It will be clear within days whether October 31 will see a UK crash-out from the European Union, and the blame game in Ireland centres around the adequacy of Government preparations. The Government must downplay the extent of preparedness to avoid feeding the ‘no problem’ narrative of Brexiteers and the Irish blame game is rather phoney as a result.
No critic has identified any feasible unilateral action open to the Irish Government which avoids border controls with Northern Ireland sooner or later, short of contemplating withdrawal from the internal market, effectively resigning from the EU.
Unless the UK chooses some form of post-Brexit close alignment, such as the so-called Norway option, there will be controls at each EU external border, including the land divide in Ireland. The Norway option was briefly available for the UK immediately after the 2016 referendum, but that ship has sailed. The Sinn Fein MEP Matt Carthy has been calling for the Government to simply refuse to install border controls. But governments must choose from the items on the menu, and there is no option combining a leaky border and continued membership in the EU’s internal market. The European Union’s defence of the backstop has been over-sold as exclusively about solidarity with Ireland. It is principally an EU requirement to insulate the single market from a UK-sized hole in its border.
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A different pre-emptive blame game now dominates politics in the UK. The fundamental delusion of Brexit, that the process would be easy, survived the referendum campaign and persists in the public mind more than three years later. Its current manifestation is Boris Johnson’s blustering promise to ‘get it over with’, deal or no deal. Opinion polls and focus groups confirm the prevalence of the utterly mistaken impression that the Brexit dilemma ends, and will disappear from the headlines, the day after the UK’s departure. Some people apparently still confuse no-deal with the walk-away option at a used car lot.
Whether Johnson secures a new withdrawal agreement or the UK crashes out, the process of disentanglement will occupy several more years, perhaps a decade, and the conduct of British policy ensures the process will lack goodwill and trust.
The Brexit Phrase of the Week Award goes to Scottish barrister Aidan O’Neill, who accused Johnson of ‘incontinent mendacity’, a stylish alternative to ‘inveterate lying’. Johnson’s current lie asserts the UK’s continuing engagement in ‘negotiations’ with the European Union which would, but for uncooperative MPs in the House of Commons, deliver a satisfactory result. Everybody who could possibly be aware of any such negotiations has denied their existence. That such a demonstrated lie has sustained the prime minister for over a month is a measure of the dysfunction wrought by Brexit on the UK’s politics and media.
In its decision extending the operative UK departure date to October 31, the European Council decided, on April 10 and with the agreement of the UK government, as follows: “This extension excludes any re-opening of the Withdrawal Agreement. Any unilateral commitment, statement or other act by the United Kingdom should be compatible with the letter and the spirit of the Withdrawal Agreement and must not hamper its implementation. Such an extension cannot be used to start negotiations on the future relationship.”
This means that there are no negotiations to improve the Withdrawal Agreement because they are not permitted, under the terms of the extension. Johnson’s recent assertions that such negotiations have occurred are themselves in breach of the terms of the Council decision, since they are assuredly designed to ‘hamper its implementation’.
A general election in the UK now looks inevitable, since Johnson has lost the ability to run the clock down and crash out against the wishes of parliament. That means an election date in November chosen by the opposition, with Johnson forced to seek another extension from the European Council. With the legal and political establishment rooting around for a copy of the constitution (none is available), there could be further twists and turns next week before parliament is suspended, but the UK’s future relationship with Europe most likely depends on the outcome of a November election.
The realignment of the UK party system along the fault-line of Europe is taking place in real time. The Tory party under Johnson has shifted to a full anti-Europe stance, with the expulsion of 21 centrist MPs last week and the retirements of several others. The fateful decision of David Cameron in 2013 to promise a referendum, having taken fright at the rise on the right of Nigel Farage’s Ukip, has resulted in the Tories becoming Ukip in fear of Farage’s latest incarnation as the Brexit Party, winners at the polls in May’s European Parliament elections.
The chancellor announced a full 180-degree U-turn on budget policy last week, promising to outspend Labour under various headings, to barely a whimper – traditional left-right divisions no longer matter and the Tory brand can suddenly do without the fiscal rectitude ingredient.
