Monday, 18 Nov 2024

Opinion | Don’t Make a Deal

This article is part of David Leonhardt’s newsletter. You can sign up here to receive it each weekday.

First, Obamacare marches on: In the latest sign of the law’s success, Maine has become the 36th state to expand Medicaid, thanks to the insistence of the state’s voters.

Janet Mills, Maine’s new Democratic governor, implemented the expansion more than a year after voters approved it in a ballot referendum. The previous governor — Paul LePage, a Republican — had refused to honor the referendum’s result. As a result of Mills’s move, more than 500 Mainers gained health insurance, and many more will be covered in coming years.

The larger lesson is to avoid despair. Changing laws is hard work, often involving years of frustration. But it really is possible for politics to improve people’s lives. Congratulations to all of the voters, activists, politicians and medical professionals in Maine who kept fighting for this change.

[Listen to “The Argument” podcast every Thursday morning, with Ross Douthat, Michelle Goldberg and David Leonhardt.]

Let’s make a deal

Should Democrats be willing to bargain on the border wall — say, win big progress on other parts of immigration policy in exchange for wall funding? I asked this question on Twitter yesterday, and the roughly 1,500 responses were split almost evenly between yes and no.

I was struck by the even split, because it’s consistent with my own conflicted feelings. There is a real case for bargaining. The wall would not transform this country’s immigration policy, and it’s plausible that President Trump would agree to real concessions — like legal status for the young immigrants known as Dreamers — for wall funding.

Yesterday, a group of Republican senators began pushing for a deal broadly along these lines. The editorial boards of The Washington Post, The Chicago Tribune and The New York Post all favor such a compromise. It could also protect immigrants from Haiti, Honduras and El Salvador who are fleeing natural disasters and whose protected status Trump has revoked, writes Ali Noorani for CNN.

My own view is that Democrats should remain open to a deal, but not put too much hope in it. For one thing, the chances seem slim that Republicans will make big enough concessions, given the hardline immigration positions of top Trump advisers.

For another, I worry about the political effect of rewarding Trump’s tactics on the wall. Remember, he canceled a deal to keep the government open that both Republican and Democratic members of Congress agreed to. He did so in large part because Fox News hosts and other conservative pundits began making fun of him. And his case for the border wall is based on a torrent of lies.

“To those who say, ‘Trump should give DACA, Pelosi should do the wall,’ we must say a clear, ‘No.’” Reverend William Barber tweeted yesterday, referring to the policy that would make Dreamers legal. “The wall isn’t negotiable b/c it’s based on lies, racism & white nationalism.”

The Democrats’ best bet is probably to force Trump to end this mess himself, likely through a legally questionable declaration of emergency. That declaration would be the subject of a legal fight, and it would create some political risks for Trump. He is apparently considering taking money away from disaster relief in Florida and elsewhere, which doesn’t seem like the smartest move given the state’s electoral importance.

The shutdown isn’t going well for Trump. Voters mostly blame him, polls show. Republicans in Congress are grumbling. If Democrats are tempted to make a deal, it needs to be a very favorable one.

Pop-culture postscript: A reader points out that the wall fight echoes a “House of Cards” plot line. In season 3, the president diverts money from disaster relief to pay for a jobs program that Congress refused to fund. House of cards, indeed.

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David Leonhardt is a former Washington bureau chief for the Times, and was the founding editor of The Upshot and head of The 2020 Project, on the future of the Times newsroom. He won the 2011 Pulitzer Prize for commentary, for columns on the financial crisis. @DLeonhardt Facebook

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