The only question now is whether the election will be as early as February or as late as May. Nobody, but nobody, believed after the last election on February 26, 2016, that it would take four years before the next one came around.
But this minority Coalition led by Fine Gael, propped up by various Independents, and operating by grace of Fianna Fáil, was artificially kept in place for the past two years by the crisis surrounding Brexit. For some, Brexit amounted to “political cover” for the big parties who had little election enthusiasm.
Ironically, in the UK, Brexit caused two general elections over the same period, one in June 2017, and the other last December 12. Fine Gael will have been leading the Government here for nine solid years on March 9 next.
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That nine-year stint will be hammered by Fianna Fáil as it bids to become the next anchor tenants of Government Buildings by, among other tactics, urging change for change’s sake. But public opinion is very fluid right now and the upcoming election will be a deal more complex.
For the first time in over 20 years much will turn on the campaign itself. A televised head-to-head clash between the two leaders, both of whom are able debaters, is an intriguing prospect. The realpolitik is that both of them will have to go for broke.
Meanwhile, we are witnessing the strange machinations of both Leo Varadkar and Micheál Martin about the election timing. Fixing polling day is still the Taoiseach’s sole responsibility.
But Mr Martin is trying to avoid a situation where Mr Varadkar blames Fianna Fáil for precipitating an election earlier than entirely necessary. His party colleagues argue that, since they took the risk, and facilitated government for four years, it is reasonable that Fianna Fáil should have some role in naming the date.
Thus Mr Martin has suggested an “orderly wind down” of the Dáil and Government. In essence, he has suggested that TDs see out the next term and the election be held after Easter, which this year falls on April 12. That would see polling day in early May – much the same timing as signalled by the Taoiseach.
Fine Gael sees Mr Martin’s manoeuvring as also an attempt at rendering it “a lame duck”, eking out its last days to a Fianna Fáil chorus of “health is broken, housing is broken”. That point screams out from the letter the Taoiseach sent to Mr Martin on the eve of Christmas Eve.
“I am firmly of the opinion that no Government or Dáil should be ‘wound down’. Governments and the Dáil should be active in their duties to the last moment,” Mr Varadkar wrote. And that point is again reiterated today by the Fine Gael party chairman, Martin Heydon, in an interview with this newspaper.
“The country does not need a paralysed Government in wind down,” he said.
As the ‘Sunday Independent’ reported yesterday, Mr Varadkar appears keen to take out a little “fire insurance” via a pre-election agreement on minor property tax reforms. Fianna Fáil’s pawprints on what will undoubtedly be minor local tax changes would be a godsend.
Mind you that would also be a heaven-sent opportunity for some Opposition parties to throw a pre-election scare into suburban voters particularly. But any property tax changes are likely to be incremental – what may happen in the medium term, especially in an economic downturn, is entirely another day’s work.
Fine Gael sources are keen to stress that there are other items on Mr Varadkar’s “to-do list” between next week, when the Dáil returns, and the Easter break.
These include: engaging with the British government and the Northern Ireland parties to restore power-sharing; starting the process of framing a new Irish-UK relationship post-Brexit; enacting the Climate Change Bill, the Official Languages Bill, and Land Development Agency Bill.
It also includes publication of the new Action Plan for Rural Ireland to complement the National Broadband Plan, which is now getting started; concluding the ethics investigation into ‘votegate’ and ‘fobgate’; and new Dáil expenses rules.
It has the look of a brave attempt to at least fill space on the agenda, which otherwise would be filled by Government shortcomings. Added to health and housing there will be runaway broadband budgets, and children’s hospital costings.
The Christmas holidays brought low-grade sniping between the two. Now the seasonal exuberance has vanished there may be a more hard-headed approach.
Contacts between both leaders’ offices will be made today – and a meeting is likely in the coming days before the Dáil returns. The Taoiseach has said, that to make any agreement stick, Fianna Fáil might have to actually vote with Fine Gael on contentious issues – not just abstain. But some within Fianna Fáil suggest that if an election date is fixed this eventuality may not arise because the bulk of parties might actually go with it.
