It’s Super Bowl weekend in the United States. The Kansas City Chiefs play the San Francisco 49ers in Miami, Florida. Probably more attention will be paid to the half-time acts by Jennifer Lopez and Shakira.
In American football, a Hail Mary pass is a long throw, typically made in desperation, late in the game by a team trying to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
Throw and pray.
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Log In
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On this side of the Atlantic, the equivalent is the long high ball into the box in the final minute of a hurling or football match.
Hit and hope.
Next weekend, this country has it’s own All-Ireland final, Grand Slam and Super Bowl all rolled into one in the form of a General Election.
In political terms, the Hail Mary pass is the message to voters in the final week of the campaign, warning about a likely undesirable outcome.
Michael McDowell went up a lamppost with a PD poster saying ‘One-party government? No thanks’ in the 2002 General Election.
At the time, Bertie Ahern’s Fianna Fáil was poised to get an overall majority as the Celtic Tiger took off.
McDowell’s intervention put the PDs back in the game and slowed Fianna Fáil’s charge.
The Labour Party pulled a similar trick a decade later with its ‘Every little hurts’ Tesco ad targeting Fine Gael.
In economic crash-ridden Ireland, Fine Gael was heading for an overall majority in the 2011 General Election.
The stunt by Eamon Gilmore’s Labour pulled them back a bit and the two parties went into coalition together.
The pattern is the prospective smaller party in a coalition putting an unattractive notion into the voters’ minds.
In this General Election, the main party in the outgoing Government is now focusing minds on what is to follow.
Fine Gael is throwing the ‘Hail Mary pass’ into the final week, warning of a Fianna Fáil-Sinn Féin partnership.
Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe says this would be “a coalition of the wreckers and reckless” and a “combination of the dangerous and the spineless” as Sinn Féin would scorch the economy and Fianna Fáil wouldn’t be able to resist the taste of power.
Donohoe carries a fair bit of credibility and isn’t well known for flurries of rhetoric.
He is putting a doubt in people’s mind about Micheál Martin’s insistence he won’t go into power with Sinn Féin by pointing to several Fianna Fáil TDs who haven’t ruled it out.
His pitch is to the base of centre ground floating voters who drift between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. And it ties in with the Fine Gael message about managing the economy by saying there is a “cocktail of risk to jobs, taxpayers, public services” and the economy from such an alliance.
Fine Gael’s psychological message on the doors will be: “You may not like us, but beware what you get instead.”
Donohoe is not seeking a game-changer here, to suddenly put Fine Gael dramatically back in front. He’s just looking to flip a couple of percentage points his way, away from Fianna Fáil.
His opposite number in Fianna Fáil, Michael McGrath, says Martin has been absolutely clear, while Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has been putting down an open position in a negotiation with Sinn Féin by saying his issue with McDonald’s party was not their past, but their current policies.
McGrath says what has crystallised over the course of the campaign is Fine Gael and Sinn Féin want power and “the only way to achieve a change of government is to vote Fianna Fáil”.
Therein lies the difficulty for Fianna Fáil. The voters aren’t buying it that Martin and his party represent ‘change’.
The swing voters in this election are talking about a revolution, not a slight changing of the guard.
Hence Sinn Féin’s emergence on to pitch as an alternative third force.
Campaigns count for a lot and don’t always turn out as planned. A couple of weeks back it appeared Fianna Fáil was cruising towards Government Buildings with its desired coalition with the Green Party, Labour, Social Democrats and a few Independents.
Let’s be clear, it’s still a potential outcome.
What they hadn’t banked on was the ‘Shinner Surge’ of support for Mary Lou McDonald from voters who were never before countenancing voting for Sinn Féin.
McDonald is fulfilling her potential of making Sinn Féin more attractive to middle-class voters. Backed by the impactful Pearse Doherty on finance and insurance and the effective Eoin Ó Broin on housing, the party has filled the vacuum for a desired ‘change’.
Within Fine Gael, a theory is growing that Sinn Féin’s rise isn’t really its problem as its vote isn’t going in that direction. All they have to do is target Fianna Fáil.
The early polling data floating around the bubble suggests Sinn Féin continuing to rise, so Fianna Fáil will knuckle down on punching holes in its manifesto.
Fianna Fáil has spotted what Fine Gael is up to, trying to keep them down and keep a path to return to power open.
Victory is still within Fianna Fáil’s grasp in this election.
Martin is still the favourite to be the next Taoiseach.
However, the make-up of that coalition is still very much in the mix.
Martin is possibly looking at the Catch 22 situation of either a grand coalition with Fine Gael or a republican coalition bringing Sinn Féin into power.
Be careful what you wish for.
