Simple narratives about responsibility also miss that voter registration is especially burdensome for young people, who often relocate for new jobs and school just as they become eligible to cast a ballot. That problem is compounded for low-income young people, who face underemployment and housing insecurity, and are more often people of color.
Ultimately, the precise mix of factors driving low youth registration remains unclear. Surely, a lack of trust in electoral politics, burnout and laziness as well as structural and racial barriers all play some sort of role, meaning that no reform is a silver bullet. Still, the data now clearly show allowing for registering on voting days is a clear opportunity to give everyone a full chance to participate.
As history both distant and recent has shown us — in movements for civil rights, against colonialism, and for the environment and gun control — young people have been a crucial presence at the political vanguard. Increasing youth turnout by instituting same-day registration would improve both parties, forcing them to grapple with the issues that matter most to this country’s newest generations. There’s no good reason, nonpartisan or not, to wait.
Charlotte Hill (@hill_charlotte) is on the board of FairVote and a Ph.D. candidate at UC Berkeley. Jake Grumbach (@JakeMGrumbach) is a fellow at the Center for the Study of Democratic Politics at Princeton University.
The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: [email protected].
Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram.
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