Virus cases and rates are plunging, and vaccination is rising, but one doctor cautioned, “We still have a long way to go.”

By Sharon Otterman and Joseph Goldstein

After months of persistently high coronavirus caseloads, New York City appears to have finally reached a turning point. The city’s second wave is ebbing, a half-year after it began, New York City’s health commissioner, Dr. Dave Chokshi, said.

Throughout April, virus cases, hospitalizations and deaths have all been declining, which epidemiologists attribute to the climbing rate of vaccination as well as the arrival of warm weather, drawing people outdoors.

From a second-wave peak of nearly 8,000 cases in a single day in January, New York City is now averaging about 2,000 virus cases per day. Public health officials say that by July, if the city stays on its current trajectory, that number could drop to below 600 cases a day, perhaps lower.

But they also warn that uneven vaccination coverage could lead to a situation where the virus persists in some corners of the city, but not others. Manhattan, the borough with the highest median household income, is far more vaccinated than the Bronx, the poorest, reflecting vaccine hesitancy in some parts of the city and underscoring the longstanding inequalities in health care that the virus has laid bare.

And there are signs that the pace of vaccinations is slowing. So far 52 percent of adults across the city have received at least one dose.

“We can’t mistake progress for victory, and these next two months in particular are critical ones with respect to our vaccination campaign and with our goals of reaching every single New Yorker that we can,” said Dr. Chokshi in an interview Tuesday. “We are going to redouble our efforts with respect to thinking about access and further ensuring that the vaccine is accessible as possible.”

A long second wave

The second wave in New York has not been as severe as the devastating first wave that hit the city in March and April 2020. But epidemiologists and public health officials are surprised at how long it has lasted.

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