Like many things to have been thrown overboard in the wake of the Brexit vote two and a half years ago, the old adage that “a week is a long time in politics” now seems hopelessly naive.
After all, the past week’s worth of chicanery in Westminster alone would normally be enough drama to fill the lifetime of two parliaments.
Yet, to the consternation and bewilderment of even the most seasoned political observers, the open confusion which has reigned since Theresa May’s farcical dash to Strasbourg last Monday seems to have deepened.
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On that occasion, it looked as if the embattled prime minister had managed to swing some sort of deal on the Irish backstop with the EU. Bizarrely, the whole thing was then scuppered by her own attorney general, Geoffrey Cox; an act of political sabotage which, in previous centuries, would have resulted in his head on a spike outside the Tower of London.
In the years and decades to come, historians will have a field day trying to piece together the various strands, grudges and personal foibles which have managed to turn a momentous, genuinely life-changing political decision about the future of the entire EU into a squalid, petty jostling for position by politicians – politicians who seem to have completely abandoned even the pretence of doing the right thing for the people in favour of securing their own post-Brexit future.
But will there even be a Brexit at this stage?
Interestingly, that is the question being asked by the most hard-line Brexiteers themselves, a sign of their despondency at the farcical and unworkable situation which now besets us all.
Of course, from an Irish perspective, that would suit us all very nicely, thank you very much.
But to imagine that the whole thing might simply fade away into the ether through a combination of second thoughts, mature reflection and the simple – but oft overlooked – element of pure Brexit-fatigue, is an exercise in wishful thinking.
It is quite incredible, really, to think that with a mere 10 days to go until the UK leaves the EU, everyone seems further away from some sort of deal than ever – and wherever there is uncertainty, there is room for chaos and bad choices.
Unfortunately, as we have learned in the past two and a half years, there is no upper limit on the number of bad choices that can be made by people who have placed their own venal self interest ahead of the common good.
Mrs May met with the DUP again yesterday in what is merely the latest set of “crisis talks” (we’ve long passed the days of mere “meetings”, now everything is a crisis) in an effort to get it on board for a third vote. But even then, there is no guarantee that its support would be sufficient to sway the vote her way.
The most optimistic estimates seem to suggest that a change of heart from the DUP could sway some of the other Brexiteers to vote with Mrs May’s proposals. But even those estimates suggest she still only has a 50/50 chance of getting it over the line, while the hard-line European Research Group reckons she will lose by 30-40 votes, even with DUP support.
Even if she were to win over the DUP – a party hardly renowned for its give-and-take approach to politics – she then faces an open revolt on the floor from the likes of David Davis, Dominic Raab and the ever-reliable Priti Patel, she of the “let’s starve the Irish into submission” school of diplomacy.
If the definition of insanity is trying the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result, then one could suggest that there is something seriously amiss in Downing Street. But Mrs May’s supporters will argue that there is, after all, a method to the madness we are witnessing.
The logic behind this seems to suggest that, were she to decide that there is no way she could win that vote, she will go to the EU summit in Brussels on Thursday and ask for an extension to the exit plan.
Would that be for three months? Or could it be stretched out to two years, as some have suggested?
Even assuming the club of 27 consents to any extension – and that’s a large assumption, given the rumoured resistance from France, Austria and Italy – that would merely be kicking the can down the road.
But even kicking the can down the road would at least give people some more time to try to work out what has so far been unworkable.
That the cracks are beginning to show between the pro-Brexit/anti-May factions may give the Irish some grounds for hope that the Tory party’s difficulties provide some opportunities for both this country and, indeed, the EU to exploit.
Boris Johnson, who has become a truly malevolent figure in all of this, managed to infuriate his fellow Brexiteers when he said that anyone who would vote with Mrs May’s proposed plan would be “guilty of sabotage”, which was merely rhetorical grist to the mill. But to then suggest, even more witheringly, that any pro-Brexit Tory who sided with their nominal leader (well, she is leader for now, at least) would be “unpatriotic” was, given the current febrile mood in Parliament, an insult that would be second only to accusing a member of the DUP of being a secret Fenian.
Even Jacob Rees-Mogg seems to be showing signs of panic. Or at the very least, he now seem less convinced of his own position.
Speaking on a London radio station yesterday, he admitted: “I genuinely haven’t made up my mind. There is a hierarchy. No deal is better than Mrs May’s deal, but Mrs May’s deal is better than not leaving. I don’t think we will get another chance to leave the European Union.
“Delay is denial. The thought that if you get two years for something better is hopelessly optimistic.”
Of course, a delay is not a denial at all, it is merely giving the technocrats – and, far more importantly, businesses – an opportunity to gather their breath and give them a better perspective on the long game ahead.
To most of us, that would seem reasonable. But as we have seen in frankly horrifying detail recently, reason left Westminster a long time ago, and the mother of parliaments has disgraced itself in ways previously unthinkable.
Ultimately, this week will – or should, at least – force the hands of everyone at the table: a straight no deal, an extension to the exit deal of varying times, another referendum on the matter, or a general election.
Confused? You should be.
After all, those Tories who have been leading this charge over the cliff have now become the political equivalent of the last scenes of ‘Reservoir Dogs’, with all the protagonists standing in a circle and pointing guns at each other.
And we all know how that ended up.
