A run of severe storms might be nearing an end.

Forecasters said Wednesday that the conditions that have spawned tornadoes and thunderstorms across the country appeared to be easing and that the extreme weather might fade — at least for a little while — before the weekend.

But nearly 40 million people still faced an “enhanced” risk for severe storms on Wednesday, according to the Storm Prediction Center, a part of the National Weather Service. The center posted the advisory for parts of Arkansas, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Illinois, Maryland, Missouri, New Jersey, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Texas and West Virginia.

Another 44 million people were at “slight” risk, including people in cities like Cincinnati, Indianapolis and New York.

[Here’s what you can do when tornadoes are threatening your area.]

Tornadoes were possible, especially within the enhanced risk zone, along with what forecasters described as “very large hail.” Forecasters were far more optimistic about Thursday, when only a handful of states were expected to face “marginal” risk, as well as Friday.

Locations of Tornadoes Reported in the Past 12 Days

Source: National Weather Service

By The New York Times

The atmospheric calming will take hold after a tragic, protracted stretch of storms in the worst year for tornado deaths since 2014. Tuesday was the record-setting 12th consecutive day when the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration received at least eight reports of tornadoes, and tornadoes have been linked to at least seven deaths this month, pushing the year’s tornado fatality toll to 38.

[There were more than 500 tornadoes reported in 30 days. Read more about the unrelenting stretch here.]

The powerful, and often violent, storms were fueled by a high-pressure area that pulled the Gulf of Mexico’s warm, moist air into the central United States, where it combined with the effects of a trough trapped over the Rockies, which included strong winds. And to the mounting anxiety of meteorologists, those conditions did not change quickly.

Climate change is increasingly linked to extreme weather, but limited historical information, especially when compared with temperature data that goes back more than a century, has made it difficult for researchers to determine whether rising temperatures are making tornadoes more common and severe.

At the same time, researchers have found that tornadoes are increasingly clustered in short periods of time.

“We’re seeing more tornadoes on days in which we see tornadoes,” said Patrick Marsh, the warning coordination meteorologist at the Storm Prediction Center and a co-author of a study on the subject that was published in the journal Science in 2014. “And since we’re in a pattern right now where we’re seeing tornadoes every day, we’re seeing more of them.”

So it has been across the country lately. On Tuesday, a “convective day,” a 24-hour period government forecasters use to track conditions, there were 19 tornado reports — an unnerving figure, but an improvement from the 55 reports of the day before.

Some of the worst weather on Tuesday happened as evening fell in Kansas, where at least a dozen people were injured in the area around Lawrence, home of the University of Kansas. The authorities did not immediately report any fatalities, but there was substantial devastation in some communities, including Linwood.

Although the country might see fewer tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in the coming days, flooding is expected to remain a risk in some states, including Arkansas and Oklahoma. Some 77 river gauges, all of them in the Midwest and the South, were in “major flooding” stage on Wednesday, the government said.

[Braggs, a town of in rural Oklahoma, has become a virtual island. Floodwaters have nearly surrounded it, cutting off residents, who have formed an ad hoc emergency response network.]

Source: Read Full Article