Fine Gael faces an uphill election battle from the outset. But on its watch the economy has been turned around.
The EU-ECB-IMF correcting the Government’s homework and setting the economic parameters is now a distant memory. We are on the cusp of ‘full employment’ while the jobless figure was 15pc as recently as 2012.
But memories of the lost decade linger still. There is a realisation of a longer-term debt overhang leaving Ireland vulnerable to any rise in international interest rates.
There is also fretfulness about an over-dependence on large revenue from multinational companies which may not endure, just as in the last boom when the government ran on transient bloated revenue from the building sector.
And the bugbears are continued difficulties in the health service and the housing crisis which is hitting all sections of Irish society. There are middle-class parents anxious to see their 30-something kids get on the property ladder; those dependent on social housing; those living in increasingly expensive private rented homes; and first-time buyers struggling against the odds.
Fine Gael begins with up to 10 big names not fielding again. No great surprise that Enda Kenny, Michael Noonan, and Seán Barrett are calling it a day after decades at Leinster House. But it was a surprise to see the Waterford rivals John Deasy and Paudie Coffey, alongside junior health minister Jim Daly, doing likewise.
But the party does have grounds to argue that it can overcome those challenges and Fianna Fáil has its own particular difficulties to face. Chief of these is a lack of credible heavy-hitters who would look like cabinet material – the obligation to demote both Timmy Dooley and Niall Collins over ‘votegate’ compounds this.
It can presume a great deal of forgiveness for the 2008 economic crash and bank bailouts. But it would be unwise to conclude the voters have entirely forgotten who was on the bridge in those dark days – including a certain Micheál Martin, a senior minister from 1997 until 2011.
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Home » Analysis & Comment » John Downing: 'Timing of election can't hide realpolitik that both leaders will have to go for broke to sway fluid voters'
John Downing: 'Timing of election can't hide realpolitik that both leaders will have to go for broke to sway fluid voters'
The only question now is whether the election will be as early as February or as late as May. Nobody, but nobody, believed after the last election on February 26, 2016, that it would take four years before the next one came around.
But this minority Coalition led by Fine Gael, propped up by various Independents, and operating by grace of Fianna Fáil, was artificially kept in place for the past two years by the crisis surrounding Brexit. For some, Brexit amounted to “political cover” for the big parties who had little election enthusiasm.
Ironically, in the UK, Brexit caused two general elections over the same period, one in June 2017, and the other last December 12. Fine Gael will have been leading the Government here for nine solid years on March 9 next.
Please log in or register with Independent.ie for free access to this article.
Log In
New to Independent.ie? Create an account
That nine-year stint will be hammered by Fianna Fáil as it bids to become the next anchor tenants of Government Buildings by, among other tactics, urging change for change’s sake. But public opinion is very fluid right now and the upcoming election will be a deal more complex.
For the first time in over 20 years much will turn on the campaign itself. A televised head-to-head clash between the two leaders, both of whom are able debaters, is an intriguing prospect. The realpolitik is that both of them will have to go for broke.
Meanwhile, we are witnessing the strange machinations of both Leo Varadkar and Micheál Martin about the election timing. Fixing polling day is still the Taoiseach’s sole responsibility.
But Mr Martin is trying to avoid a situation where Mr Varadkar blames Fianna Fáil for precipitating an election earlier than entirely necessary. His party colleagues argue that, since they took the risk, and facilitated government for four years, it is reasonable that Fianna Fáil should have some role in naming the date.
Thus Mr Martin has suggested an “orderly wind down” of the Dáil and Government. In essence, he has suggested that TDs see out the next term and the election be held after Easter, which this year falls on April 12. That would see polling day in early May – much the same timing as signalled by the Taoiseach.