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Home » Analysis & Comment » Ian O'Doherty: 'Further uncertainty will only lead to more chaos and bad choices as Brexit reaches its endgame'
Ian O'Doherty: 'Further uncertainty will only lead to more chaos and bad choices as Brexit reaches its endgame'
Like many things to have been thrown overboard in the wake of the Brexit vote two and a half years ago, the old adage that “a week is a long time in politics” now seems hopelessly naive.
After all, the past week’s worth of chicanery in Westminster alone would normally be enough drama to fill the lifetime of two parliaments.
Yet, to the consternation and bewilderment of even the most seasoned political observers, the open confusion which has reigned since Theresa May’s farcical dash to Strasbourg last Monday seems to have deepened.
Please log in or register with Independent.ie for free access to this article.
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On that occasion, it looked as if the embattled prime minister had managed to swing some sort of deal on the Irish backstop with the EU. Bizarrely, the whole thing was then scuppered by her own attorney general, Geoffrey Cox; an act of political sabotage which, in previous centuries, would have resulted in his head on a spike outside the Tower of London.
In the years and decades to come, historians will have a field day trying to piece together the various strands, grudges and personal foibles which have managed to turn a momentous, genuinely life-changing political decision about the future of the entire EU into a squalid, petty jostling for position by politicians – politicians who seem to have completely abandoned even the pretence of doing the right thing for the people in favour of securing their own post-Brexit future.
But will there even be a Brexit at this stage?
Interestingly, that is the question being asked by the most hard-line Brexiteers themselves, a sign of their despondency at the farcical and unworkable situation which now besets us all.
Of course, from an Irish perspective, that would suit us all very nicely, thank you very much.
But to imagine that the whole thing might simply fade away into the ether through a combination of second thoughts, mature reflection and the simple – but oft overlooked – element of pure Brexit-fatigue, is an exercise in wishful thinking.
It is quite incredible, really, to think that with a mere 10 days to go until the UK leaves the EU, everyone seems further away from some sort of deal than ever – and wherever there is uncertainty, there is room for chaos and bad choices.
Unfortunately, as we have learned in the past two and a half years, there is no upper limit on the number of bad choices that can be made by people who have placed their own venal self interest ahead of the common good.
Mrs May met with the DUP again yesterday in what is merely the latest set of “crisis talks” (we’ve long passed the days of mere “meetings”, now everything is a crisis) in an effort to get it on board for a third vote. But even then, there is no guarantee that its support would be sufficient to sway the vote her way.
The most optimistic estimates seem to suggest that a change of heart from the DUP could sway some of the other Brexiteers to vote with Mrs May’s proposals. But even those estimates suggest she still only has a 50/50 chance of getting it over the line, while the hard-line European Research Group reckons she will lose by 30-40 votes, even with DUP support.
Even if she were to win over the DUP – a party hardly renowned for its give-and-take approach to politics – she then faces an open revolt on the floor from the likes of David Davis, Dominic Raab and the ever-reliable Priti Patel, she of the “let’s starve the Irish into submission” school of diplomacy.
If the definition of insanity is trying the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result, then one could suggest that there is something seriously amiss in Downing Street. But Mrs May’s supporters will argue that there is, after all, a method to the madness we are witnessing.
The logic behind this seems to suggest that, were she to decide that there is no way she could win that vote, she will go to the EU summit in Brussels on Thursday and ask for an extension to the exit plan.
Would that be for three months? Or could it be stretched out to two years, as some have suggested?
Even assuming the club of 27 consents to any extension – and that’s a large assumption, given the rumoured resistance from France, Austria and Italy – that would merely be kicking the can down the road.
But even kicking the can down the road would at least give people some more time to try to work out what has so far been unworkable.
That the cracks are beginning to show between the pro-Brexit/anti-May factions may give the Irish some grounds for hope that the Tory party’s difficulties provide some opportunities for both this country and, indeed, the EU to exploit.
Boris Johnson, who has become a truly malevolent figure in all of this, managed to infuriate his fellow Brexiteers when he said that anyone who would vote with Mrs May’s proposed plan would be “guilty of sabotage”, which was merely rhetorical grist to the mill. But to then suggest, even more witheringly, that any pro-Brexit Tory who sided with their nominal leader (well, she is leader for now, at least) would be “unpatriotic” was, given the current febrile mood in Parliament, an insult that would be second only to accusing a member of the DUP of being a secret Fenian.
Even Jacob Rees-Mogg seems to be showing signs of panic. Or at the very least, he now seem less convinced of his own position.
Speaking on a London radio station yesterday, he admitted: “I genuinely haven’t made up my mind. There is a hierarchy. No deal is better than Mrs May’s deal, but Mrs May’s deal is better than not leaving. I don’t think we will get another chance to leave the European Union.
“Delay is denial. The thought that if you get two years for something better is hopelessly optimistic.”
Of course, a delay is not a denial at all, it is merely giving the technocrats – and, far more importantly, businesses – an opportunity to gather their breath and give them a better perspective on the long game ahead.
To most of us, that would seem reasonable. But as we have seen in frankly horrifying detail recently, reason left Westminster a long time ago, and the mother of parliaments has disgraced itself in ways previously unthinkable.
Ultimately, this week will – or should, at least – force the hands of everyone at the table: a straight no deal, an extension to the exit deal of varying times, another referendum on the matter, or a general election.
Confused? You should be.
After all, those Tories who have been leading this charge over the cliff have now become the political equivalent of the last scenes of ‘Reservoir Dogs’, with all the protagonists standing in a circle and pointing guns at each other.
And we all know how that ended up.
Source: Read Full Article