This cycle, the arguments for Democratic strength cut against the conventional wisdom that the party in power struggles in midterms.

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By Nate Cohn

Just about every election cycle, there’s an argument for why, this time, things might be different — different from expectations based on historical trends and key factors like the state of the economy or the president’s approval rating.

The arguments are often pretty plausible. After all, every cycle is different. There’s almost always something unprecedented about a given election year — in just the last few cycles, the pandemic, the first female presidential major party nominee and the first Black president were all truly novel. There’s always a way to spin up a rationale for why old rules won’t apply.

In the end, history usually prevails. That’s a good thing to keep in mind right now as Democrats show strength that seems entirely at odds with the long history of the struggles of the president’s party in midterm elections.

But this cycle, there really is something different — or at the very least, there is something different about the reasons “this cycle might be different.”

This cycle, the arguments for Democratic strength cut at the heart of the underlying theories for why the party in power struggles in midterms.

The State of the 2022 Midterm Elections

With the primaries winding down, both parties are starting to shift their focus to the general election on Nov. 8.

And that gives me a little more pause about blowing them off.

A choice, not a referendum

If there’s a saying that captures why midterms go so poorly for the president’s party, it’s the idea that “midterms are a referendum, not a choice.” If it’s a referendum, the Democrats are in trouble. After all, President Biden’s approval rating is in the low 40s.

But this year, there’s a pretty good reason to think this won’t just be a referendum: Donald J. Trump.

Consider this: “Donald Trump” still earns more Google search interest than “Joe Biden.” It’s nothing like prior midterms, when the attention was focused all but exclusively on the president. These midterms certainly are different.

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