Fine Gael sees Mr Martin’s manoeuvring as also an attempt at rendering it “a lame duck”, eking out its last days to a Fianna Fáil chorus of “health is broken, housing is broken”. That point screams out from the letter the Taoiseach sent to Mr Martin on the eve of Christmas Eve.
“I am firmly of the opinion that no Government or Dáil should be ‘wound down’. Governments and the Dáil should be active in their duties to the last moment,” Mr Varadkar wrote. And that point is again reiterated today by the Fine Gael party chairman, Martin Heydon, in an interview with this newspaper.
“The country does not need a paralysed Government in wind down,” he said.
As the ‘Sunday Independent’ reported yesterday, Mr Varadkar appears keen to take out a little “fire insurance” via a pre-election agreement on minor property tax reforms. Fianna Fáil’s pawprints on what will undoubtedly be minor local tax changes would be a godsend.
Mind you that would also be a heaven-sent opportunity for some Opposition parties to throw a pre-election scare into suburban voters particularly. But any property tax changes are likely to be incremental – what may happen in the medium term, especially in an economic downturn, is entirely another day’s work.
Fine Gael sources are keen to stress that there are other items on Mr Varadkar’s “to-do list” between next week, when the Dáil returns, and the Easter break.
These include: engaging with the British government and the Northern Ireland parties to restore power-sharing; starting the process of framing a new Irish-UK relationship post-Brexit; enacting the Climate Change Bill, the Official Languages Bill, and Land Development Agency Bill.
It also includes publication of the new Action Plan for Rural Ireland to complement the National Broadband Plan, which is now getting started; concluding the ethics investigation into ‘votegate’ and ‘fobgate’; and new Dáil expenses rules.
It has the look of a brave attempt to at least fill space on the agenda, which otherwise would be filled by Government shortcomings. Added to health and housing there will be runaway broadband budgets, and children’s hospital costings.
The Christmas holidays brought low-grade sniping between the two. Now the seasonal exuberance has vanished there may be a more hard-headed approach.
Contacts between both leaders’ offices will be made today – and a meeting is likely in the coming days before the Dáil returns. The Taoiseach has said, that to make any agreement stick, Fianna Fáil might have to actually vote with Fine Gael on contentious issues – not just abstain. But some within Fianna Fáil suggest that if an election date is fixed this eventuality may not arise because the bulk of parties might actually go with it.
Fine Gael faces an uphill election battle from the outset. But on its watch the economy has been turned around.
The EU-ECB-IMF correcting the Government’s homework and setting the economic parameters is now a distant memory. We are on the cusp of ‘full employment’ while the jobless figure was 15pc as recently as 2012.
But memories of the lost decade linger still. There is a realisation of a longer-term debt overhang leaving Ireland vulnerable to any rise in international interest rates.
There is also fretfulness about an over-dependence on large revenue from multinational companies which may not endure, just as in the last boom when the government ran on transient bloated revenue from the building sector.
And the bugbears are continued difficulties in the health service and the housing crisis which is hitting all sections of Irish society. There are middle-class parents anxious to see their 30-something kids get on the property ladder; those dependent on social housing; those living in increasingly expensive private rented homes; and first-time buyers struggling against the odds.
Fine Gael begins with up to 10 big names not fielding again. No great surprise that Enda Kenny, Michael Noonan, and Seán Barrett are calling it a day after decades at Leinster House. But it was a surprise to see the Waterford rivals John Deasy and Paudie Coffey, alongside junior health minister Jim Daly, doing likewise.
But the party does have grounds to argue that it can overcome those challenges and Fianna Fáil has its own particular difficulties to face. Chief of these is a lack of credible heavy-hitters who would look like cabinet material – the obligation to demote both Timmy Dooley and Niall Collins over ‘votegate’ compounds this.
It can presume a great deal of forgiveness for the 2008 economic crash and bank bailouts. But it would be unwise to conclude the voters have entirely forgotten who was on the bridge in those dark days – including a certain Micheál Martin, a senior minister from 1997 until 2011.
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