The Tories face seat losses in Scotland where their popular leader, Ruth Davidson, has headed for the hills, a few more in Wales and their DUP allies could drop a couple to the Alliance Party in Northern Ireland. A Tory majority thus requires a big showing in England, where some Tory seats are threatened by the unambiguously pro-Europe Liberal Democrats.
If Farage’s new Brexit Party stands candidates against the Tories, there could be no majority for Johnson and another trip to the polls for a second referendum. Farage may do so if Johnson is forced to seek an extension from Brussels and they would campaign as the only true Brexiteers. Labour has prevaricated longest, inching slowly towards a pro-Europe position against, it appears, the inclination of leader Jeremy Corbyn. The election could see four main parties (Tories, Brexiteers, Lib Dems and Labour) lining up in a re-run of the 2016 Remain versus Leave referendum, with squabbles over tactical voting pacts, bad faith and backstabbing, and the outcome anyone’s guess under the first-past-the-post voting system.
Best picture of the week by a distance was Jacob Rees-Mogg, elevated by Johnson to leader of the house, lolling on the front bench, a cross between a sun-bathing seal and a stick insect, which drew the ire of the defenestrated Nicholas Soames, 37 years a Tory MP, ex-minister, the grandson of Winston Churchill and a decent phrase-maker like grandpa.
Describing Rees-Mogg’s behaviour as repulsive, Soames said: “He is in serious danger of believing his own shtick. He is an absolute fraud, a living example of what a moderately cut double-breasted suit and a decent tie can do with an ultra-posh voice and a bit of ginger stuck up his arse. I thought it was bloody bad manners and he of all people should know better. He has had all the advantages… I wanted to kick him firmly in the arse and say, ‘What the hell do you think you are playing at? Sit up’.”
Soames a fellow Etonian, clearly unimpressed with Rees-Mogg’s posture, did not like Jacob’s contribution to the debate either: “The lowest form of student union hackery, insolence and bad manners.” Should be a fun election on the Tory side.
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Home » Analysis & Comment » Colm McCarthy: 'The Brexit blame game'
Colm McCarthy: 'The Brexit blame game'
It will be clear within days whether October 31 will see a UK crash-out from the European Union, and the blame game in Ireland centres around the adequacy of Government preparations. The Government must downplay the extent of preparedness to avoid feeding the ‘no problem’ narrative of Brexiteers and the Irish blame game is rather phoney as a result.
No critic has identified any feasible unilateral action open to the Irish Government which avoids border controls with Northern Ireland sooner or later, short of contemplating withdrawal from the internal market, effectively resigning from the EU.
Unless the UK chooses some form of post-Brexit close alignment, such as the so-called Norway option, there will be controls at each EU external border, including the land divide in Ireland. The Norway option was briefly available for the UK immediately after the 2016 referendum, but that ship has sailed. The Sinn Fein MEP Matt Carthy has been calling for the Government to simply refuse to install border controls. But governments must choose from the items on the menu, and there is no option combining a leaky border and continued membership in the EU’s internal market. The European Union’s defence of the backstop has been over-sold as exclusively about solidarity with Ireland. It is principally an EU requirement to insulate the single market from a UK-sized hole in its border.
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A different pre-emptive blame game now dominates politics in the UK. The fundamental delusion of Brexit, that the process would be easy, survived the referendum campaign and persists in the public mind more than three years later. Its current manifestation is Boris Johnson’s blustering promise to ‘get it over with’, deal or no deal. Opinion polls and focus groups confirm the prevalence of the utterly mistaken impression that the Brexit dilemma ends, and will disappear from the headlines, the day after the UK’s departure. Some people apparently still confuse no-deal with the walk-away option at a used car lot.
Whether Johnson secures a new withdrawal agreement or the UK crashes out, the process of disentanglement will occupy several more years, perhaps a decade, and the conduct of British policy ensures the process will lack goodwill and trust.