Source: Read Full Article
Home » Analysis & Comment » Fionnán Sheahan: 'Fine Gael throws the Hail Mary pass with warnings of Sinn Féin-Fianna Fáil axis'
Fionnán Sheahan: 'Fine Gael throws the Hail Mary pass with warnings of Sinn Féin-Fianna Fáil axis'
It’s Super Bowl weekend in the United States. The Kansas City Chiefs play the San Francisco 49ers in Miami, Florida. Probably more attention will be paid to the half-time acts by Jennifer Lopez and Shakira.
In American football, a Hail Mary pass is a long throw, typically made in desperation, late in the game by a team trying to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
Throw and pray.
Please log in or register with Independent.ie for free access to this article.
Log In
New to Independent.ie? Create an account
On this side of the Atlantic, the equivalent is the long high ball into the box in the final minute of a hurling or football match.
Hit and hope.
Next weekend, this country has it’s own All-Ireland final, Grand Slam and Super Bowl all rolled into one in the form of a General Election.
In political terms, the Hail Mary pass is the message to voters in the final week of the campaign, warning about a likely undesirable outcome.
Michael McDowell went up a lamppost with a PD poster saying ‘One-party government? No thanks’ in the 2002 General Election.
At the time, Bertie Ahern’s Fianna Fáil was poised to get an overall majority as the Celtic Tiger took off.
McDowell’s intervention put the PDs back in the game and slowed Fianna Fáil’s charge.
The Labour Party pulled a similar trick a decade later with its ‘Every little hurts’ Tesco ad targeting Fine Gael.
In economic crash-ridden Ireland, Fine Gael was heading for an overall majority in the 2011 General Election.
The stunt by Eamon Gilmore’s Labour pulled them back a bit and the two parties went into coalition together.
The pattern is the prospective smaller party in a coalition putting an unattractive notion into the voters’ minds.
In this General Election, the main party in the outgoing Government is now focusing minds on what is to follow.
Fine Gael is throwing the ‘Hail Mary pass’ into the final week, warning of a Fianna Fáil-Sinn Féin partnership.
Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe says this would be “a coalition of the wreckers and reckless” and a “combination of the dangerous and the spineless” as Sinn Féin would scorch the economy and Fianna Fáil wouldn’t be able to resist the taste of power.
Donohoe carries a fair bit of credibility and isn’t well known for flurries of rhetoric.
He is putting a doubt in people’s mind about Micheál Martin’s insistence he won’t go into power with Sinn Féin by pointing to several Fianna Fáil TDs who haven’t ruled it out.
His pitch is to the base of centre ground floating voters who drift between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. And it ties in with the Fine Gael message about managing the economy by saying there is a “cocktail of risk to jobs, taxpayers, public services” and the economy from such an alliance.
Fine Gael’s psychological message on the doors will be: “You may not like us, but beware what you get instead.”
Donohoe is not seeking a game-changer here, to suddenly put Fine Gael dramatically back in front. He’s just looking to flip a couple of percentage points his way, away from Fianna Fáil.
His opposite number in Fianna Fáil, Michael McGrath, says Martin has been absolutely clear, while Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has been putting down an open position in a negotiation with Sinn Féin by saying his issue with McDonald’s party was not their past, but their current policies.
McGrath says what has crystallised over the course of the campaign is Fine Gael and Sinn Féin want power and “the only way to achieve a change of government is to vote Fianna Fáil”.
Therein lies the difficulty for Fianna Fáil. The voters aren’t buying it that Martin and his party represent ‘change’.
The swing voters in this election are talking about a revolution, not a slight changing of the guard.
Hence Sinn Féin’s emergence on to pitch as an alternative third force.
Campaigns count for a lot and don’t always turn out as planned. A couple of weeks back it appeared Fianna Fáil was cruising towards Government Buildings with its desired coalition with the Green Party, Labour, Social Democrats and a few Independents.
Let’s be clear, it’s still a potential outcome.
What they hadn’t banked on was the ‘Shinner Surge’ of support for Mary Lou McDonald from voters who were never before countenancing voting for Sinn Féin.
McDonald is fulfilling her potential of making Sinn Féin more attractive to middle-class voters. Backed by the impactful Pearse Doherty on finance and insurance and the effective Eoin Ó Broin on housing, the party has filled the vacuum for a desired ‘change’.
Within Fine Gael, a theory is growing that Sinn Féin’s rise isn’t really its problem as its vote isn’t going in that direction. All they have to do is target Fianna Fáil.
The early polling data floating around the bubble suggests Sinn Féin continuing to rise, so Fianna Fáil will knuckle down on punching holes in its manifesto.
Fianna Fáil has spotted what Fine Gael is up to, trying to keep them down and keep a path to return to power open.
Victory is still within Fianna Fáil’s grasp in this election.
Martin is still the favourite to be the next Taoiseach.
However, the make-up of that coalition is still very much in the mix.
Martin is possibly looking at the Catch 22 situation of either a grand coalition with Fine Gael or a republican coalition bringing Sinn Féin into power.
Be careful what you wish for.
Source: Read Full Article