The Brexit Phrase of the Week Award goes to Scottish barrister Aidan O’Neill, who accused Johnson of ‘incontinent mendacity’, a stylish alternative to ‘inveterate lying’. Johnson’s current lie asserts the UK’s continuing engagement in ‘negotiations’ with the European Union which would, but for uncooperative MPs in the House of Commons, deliver a satisfactory result. Everybody who could possibly be aware of any such negotiations has denied their existence. That such a demonstrated lie has sustained the prime minister for over a month is a measure of the dysfunction wrought by Brexit on the UK’s politics and media.
In its decision extending the operative UK departure date to October 31, the European Council decided, on April 10 and with the agreement of the UK government, as follows: “This extension excludes any re-opening of the Withdrawal Agreement. Any unilateral commitment, statement or other act by the United Kingdom should be compatible with the letter and the spirit of the Withdrawal Agreement and must not hamper its implementation. Such an extension cannot be used to start negotiations on the future relationship.”
This means that there are no negotiations to improve the Withdrawal Agreement because they are not permitted, under the terms of the extension. Johnson’s recent assertions that such negotiations have occurred are themselves in breach of the terms of the Council decision, since they are assuredly designed to ‘hamper its implementation’.
A general election in the UK now looks inevitable, since Johnson has lost the ability to run the clock down and crash out against the wishes of parliament. That means an election date in November chosen by the opposition, with Johnson forced to seek another extension from the European Council. With the legal and political establishment rooting around for a copy of the constitution (none is available), there could be further twists and turns next week before parliament is suspended, but the UK’s future relationship with Europe most likely depends on the outcome of a November election.
The realignment of the UK party system along the fault-line of Europe is taking place in real time. The Tory party under Johnson has shifted to a full anti-Europe stance, with the expulsion of 21 centrist MPs last week and the retirements of several others. The fateful decision of David Cameron in 2013 to promise a referendum, having taken fright at the rise on the right of Nigel Farage’s Ukip, has resulted in the Tories becoming Ukip in fear of Farage’s latest incarnation as the Brexit Party, winners at the polls in May’s European Parliament elections.
The chancellor announced a full 180-degree U-turn on budget policy last week, promising to outspend Labour under various headings, to barely a whimper – traditional left-right divisions no longer matter and the Tory brand can suddenly do without the fiscal rectitude ingredient.
The Tories face seat losses in Scotland where their popular leader, Ruth Davidson, has headed for the hills, a few more in Wales and their DUP allies could drop a couple to the Alliance Party in Northern Ireland. A Tory majority thus requires a big showing in England, where some Tory seats are threatened by the unambiguously pro-Europe Liberal Democrats.
If Farage’s new Brexit Party stands candidates against the Tories, there could be no majority for Johnson and another trip to the polls for a second referendum. Farage may do so if Johnson is forced to seek an extension from Brussels and they would campaign as the only true Brexiteers. Labour has prevaricated longest, inching slowly towards a pro-Europe position against, it appears, the inclination of leader Jeremy Corbyn. The election could see four main parties (Tories, Brexiteers, Lib Dems and Labour) lining up in a re-run of the 2016 Remain versus Leave referendum, with squabbles over tactical voting pacts, bad faith and backstabbing, and the outcome anyone’s guess under the first-past-the-post voting system.
Best picture of the week by a distance was Jacob Rees-Mogg, elevated by Johnson to leader of the house, lolling on the front bench, a cross between a sun-bathing seal and a stick insect, which drew the ire of the defenestrated Nicholas Soames, 37 years a Tory MP, ex-minister, the grandson of Winston Churchill and a decent phrase-maker like grandpa.
Describing Rees-Mogg’s behaviour as repulsive, Soames said: “He is in serious danger of believing his own shtick. He is an absolute fraud, a living example of what a moderately cut double-breasted suit and a decent tie can do with an ultra-posh voice and a bit of ginger stuck up his arse. I thought it was bloody bad manners and he of all people should know better. He has had all the advantages… I wanted to kick him firmly in the arse and say, ‘What the hell do you think you are playing at? Sit up’.”
Soames a fellow Etonian, clearly unimpressed with Rees-Mogg’s posture, did not like Jacob’s contribution to the debate either: “The lowest form of student union hackery, insolence and bad manners.” Should be a fun election on the Tory side.
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